Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 915
WTIO30 FMEE 051825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/12/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 50.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/06 06 UTC: 12.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.3S/45.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 13.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.1S/42.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 14.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 15.4S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
JOKWE HAS MOVED WESTWARDS AT 8 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI PASS AT 1507Z AND 1613Z) SUGGEST THAT
JOKWE IS STRENGHENING WITH A WARM SPOT ON THE 85GHZ IMAGERY.
THEREFORE,
JOKWE IS UPGRADED ON THE HIGHER LEVEL OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS
WITH WINDS AT 45 KT. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE
CENTER CROSS T
HE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR NEAR DIEGO SUAREZ AND JOKWE COULD BE A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM, THE ASSOCIATED MSLP IS HIGHER THAN FOR SUCH AN
INTENSITY CLASSICAL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT
MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES), BUT EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
WEAK.
THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG
THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. JOKWE SHOULD BE AROUND
TAU
24 NEAR MAYOTTE ISLAND. AFTER HAVING CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, BETWEEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.=
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

It's been a while since a cyclone affected the Comoros, hasn't it?

Also, Jokwe could be a problem for Mozambique. They're already dealing with floods.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 888
WTIO30 FMEE 060035 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/12/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 49.2E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 12.6S/47.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 13.1S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 13.6S/43.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 14.1S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 15.1S/41.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 16.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful, compact storm.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 519
WTIO30 FMEE 060616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/12/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 48.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 080 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.8S/46.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 14.1S/44.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.3S/41.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.5S/41.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISORGANIZED WITHIN THE CROSS OVER NORTHERN
MALAGASY RELIEF AND SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER THAT THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS KEPT VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SYSTEM COULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ISLAND (PROBABLY LESS
THAN 80
NM OFFSHORE) NEXT NIGHT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT 48
HOURS AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Surprise, surprise!!!

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Pretty interesting how fast Jokwe organized.

[Crostorm]

[P.K.]

Up 25kts on the last advisory skipping STS status.

WTIO30 FMEE 061212

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 46.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 14.3S/44.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 14.7S/42.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 15.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 15.7S/40.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 17.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 19.3S/39.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- AND CI=4.5-
THIS LITTLE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINED VERY WELL DEFINED DESPITE THE CROSS OVER NORTHERN
MALAGASY RELIEF LAST NIGHT AND ALSO WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
IT SHOWS A IRREGULAR EYE SINCE 0730Z.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ISLAND (PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT
MORE THAN 100 KM OFFSHORE ) NEXT NIGHT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS ALONG MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE THEREAFTER.
A LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IS HOWEVER POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
UNDERGOING A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY.
MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE (CONFIRMED NY MEASURE
DURING THE CROSS NEAR DIEGO AND NOSY-BE STATIONS)

[HURAKAN]

Up 25kts on the last advisory skipping STS status.

That's quite an impressive achivement!!!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 46.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 46.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 46.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION
NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AFTER CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM ALL
AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS TRACK. GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
THIS TIME, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Pretty nice storm!

[Squarethecircle]

Looks like it's not doing as well now... something's not working out quite right, and the eyewall isn't there anymore.

[Squarethecircle]

Ok, never mind, just saw the most recent picture. Tiny, tiny eye with a tiny, tiny core:

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Madagascar hot spot.

[Squarethecircle]

Convective eyewall looks pretty weak, although the eye is still well defined... The air isn't particularly dry, either. Other than that, it looks very good.