Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC

[Derek Ortt]

NRL has noname

[cycloneye]

Depression at 2 PM PDT.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1854 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (EP032008) 20080627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080627 1800 080628 0600 080628 1800 080629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 122.5W 14.0N 124.3W 14.9N 126.2W 15.9N 128.1W
BAMD 13.3N 122.5W 13.8N 124.3W 14.4N 126.1W 15.0N 128.2W
BAMM 13.3N 122.5W 13.9N 124.2W 14.4N 126.1W 15.0N 128.0W
LBAR 13.3N 122.5W 14.1N 123.9W 15.3N 125.3W 16.5N 126.8W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080629 1800 080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 130.2W 18.7N 135.3W 20.5N 140.1W 22.7N 143.2W
BAMD 15.8N 130.4W 17.3N 134.8W 18.7N 139.0W 19.7N 142.7W
BAMM 15.8N 130.2W 17.1N 134.7W 18.4N 139.2W 19.7N 142.9W
LBAR 17.5N 128.6W 20.5N 132.8W 26.0N 135.0W 32.3N 129.5W
SHIP 41KTS 32KTS 25KTS 18KTS
DSHP 41KTS 32KTS 25KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 122.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 120.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 119.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[RL3AO]

The EPac is coming alive.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Tropical Depression 3-E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 70%
Hurricane: 4%
Category 2 Hurricane: 2%
"" 3 "": 1%
"" 4 "": 0.1%
"" 5 "": 0.001%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272037
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THIRD EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1075 MILES...1730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...13.5 N...123.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272037
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
2100 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 123.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 123.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272056
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT SURFACE CIRCULATION DEFINITION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN
STRUGGLING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...WHICH
PROBABLY WAS DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS.
CONSEQUENTLY...ON SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
4.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CREATED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES AND GRADUALLY FILLS. AFTERWARD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.5N 123.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[KWT]

Looks like the western side is still struggling to gain any convection though there does appear to be some convection over the center at the moment. I'd guess at the moment its 50-50 whether it becomes a named system, all depends whether it can get a little better wrapped then it is presently I think, conditions aren't too bad around it, at least for the next 24-36hrs.

[CrazyC83]

27/1800 UTC 13.6N 122.1W T2.5/2.5 95E -- East Pacific Ocean

Still hasn't been changed to 03E yet, but already supporting tropical storm. Cristina at 8 pm?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No question it is a tropical storm! Nice banding futures and convection.

[HURAKAN]

Cristina Aguilera just called the NHC to give her support to TD 3E for the upgrade.

[HURAKAN]

TD 3E is down from the NRL. Cristina could be up soon.

[KWT]

Yep thats looking like a tropical storm now, probably 40kts I'd guess at the moment, looks pretty decent though shear is waiting in the wings further to the west, should still have 24-36hrs of steady strengthening.

[CrazyC83]

Cristina Aguilera just called the NHC to give her support to TD 3E for the upgrade.

(I'm sure the name will be misspelled a lot, but she wasn't even born when the lists were made up...)

[CrazyC83]

TD 3E is down from the NRL. Cristina could be up soon.

Special advisory perhaps?

[KWT]

I wouldn't see the point to be honest crazy if its likely to get upgraded shortly and there is no landmass in the way may as well just wait till next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a TS.

[RL3AO]

Guidance should be out in about 80 minutes or so. We will know then. Unless it pops up on NRL before that.

[HURAKAN]

TD 3E is down from the NRL. Cristina could be up soon.

Special advisory perhaps?

Not sure but it's still down.

[senorpepr]

TD 3E is down from the NRL. Cristina could be up soon.

Special advisory perhaps?

Not sure but it's still down.

It's back up. Still noname.

Nothing to see here--carry on.