ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KatDaddy]

Convection is exploding over the LLC. Now we are off to the races for intensification

[Category 5]

short periods of time over land can help young systems develop, however, for the friction with the land 'cleans' up broad poorly defined llcs, makes them sharper and more more likely to intensify after they get back over the water.

I've never seen this or heard of this.

[cpdaman]

Here ya go, for those of you who like gifs.

awesome pics

looks like the ULL is entering a favorable position for Dolly

she should would strengthen a lot faster tonite were she to just graze the yucatan (i don't see that happening)

[Cape Verde]

Here on Sunday, the center of the forecast track is essentially Brownsville.

I'd be willing to guess that on Wednesday morning, that won't be the case. That's the fun part about tropical weather. If we knew for sure where it would hit and with what intensity we could simply focus on providing advice to the landfall area.

Instead, a lot of us living along the Gulf Coast follow every new tidbit of information, every bit of speculation by the pro mets, each new model run between now and when landfall is clearly defined. It's curiousity, wonder, and also a bit of fear, that keeps me here this time of year.

[RL3AO]

TCHP



SSTs

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[Brent]

Latest.

That is some blowup. So much for being exposed...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

Um...have you looked at the NHCs cone?

[KatDaddy]

And I hope your are correct PT. I dont want it and I know you dont want it either.

[Wx_Warrior]

When was the last time Brownsville took a hit with a Cat 1-2?

[Portastorm]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

In the next 24 hours? Yeah, you bet. In the next week? Questionable.

[Brent]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

WOW, that's quite a statement.

[tpr1967]

I sure hope she stays to the south, don't need her going near the oil platforms or refiners. If you no what i mean.

[RL3AO]

Here we go.

http://www.cnn.com/

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

Um...have you looked at the NHCs cone?

Sure, and I've also not seen a single model that even take it north of the border basically. I don't think the NHC will have any choice but to push the track further south with the next updates.

This is just my opinion and if significant intensification occurs once in the gulf things could change.

[Category 5]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

And your reasoning for that is.........?

[Portastorm]

When was the last time Brownsville took a hit with a Cat 1-2?

I would say Allen in 1980 but I think that was more than a Cat 2. I dunno, they did have Cat 1-2 hurricane conditions in 1967 with Beulah even though the storm came in south of Brownsville.

[lebron23]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

Um...have you looked at the NHCs cone?

Sure, and I've also not seen a single model that even take it north of the border basically. I don't think the NHC will have any choice but to push the track further south with the next updates.

This is just my opinion and if significant intensification occurs once in the gulf things could change.

most of those models are not updated.
there are only a couple and those are good tropical models.
we have to wait untill 18Z-00Z