Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
Always look at the date on the bottom of the image, not the date at the top, which changes as the run progresses.
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Right ok thanks cycloneye. Right lets try this again!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
18z GFS Loop
Here is the complete 18z GFS loop.Is an interesting run that shows the system tracking west,then moving NW being very close to Bermuda.
Here is the complete 18z GFS loop.Is an interesting run that shows the system tracking west,then moving NW being very close to Bermuda.
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
WHXX01 KWBC 020040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED JUL 2 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080702 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000 080703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.5W 12.1N 24.5W 11.6N 27.6W
BAMD 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.4W 12.6N 23.8W 13.0N 26.3W
BAMM 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.5W 12.4N 24.1W 12.3N 27.0W
LBAR 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.9W 12.7N 25.1W 13.0N 28.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 30.5W 10.1N 33.2W 14.3N 35.9W 19.9N 40.5W
BAMD 13.3N 28.8W 14.8N 33.5W 17.9N 38.8W 21.4N 43.5W
BAMM 12.0N 29.5W 12.9N 33.1W 17.1N 37.3W 21.7N 41.8W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.0N 39.5W 13.5N 46.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS
DSHP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 19.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 16.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 14.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
![Image](http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif)
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED JUL 2 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080702 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000 080703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.5W 12.1N 24.5W 11.6N 27.6W
BAMD 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.4W 12.6N 23.8W 13.0N 26.3W
BAMM 12.0N 19.0W 12.3N 21.5W 12.4N 24.1W 12.3N 27.0W
LBAR 12.0N 19.0W 12.2N 21.9W 12.7N 25.1W 13.0N 28.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 30.5W 10.1N 33.2W 14.3N 35.9W 19.9N 40.5W
BAMD 13.3N 28.8W 14.8N 33.5W 17.9N 38.8W 21.4N 43.5W
BAMM 12.0N 29.5W 12.9N 33.1W 17.1N 37.3W 21.7N 41.8W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.0N 39.5W 13.5N 46.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS
DSHP 61KTS 80KTS 85KTS 86KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 19.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 16.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 14.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
![Image](http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif)
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
SHIPS continues to forecast very light shear thru 120 hours:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL922008 07/02/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 51 61 72 80 85 85 86 86
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 51 61 72 80 85 85 86 86
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 48 57 65 70 73 74
SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 3 4 3 2 3 4 6 1 6 3 5
SHEAR DIR 83 84 99 110 173 228 181 78 57 37 41 353 290
SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 123 118 115 116 117 116 112 109 108 110 114
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 129 121 116 114 114 115 112 108 106 105 104 107
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 78 77 72 67 63 63 64 62 59 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 20 20 21 21 21 19 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR 76 82 86 98 100 117 130 148 150 121 107 66 31
200 MB DIV 78 79 92 120 91 102 79 74 93 53 65 44 75
LAND (KM) 240 374 508 633 761 1063 1333 1555 1696 1880 2103 2130 2188
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.9 14.7 17.1 19.4 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 27.0 29.5 31.6 33.1 35.0 37.3 39.6 41.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 13 11 9 11 15 16 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 9 4 2 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 26. 36. 47. 55. 60. 60. 61. 61.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 26. 36. 47. 55. 60. 60. 61. 61.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/02/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=
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- brunota2003
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
Regardless of shear, it's hard to believe that an SST of 25.1 degC is going to sustain an 85-knot hurricane in 96 hours. That's only about 77 degF.
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Re: 92L Models Thread=00:00 UTC SHIP forecast=Little shear
cycloneye wrote:LBAR is the loner.
It usually is. As far as predicted future path is concerned, LBAR should always be thrown out IMHO. I'm not sure why it is always shown on these maps.
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
00z GFS at 12 Hours
The 00z run of GFS is starting.Lets see what it has trackwise and on intensity.
00z GFS at 24 hours
00z GFS at 36 hours
00z GFS at 48 hours
00z GFS at 66 hours Already a Tropical Storm and starting to move more NW.
The 00z run of GFS is starting.Lets see what it has trackwise and on intensity.
00z GFS at 24 hours
00z GFS at 36 hours
00z GFS at 48 hours
00z GFS at 66 hours Already a Tropical Storm and starting to move more NW.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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The 00z GFS really wants to try and develop this system quickly!
Here is the loop that will continually update as new images come in: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Here is the loop that will continually update as new images come in: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
This 00z GFS run tracks it well NE of Bermuda.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
Well let me tell ya a little something about GFS 288 hours out... Ya know, I probably don't even have to tell you.
cycloneye wrote:This 00z GFS run tracks it well NE of Bermuda.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
Personally, I think the GFS is out to lunch on this run. It brings the system to storm status, which is believable, and begins to turn it north, which is believable, but once in the center of the atlantic, it stalls the system for several days before slowly shunting it out and rebuilding the high.
Btw, did the spaghetti models shift west or am I crazy?
Btw, did the spaghetti models shift west or am I crazy?
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