ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

cancun radar.. i will make radar animations for a while later today as the center gets closer .. its a pain to do but all you have to do is save each image and go to blibs.com and make a gif animation.

[RL3AO]

Here is why the center moving to the north just a little bit is important.

[vaffie]

short periods of time over land can help young systems develop, however, for the friction with the land 'cleans' up broad poorly defined llcs, makes them sharper and more more likely to intensify after they get back over the water.

[kevin]

short periods of time over land can help young systems develop, however, for the friction with the land 'cleans' up broad poorly defined llcs, makes them sharper and more more likely to intensify after they get back over the water.

I've never seen this demonstrated anywhere.

[RL3AO]

Nice convection developing over center.

[weatherguru18]

Here's a look at the ridge and approaching troph. This may help turn Dolly more NW.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[KatDaddy]

It can also blast them apart and form a new one in deeper convection. You never really know how land interaction will affect a system. Isidore was a prime example.

[njweather]

From the latest NHC discussion:

AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES
THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS.

Slower movement and favorable environmental conditions... not a good combo!

[funster]

If Dolly becomes a stronger hurricane is it more likely to follow any weakness to the North and into Texas or does strength make it more likely to head more to the west into Mexico?

[chadtm80]

[jasons2k]

Here's a look at the ridge and approaching troph. This may help turn Dolly more NW.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

Yes, concerning. If Dolly rides the northern side of the models (as she has for days), and especially if she can intensify more than the models currently forecast, she may get tugged more by that trough and turn more to the N-NW. Right now I'd be more concerned with the right half of the cone, not the left.

[Chacor]

Reminder that the prediction/forecast challenge is still on. Thread for Dolly is up: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102013

You can still enter at any time for the next day.

[jasons2k]

If Dolly becomes a stronger hurricane is it more likely to follow any weakness to the North and into Texas or does strength make it more likely to head more to the west into Mexico?

It would likely mean a shift the to the right.

[KatDaddy]

You got that right! We remember Rita and Katrina

[funster]

If Dolly becomes a stronger hurricane is it more likely to follow any weakness to the North and into Texas or does strength make it more likely to head more to the west into Mexico?

It would likely mean a shift the to the right.

Thanks and for Texas.

[T-man]

Here ya go, for those of you who like gifs.

[njweather]

Is anyone else concerned by this?

WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND
CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1608.shtml?

Would a slower system pull N or S?

[HURAKAN]

If it's a strong system at that point, it will pull north.

[HURAKAN]

[Smurfwicked]

If it's a strong system at that point, it will pull north.

Ok.. TS is moving NW, to the east of that is something pulling it slowing it down, if its capable of slowing it down due to it being pulled, wouldn't that mean the direction would be steered more North than West?