NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 7.9N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 8.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 9.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 10.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 11.9N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.8N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 131.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH INDICATE THAT
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITIES AT TAUS 72 AND 96. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z,
081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WWPN20 KNES 072111

A. 03W (RAMMASUN)

B. 07/2030Z

C. 8.1N

D. 131.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/

H. REMARKS... DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING 0N LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. POSITION DIFFICULT IN IR IMAGERY WITH NO RECENT
MICROWAVE.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 08.4N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 10.6N 129.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 091800UTC 12.9N 128.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 101800UTC 16.5N 128.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[senorpepr]

TCNA21 RJTD 080000
CCAA 08000 47644 RAMMASUN(0802) 04086 11312 14246 225// 93404=


8.6N 131.2E T2.5 Moving 340 (NNW) at 4KT.


Looks like it's finally rounding the western edge of the subtropical ridge. I'll jump on board and say the Philippines will probably be spared from a direct landfall, but that won't eliminate the threat of floods and gusty winds from Mindanao and the Visayas.

[Chacor]

Why does the active storms list call this Tropical Storm Butchoy?

[senorpepr]

Why does the active storms list call this Tropical Storm Butchoy?

One of the admins changed it from 94W to TS Butchoy after PAGASA upgraded the system, but before JMA upgraded.

I'm sure they'll change it shortly...

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 08.6N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 11.0N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 100000UTC 14.3N 129.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 110000UTC 18.1N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 08.7N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 11.1N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 100000UTC 14.3N 129.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 110000UTC 18.1N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



evere Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY"(RAMMASUN)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 08 May 2008 Tropical Storm "Butchoy" has gain more strength as it remains over the Philippine Sea.
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 a.m.) 470 kms East of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Coordinates: 08.7°N, 130.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: Northwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Friday morning: 370 kms East of East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Saturday morning: 420 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes
Sunday morning: 660 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


It is expected to induce the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Visayas and Mindanao.

Residents in low lying areas and living near mountain slopes over areas are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashflood and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.




WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.1N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.3N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.9N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 131.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1090 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (RAMMASUN) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE STORM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
B. TS 03W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT DATA DISPLAYING 40 KNOTS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, EXCEPT FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN PRIOR TO TAU 120.
B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 12.
BEYOND THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR INDUCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING NORTH
OF THE STORM. TS 03W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AND THE STORM
TRACKS OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TAU 72, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID
IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
C. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TS 03W WILL BEGIN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA. TS 03W WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 120 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[wyq614]

From Chinese Meteorological Agency:

今年第2号热带风暴“威马逊”（RAMMASUN）今天凌晨在菲律宾以东的西北太平洋洋面上生成，今天上午8时风暴中心位于菲律宾丹达（TANDAG）以东大约560公里的洋面上，就是北纬8.6度，东经131.3度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒）。
　　
　　预计，今天中午到明天中午，风暴中心将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。该风暴对我国近海无影响。


Tropical Storm 0802 (Rammasun) reached TS intensity at midnight to the east of the Philippines. At 8am Beijing Time (UTC+8), it is centered at about 560km the east of Tandag City, Philippines, i.e. 8.6N 131.3E, the maximum sustained winds near the center is 8 bft (18m/s)

It is expected that, from midday today to midday tomorrow, the storm will move northward at a speed of 10-15 km/h, intensifying gradually. This storm won't affect the seas near China.

------------

今年第0802号台风(RAMMASUN) 05月08日14时(北京时间)，此台风的中心位置在北纬9.0度,东经131.3度,中心气压 995百帕,近中心最大风速20米/秒,移向 N ,移速 10公里/小时,七级大风圈半径200公里.

Tropical Storm 0802 (Rammasun) is centered at 9N, 131.3E at 14 hours Beijing Time on 8 May. Central Pressure 995hPa, maximum sustained winds near the center is 20m/s, move towards NORTH, speed 10km/h, 7 bft wind radii 200km.

[wyq614]

预测 0-12 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +12)
北北西 时速 8 公里 (NNW at 8km/h)
预测 05 月 08 日 20 时 (valid at 12 UTC 8 May)
中心在 北纬 9.4 度 东经 131.0 度 (centered at 9.4N 131.0E)
70%机率半径 70 公里 (70% probability radii is 70km)
预测 12-24 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +24)
北北西 时速 13 公里 (NNW at 13km/h)
预测 05 月 09 日 08 时 (valid at 00UTC 9 May)
中心在 北纬 10.8 度 东经 130.6 度 (centered at 10.8N 130.6E)
70%机率半径 130 公里 (70% probability radii is 130km)
预测 24-36 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +36)
北北西 时速 13 公里 (NNW at 13km/h)
预测 05 月 09 日 20 时 (valid at 12UTC 9 May)
中心在 北纬 12.1 度 东经 130.2 度 (centered at 12.1N 130.2E)
70%机率半径 180 公里 (70% probability radii is 180km)
预测 36-48 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +48)
北 时速 18 公里 (N at 18km/h)
预测 05 月 10 日 08 时 (valid at 00UTC 10 May)
中心在 北纬 14.0 度 东经 129.9 度 (centered at 14.0N 129.9E)
70%机率半径 230 公里 (70% probability radii is 230km)
预测 48-72 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +72)
北 时速 19 公里 (N at 19km/h)
预测 05 月 11 日 08 时 (valid at 00UTC 11 May)
中心在 北纬 18.2 度 东经 129.8 度 (centered at 18.2N 129.8E)
70%机率半径 360 公里 (70% probability radii is 360km)
预测 72-96 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +96)
北北东 时速 10 公里 (NNE at 10km/h)
预测 05 月 12 日 08 时 (valid at 00UTC 12 May)
中心在 北纬 20.3 度 东经 130.4 度 (centered at 20.3N 130.4E)
70%机率半径 520 公里 (70% probability radii is 520km)
预测 96-120 小时平均移向移速为 (the direction and speed of the movement of the storm to +120)
东北 时速 15 公里 (NE at 15km/h)
预测 05 月 13 日 08 时 (valid at 00UTC 13 May)
中心在 北纬 23.0 度 东经 132.5 度 (centered at 23.0N 132.5E)
70%机率半径 620 公里 (70% probability radii is 620km)

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 09.1N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 11.8N 131.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101200UTC 15.6N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 111200UTC 19.0N 131.9E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess it is a silly question to ask why the RP and Pagasa don't follow the WMO naming convention.

I guess it is also silly to ask why the WMO doesn't alphabetize storm names. Yes, I know more than 24 storms can occur in a season and they just keep rolling, but it would still help for those not closely following the West Pac to know how active a season is by seeing how the storms are progressing through the alphabet.

[Chacor]

I guess it is a silly question to ask why the RP and Pagasa don't follow the WMO naming convention.

I guess it is also silly to ask why the WMO doesn't alphabetize storm names. Yes, I know more than 24 storms can occur in a season and they just keep rolling, but it would still help for those not closely following the West Pac to know how active a season is by seeing how the storms are progressing through the alphabet.

Why should they? This isn't the Atlantic or Pacific. Each area has its own naming system and this is perfectly fine. As to your first point, we've mentioned it before (you asked when Neoguri formed, I believe). PAGASA has its own namelist to use so that it can adequately warn its public on systems that may not yet have been named by the JMA.

[senorpepr]

I guess it is a silly question to ask why the RP and Pagasa don't follow the WMO naming convention.

I guess it is also silly to ask why the WMO doesn't alphabetize storm names. Yes, I know more than 24 storms can occur in a season and they just keep rolling, but it would still help for those not closely following the West Pac to know how active a season is by seeing how the storms are progressing through the alphabet.

Why should they? This isn't the Atlantic or Pacific. Each area has its own naming system and this is perfectly fine. As to your first point, we've mentioned it before (you asked when Neoguri formed, I believe). PAGASA has its own namelist to use so that it can adequately warn its public on systems that may not yet have been named by the JMA.

To piggy-back on that, using a Filipino point-of-view:

First, the WMO convention doesn't name tropical depressions, but these systems can still be significant to the Philippines. It's more effective to give them a name for better identification through the media versus regarding it as a depression.

Furthermore, using a foreign name also loses it's touch for better identification. If media personnel have trouble saying it, people are less likely to pay attention to it.

Another key aspect is tropical cyclone warnings are using passed mouth-to-mouth, especially in the provinces. A large majority of folks outside the cities don't have a TV or radio. Many of those folks don't even have electricity or only use their electricity to power a small florescent light bulb at night. In my experiences, much of the warning is passed along using text messages from friends and family. Using a local Filipino name over a foreign name makes that message pass quicker.

With that all said, I suppose one could say the same thing about the USA. Why doesn't the US follow the WMO naming convention for subtropical cyclones? Why doesn't the US the WMO convention for wind speed. (US wind speeds are measured approx 10% faster than the rest of the world.)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess it is a silly question to ask why the RP and Pagasa don't follow the WMO naming convention.

I guess it is also silly to ask why the WMO doesn't alphabetize storm names. Yes, I know more than 24 storms can occur in a season and they just keep rolling, but it would still help for those not closely following the West Pac to know how active a season is by seeing how the storms are progressing through the alphabet.

Why should they? This isn't the Atlantic or Pacific. Each area has its own naming system and this is perfectly fine. As to your first point, we've mentioned it before (you asked when Neoguri formed, I believe). PAGASA has its own namelist to use so that it can adequately warn its public on systems that may not yet have been named by the JMA.

Well, ignoring that small error, it is their part of the world, and the nations bordering the NW Pacific Basin can name storms in any manner they like, I suppose, it just doesn't seem the most reasonable way to do it. And any system that gives us juvenile Americans a name like 'Longwang' to snicker at can't be all bad.


I guess if the RP/Pagasa doesn't think the WMO RMSC, the JMA, provides adequate coverage, they have every right to their own system of naming and warnings.

I think we've seen in other oceans that aren't the Atlantic or Pacific that the WMO RMSC either has competency problems, or lets political biases against unfriendly nations effect its performance.

[senorpepr]

I guess if the RP/Pagasa doesn't think the WMO RMSC, the JMA, provides adequate coverage, they have every right to their own system of naming and warnings.

Well, for what's it's worth, JMA bulletins aren't exactly public-friendly. That's why the PAGASA comes in. JMA uses measurements like knots and latitude/longitude in their bulletins. A majority of Filipinos don't understand that. They know km/h. They want the storm position in reference to a city.

The Philippines aren't the only country to issue their own advisories in that region of the world. Practically each nation produces their own bulletins for tropical cyclones, especially when they pose a threat to that nation. Even the US NWSFO in Guam issues advisories for Guam and the Northern Marianas--and the only information they get from JMA is the name of the storm.

As for the Philippines, I mentioned earlier, their different names helps better identify storms for their citizens. The ethic name is better to relate to, and by naming tropical depressions, the media can better identify systems to the public. Besides... what harm is it causing? You can't really say it's a confusion problem. Nearly all Filipinos (I'd guess over 99%) have no clue that the JMA is issuing advisories on Butchoy. The folks that do see both names (Butchoy vs Rammasun) are usually weather enthusiasts. I really don't see what all the fuss is about.

[P.K.]

Well the RSMC Tokyo advisories quote m/s as their main units on the public page (Which is the same as used by the JMA in general) so it is understood in Japan. PAGASA also issue advisories under the header RPMM quoting the wind speed in m/s. CMA advisories use m/s as do the KMA public advisories.

I don't think that comment on the other RSMCs/TCWCs is particularly fair however.

Up to T3.5 at 1800.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better by the hour.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 09.6N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 13.2N 131.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 101800UTC 17.0N 132.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 111800UTC 21.7N 134.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =