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Tropical Storm Hanna is near New York City. Category 4 Major Hurricane Ike nears the Turks and Caicos.
Near New York City….Northwestern Atlantic….Tropical Storm Hanna. Hanna is rapidly moving to the northeast. Hanna is near New York City right now and will be near Boston tonight. As Hanna picks up ground speed, it will gain wind speed and lose tropical characteristics. Hanna will bring tropical storm force winds to all of the east coast of the US north of New York City tonight. Heavy rain will be affecting the east coast until it leaves land. By Sunday, Hanna will have left the US and its tropical characteristics, and by Monday Hanna will be out to sea. No graphic at this time.
Nearing the Turks and Caicos and Great Inagua Island…Western Atlantic….Category 4 Major Hurricane Ike. Ike quickly intensified today as it moved closer to the Bahamas. Ike has winds of about 135 mph, and is likely to continue strengthening tonight and tomorrow. Conditions are rapidly deteriorating in the Bahamas and in Hispaniola.
In the short term….A triplet of high Sea Surface Temperatures and Ocean Heat Content, and very low wind shear should allow Ike to maintain, and intensify itself into a very strong category 4 hurricane. Landfall in Cuba is about the only thing that will keep Ike’s intensity down. The landfall in Cuba, depending on when and where, could be as strong as 150mph. Cuba will be taking its second Major Hurricane hit in less than a week.
Storm surge will be very high in the surge prone areas of the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, and in Cuba. Surge could be as high as 15-18’ with much higher waves. These waves will be felt as far as the Florida coast in the coming days, and these waves will cause a high rip current threat across the entire area.
Rain totals will also be very high, running at a minimum of 4” across the area with a maximum of 20” of rain in the mountainous areas, and in the areas where Ike is moving at its slowest. Flash-floods could occur in all of these areas, and chances are higher the mountainous areas.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Turks and Caicos, and the central and lower Bahamas, to the eastern third of Cuba. Those in this area should have all preparations finished to should be rushing them to completion as conditions are, or will be rapidly deteriorating with hurricane force winds likely and very heavy rains likely.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect on the northern coast of Hispaniola. Those in this area will be experiencing tropical storm force winds and more heavy rain…and likely more floods in areas affected by numerous tropical cyclones of the recent past.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect in east central Cuba on both the north and southern coast. Those in this area should be expecting hurricane force winds in 36-48 hours. Any preparations need to be finished immediately.
In the long run…The Florida Keys have ordered mandatory evacuations of all non-residents. Further evacuations may be issued in the coming days as Ike nears on the eastern and central gulf coast. If an evacuation order is issued for your area, you MUST evacuate. Local officials have figured that your life is at risk. If your reasoning is that Gustav did not hit as hard or was as bad as officials thought, or that it was a hassle to leave…and you are not going to leave because of that, you are making a life threatening decision. All storms are different, and will bring different conditions. Do not make yourself vulnerable.
On to the Track….Ike ‘s track will be very tricky in the days to come. The reason for this is that it relies on a number of factors including a weakness in a ridge and a trough coming in from the northwest. For this reason I am not going to issue a single track, but a pair of scenarios. In either case, Ike will be traversing Cuba.
Scenario #1. Ike stays quick and south. If Ike continues on a brisk rate, it has a better chance of making it further west and further north in the long run. In this case, it would be another close call for New Orleans.
Scenario #2. Ike slows down and north. If Ike slows down, it has a better chance of being picked up by the trough and taken to the northeast in the Gulf of Mexico. In this case, it would be a Florida storm in some case.
Take the area between the two scenarios as my forecast. You may ask why I am so far right, and that is because I do not believe the trough is being picked up enough by the models, and I also believe there may be a pendulum effect within the models to come.
Fact789-Jonathan
**Any and all questions and comments are encouraged and appreciated**
