WTIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.9N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.3N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.7N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES
AND A 271610Z AMSU IMAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 01B IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STORM WILL SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXERTS A COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND CAUSE TC 01B TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 01B WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DUE TO FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
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