NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[RL3AO]

[HURAKAN]

14/0830 UTC 9.2N 119.8E T2.5/2.5 02W -- West Pacific Ocean

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131921Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.7N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.2N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.7N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.1N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 119.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST
OF PUNTA BAJA HARBOR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

What does the color scale on the bottom mean. Sort of looks like it could be an SST map, but the number son the bottom don't seem right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Never mind.

Oceanic Heat Content.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 09.3N 119.2E SULU SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

JTWC has upgraded to Tropical Storm 02W, here's the prognostic discussion:

A. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THE 14/12Z
WARNING AND HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) TRACKED ACROSS THE SULU SEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC
FROM THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE STORM. THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO AID DEVELOPMENT BY PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
B. THE CURRENT STORM INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 02W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-
EASTERN ASIA NORTH OF LUZON.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 02W WILL BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. THE STORM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
AND TRACKS OVER THE WARM SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE STORM WILL REACH TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
C. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA WILL
BREAK DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 72, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN. THE NGPS AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PREDICTING THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE
NORTH, AND THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR TO THE CONSENSUS. THE
STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER HAINAN ISLAND NEAR TAU
120.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "AMBO"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 14 April 2008 Tropical Depression "AMBO" has accelerated and gained strength for the past six hours.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 70 kms Northeast of Puerto Princesa City
Coordinates: 10.3°N 118.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Tuesday evening: expected to be in the South China Sea or 500 kms Northwest of Puerto Princesa City
Wednesday evening: 500 kms East of Vietnam

Signal No. 1 Warnings...
Cuyo Island
Palawan
Calamian Group of Islands



Residents in coastal areas under signal number one are alerted against big waves generated by this tropical cyclone.

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.


Puerto Princesa, Philippines (40mi S of 02W)
Visibility: 9mi
Wind: 320° at 6kt
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 74°F
Pressure: 1005.9mb
Precipitaton: 0.67" in the past 6 hours
Weather: Light rain
Sky Condition: 4/8 stratus fractus at 1700ft, 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft


Cuyo, Philippines (300mi WSW of 02W)
Visibility: 12mi
Wind: 090° at 6kt
Temperature: 78°F
Dewpoint: 76°F
Pressure: 1009.6mb
Precipitaton: 0.16" in the past 6 hours
Weather: rain before, but not at, time of observation
Sky Condition: 4/8 cumulus at 1800ft, 8/8 altostratus at 8000ft

[senorpepr]

According to observations out of the Sibulan Airport in Dumaguete, they picked up 2.68" on rain during the passage of 02W.

An CWOP station about 2mi SW of the airport report 1.89" during the system.

[senorpepr]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I assume 'Ambo' is not the WMO name? It seems PAGASA doesn't follow the naming convention. Not sure why. Maybe to keep them in alphabetic order?



WMO names for NW Pac

(scroll down)

[P.K.]

They've got their own name list as it would cause confusion if they tried to give something a name from the WMO list and it didn't reach TS strength per RSMC Tokyo, as is the case so far with this system which is still a tropical depression.

[KWT]

Not bad looking system, wouldn't take much of a shift westwards in the track to bring it into Vietnam.

[HURAKAN]

I assume 'Ambo' is not the WMO name? It seems PAGASA doesn't follow the naming convention. Not sure why. Maybe to keep them in alphabetic order?

WMO names for NW Pac

(scroll down)

They're not the official office in the region, and they only name systems that affect a certain area around the Philippines, not the entire basin.

[HURAKAN]

14/1357 UTC 9.6N 118.6E T2.5/2.5 02W -- West Pacific Ocean

[jams]

hi everyone!
I'm a newbie from Hong Kong, to see you all around the world focusing on this storm!

Most of the models track 02W towards Hainan Island, except ECMWF which supports an early recurvature. Anyway, it's time for southern Chinese people to take action...

[HURAKAN]

hi everyone!
I'm a newbie from Hong Kong, to see you all around the world focusing on this storm!

Most of the models track 02W towards Hainan Island, except ECMWF which supports an early recurvature. Anyway, it's time for southern Chinese people to take action...

Welcome to the forum. Nice to see you early in the season. We will probably talk a lot as the season unfolds.

Most of the members of S2K are, like myself, from the United States and there is a great deal of attention to the tropical activity across the Atlantic Ocean. Nonetheless, we cover the entire planet and discuss all tropical systems in it.

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 141800

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 09.8N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

Puerto Princesa, Philippines (76mi W of 02W)
Time: 14th at 18Z
Visibility: 6mi
Wind: 320° at 12kt
Temperature: 74°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Pressure: 1003.6mb
Pressure rising, then falling rapidly over past 3 hrs -- net change -2.6mb
Precipitaton: 0.20" in the past 6 hours
Weather: Light rain
Sky Condition: 4/8 stratus fractus at 1700ft, 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft

[senorpepr]