ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

she will probably be one of those systems that land has very minimal affect on.. it is moving fast and is in a great environment .. the RI if someone can find is probably pretty high right now

[Ivanhater]

Time and time again we have seen center relocations, especially with the weak LLC it has now will be disrupted by land tonight and most of the energy it to the NE, classic example of center relocation...

its not weak though.

Yes, the center is, most of the winds are removed from the center in the deeper convection

[LAwxrgal]

Well, intensity forecasting isn't an exact science. Who knows what shape this thing will be in once it crosses the Yucatan. So they're erring on the side of caution.

[lrak]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.

how will this happen?

[cheezyWXguy]

Dolly just got a very deep blob over her center...black topped. If this goes just slightly north of forecast, CC, watch out!

[Brent]

:uarrow: Conservative....BUT smart for now

Exactly, the NHC always goes smartly conservative when a storm first develops. I don't have much doubt that if it makes it off the Yucatan with good structure it won't become at least a hurricane.

and please remember intensity is very hard to predict.

[HURAKAN]

[lrak]

Time and time again we have seen center relocations, especially with the weak LLC it has now will be disrupted by land tonight and most of the energy it to the NE, classic example of center relocation...

its not weak though.

Yes, the center is, most of the winds are removed from the center in the deeper convection

have you looked at a satellite loop lately?

[ColdFusion]

I'm so tired of some people assuming that this may become a major hurricane. Intensity will depend on the structure as it enters the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Aren't you equally tired of people making statements like this about the storm?

This one's done.

[Aric Dunn]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.

how will this happen?

its actually partly do to physics.

[lrak]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.

how will this happen?

its actually partly do to physics.

im reading?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.

how will this happen?

If the center finds it's way into the deep convection to the north the same forecast track extrapolated to the north would miss or just go over the tip of the Yucatan.

[Hyperstorm]

Folks, there are too many unfounded speculations. NHC should be conservative since this is the first advisory being issued. For the sake of everything, we may not even have a well-defined LLC tonight. Tropics are very unpredictable. I suspect as we see the system hold together over the next 24 hours, the landfall intensity forecast will undecidedly increase.

Gulf SSTs 85*...

[Aric Dunn]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.

how will this happen?

its actually partly do to physics.

im reading?[/quote]


what?

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm so tired of some people assuming that this may become a major hurricane. Intensity will depend on the structure as it enters the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Aren't you equally tired of people making statements like this about the storm?

This one's done.

Detailed reasoning followed that one liner. I recognize that initial forecast busted, primarily because of uncertainties regarding the upper low's speed.

I agree with Hyperstorm.

[Chacor]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

[Aric Dunn]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

those are old .. whats the link

[Ivanhater]

have you looked at a satellite loop lately?

Lol..No of course not..most of the energy is to the NE and like many storms that hit the yucatan, they relocate..just a fact, not saying it WILL happen, but this is a classic setup for it

[weatherguru18]

It would have to relocate a good ways north or take one heck of a jog to the nw to miss the yucatan. I'm not looking for that to happen.

[Chacor]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

those are old .. whats the link

That's the 12z run. Those are the most recent.