South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

09/0230 UTC 13.7S 83.6E T4.0/4.0 23S -- South Indian Ocean





Looking excellent.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Mauritius have now named it.

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

65kts-974mb

[G.B.]

ZCZC 672
WTIO30 FMEE 090623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/13/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 83.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 15.2S/80.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 19.2S/78.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.4S/78.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/78.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/78.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
SHEAR HAS STRONGLY LESSEN DURING THE NIGHT (CF CIMSS DATA) AND SYSTEM
HAS
INTENSIFIED. ACCORDING LATEST MICROWAVE DATA, LLCC IS STILL
DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THE NOW BETTER DEFINED HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
IT
HAS BEEN NAMED "KAMBA" BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT
0300
UTC.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

[gigabyte89]

Looking good.

Hope it comes towards Mauritius and not go south as predicted ny Met France.

What u guys are thinking on it's trajectory forecast?

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

It looks like an eye!

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 724
WTIO30 FMEE 091240 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/13/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 82.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 16.1S/80.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 18.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

09/1900 UTC 15.4S 80.7E T4.5/4.5 KAMBA -- South Indian Ocean

Continues to intensify.

[HURAKAN]

The eye looks certainly interesting!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 383
WTIO20 FMEE 100023
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/03/2008
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 79.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP
TO 300 MN MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT
, AND UP TO 120 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
17.7S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2008/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
20.1S / 76.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS STRONGLY ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOWS
SIGNS
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

[G.B.]

Up to 80kts on NRL

[Chacor]

482
WTIO30 FMEE 100110

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 79.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/76.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.3S/76.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 23.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 24.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-

SYSTEM KEEPS ON STRENGTHENING. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (TRMM 1717Z AND AQUA
1944Z SHOW AN EYE PATTERN AND A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS
REPORTING AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SIGN-
IFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TILL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM.
AS TC 23S CONTINUES POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER, THE FIRST STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TPXS12 PGTW 100024

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 15.9S

D. 79.4E

E. FOUR/MET7

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (09/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

15A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. A CLOUD FILLED EYE TEMP OF
-86 DEGREES CELSIUS IS COLDER THAN ANY EYE TEMP ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE USING THE COLDEST EYE TEMP ON
THE SCALE WHICH IS W. SO A W EYE TEMP SURROUNDED BY A W
RING YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO MET/PT.

GEIS