Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ekal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:13 am
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#41 Postby ekal » Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:50 pm

Always look at the date on the bottom of the image, not the date at the top, which changes as the run progresses.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#42 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:52 pm

Ah yes your right I see sorry I made a little mistake, I had it at 24hrs out which said the forecast date which is todays date, for some reason got the two messed up lol!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:55 pm

18z GFS starts running at 5:30 PM EDT.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#44 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 01, 2008 4:37 pm

Right ok thanks cycloneye. Right lets try this again!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:51 pm

18z GFS Loop

Here is the complete 18z GFS loop.Is an interesting run that shows the system tracking west,then moving NW being very close to Bermuda.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#46 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:54 pm

In many way this run is similar to the ECM both in terms of track and also the way it develops it into quite a strong system post 144hrs, indeed I suspect this is one of the strongest runs for this wave on the GFS for a while.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:42 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 020040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080702 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000 080703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.5W 12.1N 24.5W 11.6N 27.6W
BAMD 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.4W 12.6N 23.8W 13.0N 26.3W
BAMM 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.5W 12.4N 24.1W 12.3N 27.0W
LBAR 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.9W 12.7N 25.1W 13.0N 28.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 30.5W 10.1N 33.2W 14.3N 35.9W 19.9N 40.5W
BAMD 13.3N 28.8W 14.8N 33.5W 17.9N 38.8W 21.4N 43.5W
BAMM 12.0N 29.5W 12.9N 33.1W 17.1N 37.3W 21.7N 41.8W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.0N 39.5W 13.5N 46.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS
DSHP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 19.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 16.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 14.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#48 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:45 pm

Good ole' SHIPS. Cat 2 cane on July 5th or so near 30W.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:46 pm

SHIPS continues to forecast very light shear thru 120 hours:

Code: Select all

              *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  07/02/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    38    51    61    72    80    85    85    86    86
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    38    51    61    72    80    85    85    86    86
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    29    33    40    48    57    65    70    73    74

SHEAR (KTS)       12     7     3     4     3     2     3     4     6     1     6     3     5
SHEAR DIR         83    84    99   110   173   228   181    78    57    37    41   353   290
SST (C)         28.0  27.4  26.8  26.3  26.0  26.1  26.3  26.3  25.8  25.3  25.1  25.3  25.8
POT. INT. (KT)   138   130   123   118   115   116   117   116   112   109   108   110   114
ADJ. POT. INT.   138   129   121   116   114   114   115   112   108   106   105   104   107
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       3     3     3     4     4     4     5     5     6     5     5     5     6
700-500 MB RH     83    82    78    78    77    72    67    63    63    64    62    59    57
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    15    15    16    16    20    20    21    21    21    19    19    20
850 MB ENV VOR    76    82    86    98   100   117   130   148   150   121   107    66    31
200 MB DIV        78    79    92   120    91   102    79    74    93    53    65    44    75
LAND (KM)        240   374   508   633   761  1063  1333  1555  1696  1880  2103  2130  2188
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.2  12.3  12.4  12.4  12.3  12.0  12.0  12.9  14.7  17.1  19.4  21.7
LONG(DEG W)     19.0  20.3  21.5  22.8  24.1  27.0  29.5  31.6  33.1  35.0  37.3  39.6  41.8
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    12    13    14    13    11     9    11    15    16    15    15
HEAT CONTENT      19     9     4     2     0     1     2     3     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  595  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   7.  12.  16.  20.  22.  23.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   8.  11.  13.  14.  16.  16.  17.  17.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -14. -15.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   3.   3.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   9.   9.   9.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.  10.  11.  11.  11.  10.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   9.  13.  26.  36.  47.  55.  60.  60.  61.  61.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   9.  13.  26.  36.  47.  55.  60.  60.  61.  61.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 07/02/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  92.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  98.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   6.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 92L Models Thread=00:00 UTC SHIP forecast=Little shear

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:49 pm

LBAR is the loner.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#51 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:13 pm

And doesnt the Ships model usually overestimate shear?
0 likes   

User avatar
ekal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:13 am
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#52 Postby ekal » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:16 pm

Regardless of shear, it's hard to believe that an SST of 25.1 degC is going to sustain an 85-knot hurricane in 96 hours. That's only about 77 degF.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#53 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:17 pm

Not to throw the "a" word out there, but low shear + pretty constant SSTs... :wink:
0 likes   

Tertius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:12 pm
Location: Delray Beach, FL

Re: 92L Models Thread=00:00 UTC SHIP forecast=Little shear

#54 Postby Tertius » Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:LBAR is the loner.


It usually is. As far as predicted future path is concerned, LBAR should always be thrown out IMHO. I'm not sure why it is always shown on these maps.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:38 pm

00z GFS at 12 Hours

The 00z run of GFS is starting.Lets see what it has trackwise and on intensity.

00z GFS at 24 hours

00z GFS at 36 hours

00z GFS at 48 hours

00z GFS at 66 hours Already a Tropical Storm and starting to move more NW.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Houston, TX

#56 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:06 pm

The 00z GFS really wants to try and develop this system quickly!

Here is the loop that will continually update as new images come in: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#57 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:45 pm

This 00z GFS run tracks it well NE of Bermuda.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:00 am

Here is the enchilada of models :)

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8344
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#59 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:13 am

Well let me tell ya a little something about GFS 288 hours out... Ya know, I probably don't even have to tell you.

cycloneye wrote:This 00z GFS run tracks it well NE of Bermuda.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5566
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread

#60 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:00 am

Personally, I think the GFS is out to lunch on this run. It brings the system to storm status, which is believable, and begins to turn it north, which is believable, but once in the center of the atlantic, it stalls the system for several days before slowly shunting it out and rebuilding the high.
Btw, did the spaghetti models shift west or am I crazy?
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests