ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[njweather]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

Um...have you looked at the NHCs cone?

Sure, and I've also not seen a single model that even take it north of the border basically. I don't think the NHC will have any choice but to push the track further south with the next updates.

This is just my opinion and if significant intensification occurs once in the gulf things could change.

Yes, and if you look at the two posts after yours in the Model Runs thread, you'll see that the models you're referring to were initialized 3-4 degrees south of where the NHC initialized it just moments ago.

[southerngale]

Folks, we have deleted posts and even sent warnings concerning -removed- comments. Sometimes people really do have legitimate questions concerning their area, and it's natural to be more concerned about how a system could potentially affect you. Even if you do think someone is -removed-, just keep it to yourself, unless it's some crazy, wild prediction. Then use the "report post" feature. We get a lot of feedback from members who don't post often because they're afraid of the responses, being attacked, people getting short with them, etc. It shouldn't be that way. We want a comfortable atmosphere for everyone... pros to mere weather watchers.

Just keep the snide remarks to yourself.

[randge]

Say, cpdaman and all you other knowledgeable cats out there:

Is the ULL that cirrus-looking creature floating from right to left just north of the Yucatan Channel on the gif animation?

I'm just getting handle on all of this stuff.

Thanks, BTW, for all the edifying discussion the past week. I've been following closely and I've learned a lot.

[RL3AO]

Looks like an all Mexican event IMO.

Um...have you looked at the NHCs cone?

Sure, and I've also not seen a single model that even take it north of the border basically. I don't think the NHC will have any choice but to push the track further south with the next updates.

This is just my opinion and if significant intensification occurs once in the gulf things could change.

Maybe this will help.

[KWT]

Just a quick question since things have relaly moved on since 9hrs ago but why was 94L upgraded, did recon find a LLC?

[HURAKAN]

Just a quick question since things have relaly moved on since 9hrs ago but why was 94L upgraded, did recon find a LLC?

Yes and that's why we have Dolly!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Just a quick question since things have relaly moved on since 9hrs ago but why was 94L upgraded, did recon find a LLC?

Pretty Much.
I hope I get at least a rainband from Dolly. I just need her to move a little more north to get some nice showers.

[scotto]

When was the last time Brownsville took a hit with a Cat 1-2?

Was it Erika?

[PTrackerLA]

Ok I apologize for the bold statement I just looked at the models and NHC track before I got a chance to catch up with the latest posts. I immediately thought "well the track will be heading further south" but I see what everyone is saying about the initialization. Let's see what the models show this evening...*backs away from keyboard*....

[dwg71]

[/quote]


What about the nogaps that initiated too far north, does that mean it moves south? It was the only one having a texas landfall on that map??

Yes the start point is different, but the overall pattern is still the same. This seems to have been a pretty easy call from the get go. South TX/ Northern Mexico.

[Ptarmigan]

Helllloooo Dolly!!!!! Having three tropical systems at the same time in July is rather unusual and at the same time impressive.

[Smurfwicked]

I agree, the new models will most likely have a emphasis of Texas coast landfall.

I think probably closer to the center of the Texas coast too, with the highest probability of whats east of that location. JMO and my best guess!

[KWT]

True dwg71 but the 40-50 miles SW the models start may make a huge difference as to whether this hits the USA or Mexico, thats why a song and game is being made out of it IMO.

[Just Joshing You]

Helllloooo Dolly!!!!! Having three tropical systems at the same time in July is rather unusual and at the same time impressive.

Yea, too bad it didn't happen this year.. well, that African wave may give it a chance.

[gatorcane]

I agree, the new models will most likely have a emphasis of Texas coast landfall.

I think probably closer to the center of the Texas coast too, with the highest probability of whats east of that location. JMO and my best guess!

Agreed they are going to shift right. Anybody on the Texas coastline should keep a close watch. Just my opinion looking at synoptics and the mid-level trough that will dig into the Great Lakes.

I am a bit surprised the NHC leaves Dolly as a T.S through the forecast period though. With a projected anticyclone over the GOM and high SSTs there should be no reason why it can't be more than that.

There are no politics going on with this right?

[southerngale]

I agree, the new models will most likely have a emphasis of Texas coast landfall.

I think probably closer to the center of the Texas coast too, with the highest probability of whats east of that location. JMO and my best guess!

I don't think the models were initialized so far south to make THAT huge of an impact on track. I *think* we're ok over here.

[RL3AO]

Convection continues to fire directly over the center.

Java Loop

[weatherguru18]

I agree, the new models will most likely have a emphasis of Texas coast landfall.

I think probably closer to the center of the Texas coast too, with the highest probability of whats east of that location. JMO and my best guess!

Agreed they are going to shift right. Anybody on the Texas coastline should keep a close watch. Just my opinion looking at synoptics and the mid-level trough that will dig into the Great Lakes.

Exactly. A stronger system will want to pull northward anyway. Once that trough starts digging down from the Great Lakes, it may weaken the ridge enough for a more northerly componant. Based on that, I'd say Corpus to Matagorda Bay. Keep in mind that Rita's first cone was placed in deep south Texas. Then it shifted to Matagorda, then to Freeport, then to Galveston then finally to Sabine Pass. Let's just watch. More questions than answers currently.

[funster]

Convection continues to fire directly over the center.

Java Loop

Very impressive blowup.

[vaffie]

Convection continues to fire directly over the center.

Java Loop

wow, that's a beautiful loop. at this rate, it looks like all predicted intensification rates are way low...