NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[Squarethecircle]

No, it's a system that came off Australia a while ago and started to be tropical-ish.

[Pedro Fernández]

:uarrow: No, it's a system that came off Australia a while ago and started to be tropical-ish.

Thanks !

[HURAKAN]

Nicholas should be here very shortly.

[P.K.]

Still a tropical low.

AXAU02 APRF 121823
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1823 UTC 12/02/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 120.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards:
Speed of Movement: stationary
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0600: 15.1S 120.6E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 984
+24: 13/1800: 15.4S 120.8E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 974
+36: 14/0600: 15.6S 120.9E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 966
+48: 14/1800: 15.8S 121.1E: 130 [240]: 070 [130]: 956
+60: 15/0600: 16.3S 121.1E: 160 [295]: 080 [150]: 944
+72: 15/1800: 16.9S 120.9E: 190 [350]: 090 [165]: 932
REMARKS:
The system has shown signs of development overnight with a low level centre now
located near an area of deep, persistent convection.
The system is nearly stationary over very warm water and is under an area of low
to moderate shear.
Conditions are favourable for ongoing development and the system is likely to
develop into a cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
The models indicate the system is likely to be in a weak steering pattern for
the next 1 to 2 days before beginning a more southerly track in the longer term.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

BoM is predicting 98S to intensify pretty fast.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1841UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a tropical low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south [15.1S]
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal four east [120.4E]
Recent movement : Near stationary
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1800 UTC 13
February.

From 0600UTC 13 February winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre
with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.1 south 120.6 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.4 south 120.8 east
Central pressure 974 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 February 2008.


WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

BoM is predicting 98S to intensify pretty fast.

That forecast map only goes out to 48 hours but the 72 hour forecast has it forecast to reach cat 4.

[KWT]

Some very deep convection present with this system. Indeed they are forecasting this system to strengthen very quickly and no reason why it shouldn't either gven its under some very warm SST's presently.

[HURAKAN]

Some very deep convection present with this system. Indeed they are forecasting this system to strengthen very quickly and no reason why it shouldn't either gven its under some very warm SST's presently.

Agree, look how strong the convection is over the LLC.

[KWT]

IMO that looks like a tropical cyclone to me right now...must be massive heat content to produce such a large area of cold cloud tops.

[HURAKAN]

19S is here!

[KWT]

well there you go as I said an hour ago it did look like it had become a TC and that has indeed turned out to be the case. Now the queston is how fast will it strengthen from here?

[HURAKAN]

Nicholas should be around the corner.

[Squarethecircle]

Hehe, that was fast. I'm thinking hurricane strength sooner or later.. The heat content is good (around 30-31 C) and the shear is looking low once it makes the loop.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121051Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 19S IS EXP-
ECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER AFTER TAU 48
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A GEN-
ERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INCREASING SPEED. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121051Z FEB 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 121100) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND
132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

Not much movement expected.

[HURAKAN]

12/2030 UTC 15.0S 120.1E T3.0/3.0 19S -- South Indian Ocean

[Cyclenall]

I'm expecting it to strengthen rapidly as the forecast shows. I love the cloud top temperatures on it.

[Squarethecircle]

This has been a most impressive southern hemisphere season, if only for a just few notable storms.

[Cyclenall]

:uarrow: This has been a most impressive southern hemisphere season, if only for a just few notable storms.

So far it's been an average season in my view.

[Squarethecircle]

It depends. The Aussie season has sucked hard.