ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txwatcher91]

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.

The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.[/quote]

I respectfully disagree..If the initialized position is wrong,the rest of the run is wrong.[/quote]

There is no LLC so how can a position be wrong. QS showed that position this morning.[/quote]

QS showed the circulation over or just north of PR. We don't know there isn't an LLC, there are 340-350 winds over DR being reported so there is likely one somewhere, but it is probably weak.

[Blown Away]

I know the NHC says 92L is moving WNW, I just don't see it. IMO, due west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Seems like convecton is starting to reduce in size just a little as it start to spill over into DR, 12z GFS is very interesting and should not be thrown out of the window just because the intial starting point showed a broad low with a center further south, it gets it right at 6hrs...

[gatorcane]

The nonexistent shear gives the impression of a firework exploding. check out this WV image. Wow:

[txwatcher91]

Seems like convecton is starting to reduce in size just a little as it start to spill over into DR, 12z GFS is very interesting and should not be thrown out of the window just because the intial starting point showed a broad low with a center further south, it gets it right at 6hrs...

How can you say that, it is S of the DR tip while it appears to be E or slighly N of the DR currently?

[Aric Dunn]

anyway this will make it easier for .. punta cana has a NNW wind the center cannot be directly east of there http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html..

It can't?

So...you know the frictional effects at Punta Cana? You know for a fact that the winds follow the pressure gradient there and that some local topography doesn't alter them in some way? You also know for a fact that the sfc feature isn't elongated?

I don't know all of that. I do know I have observed (put them on the form 10 and the 3803) winds from the west when the pressure gradient said they should be from the north....especially when they are 10 kts.

You have to know a lot about a sfc observing site before you start making assumptions such as yours.

alright you got me on the frictional part should have elaborated ... my error

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[
The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.[/quote]

I respectfully disagree..If the initialized position is wrong,the rest of the run is wrong.[/quote]

There is no LLC so how can a position be wrong. QS showed that position this morning.[/quote]

QS showed the circulation over or just north of PR. We don't know there isn't an LLC, there are 340-350 winds over DR being reported so there is likely one somewhere, but it is probably weak.[/quote]

We don't even know where a possible center is now. 92L could end up forming south of the GFS track. How can you say with certainty it is wrong and other models are better?

[Air Force Met]

Agree with you AFM, all I see is a curved rainband there. No evidence of rotation. Winds across eastern DR are from about 340-350 degrees now, indicating a position very near the eastern tip of the DR, perhaps 18.6N/68.25W. It does look better organized than it has for days. But I'm not so sure it'll be destroyed by the DR or eastern Cuba. It won't develop/intensify much the next 48 hours, but once it moves north of Cuba on Sunday afternoon it may spin up rapidly. On the other hand, I won't be TOO disappointed if I don't have to work 16 hours a day Sat/Sun.

That is what I see...a curved band. There might be a vortice. The place to watch is the mona passsage.

I do think it will survive the trip across the DR...and I am looking forward to my weekend as well...which I did not expect to have yesterday

[txwatcher91]

We don't even know where a possible center is now. 92L could end up forming south of the GFS track. How can you say with certainty it is wrong and other models are better?

Because the NHC said themselves the center is between DR and PR and moving WNW, I would trust them more than this "skewed" run of the GFS.

[ekal]

But the models show it in the clear late Saturday with landfall at the earliest on late Monday or Tuesday IF it hit Miami area, if it is further east it would have even more time over water.

That depends upon the model used. But the consensus (CONU) shows it clearing Hispaniola on Saturday and then continuing across Eastern Cuba on Sunday. But, even if it did emerge late Saturday, you are still going to need 12-24 hours for the system to organize, and if the LLC dissipates, even longer.

I hope I am right, too, Gator. Nobody needs a hurricane, and there will already be devastating mudslides in Hispaniola as 92L tracks there. Agreed that the weather enthusiasts are, for the most part, the only segment of the population paying 92L much heed for now.

[Dean4Storms]

Tampa gets hit on 12Z GFS

[KWT]

Of course will be interesting to see where it gets north of Cuba, the 12z GFS has thrown a spanner in the works a little bit.

Also that 6hrs position is what maybe 30 miles to far to the SW, hardly a big deal, of course it may make a slight difference down the raod but synoptic set-up is roughly the same still.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

We don't even know where a possible center is now. 92L could end up forming south of the GFS track. How can you say with certainty it is wrong and other models are better?

Because the NHC said themselves the center is between DR and PR and moving WNW, I would trust them more than this "skewed" run of the GFS.

A possible center was there.

[Just Joshing You]

The nonexistent shear gives the impression of a firework exploding. check out this WV image. Wow:

That is an insane looking picture.. wow.

[txwatcher91]

But the models show it in the clear late Saturday with landfall at the earliest on late Monday or Tuesday IF it hit Miami area, if it is further east it would have even more time over water.

That depends upon the model used. But the consensus (CONU) shows it clearing Hispaniola on Saturday and then continuing across Eastern Cuba on Sunday. But, even if it did emerge late Saturday, you are still going to need 12-24 hours for the system to organize, and if the LLC dissipates, even longer.

I hope I am right, too, Gator. Nobody needs a hurricane, and there will already be devastating mudslides in Hispaniola as 92L tracks there. Agreed that the weather enthusiasts are, for the most part, the only segment of the population paying 92L much heed for now.

I am basing my opinion off the Euro and GFDL, not the other models as they have been wildly flipping over the past few days. I am going to stick with the consistent models for now.

[KWT]

Also once it does clear the islands, wherever it is, I think we are going to see some pretty rapid strengthening with such a good upper atmospheric set-up and hot waters...

[HURAKAN]

[bvigal]

decided to move this to recon discussion

[gatorcane]

Its just a strong wave right???

Somehow I still doubt it

[ekal]

I am basing my opinion off the Euro and GFDL, not the other models as they have been wildly flipping over the past few days. I am going to stick with the consistent models for now.

The only reason I am taking CONU over an excellent track model like GFDL is that the latter model initialized the system to the east of PR at 6z. That leads to a forecast track just north of PR, north of Hispaniola, and in much better shape for strengthening. However, it looks like our LLC is forming in the Mona Passage, to the south of the GFDL's forecast track.

We will have to see what GFDL says at 12z.