WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme)

[HURAKAN]

16/2030 UTC 15.3N 118.5E T3.5/3.5 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

Upgraded to STS.

WTPQ21 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0804 HALONG (0804) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 15.3N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 18.7N 122.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 22.7N 126.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 31.0N 134.6E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Yep, I was going to post the same thing. Wrapping up fast.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HALONG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.8N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.8N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.8N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.5N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 119.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z,
171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.

[HURAKAN]

I see you!!!

[Cyclenall]

It's very probable it's a typhoon now. The eye looks strange, there is like a spiral band lodged into it.

[HURAKAN]

17/0230 UTC 15.7N 118.9E T4.0/4.0 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

A typhoon according to Dvorak.

[Chacor]

Up to 55 kts.

009
WTPQ21 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 15.7N 119.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 18.9N 122.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 22.7N 126.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 200000UTC 31.0N 134.6E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Ed Mahmoud]

17/0230 UTC 15.7N 118.9E T4.0/4.0 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

A typhoon according to Dvorak.

Is that from CIMMS?

[RL3AO]

That sat image literally looks like an eye.

[Chacor]

[Category 5]

That sat image literally looks like an eye.

Oh it is. Looks like some rapid strengthening.

[RL3AO]

Yep. Its undergoing RI. How long until landfall?

[wyq614]

CMA:
WTPQ20 BABJ 170600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS HALONG 0804 (0804) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC
00HR 16.0N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 50KM
P12HR NE 15KM/H
P+24HR 19.5N 122.9E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 24.4N 129.1E 975HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 34.3N 137.8E 985HPA 25M/S

[Chacor]

CMA's probably too low. 50 kts?

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 15.9N 119.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 19.5N 123.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 23.8N 128.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200600UTC 33.6N 137.4E 400NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Cyclenall]

The eye is coming back just in time for the landfall.

[KWT]

This system is looking good right now just as itys coming close to land, I had a bad feeling it would strengthen well before land given the way it looked yesterday and that strong convection that developed close to the center.

[HURAKAN]