EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

[RL3AO]

I guess all the NHC needed was the quikscat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a special advisory could come out. Also you could see that there was a LLC without quickscat.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a special advisory could come out. Also you could see that there was a LLC without quickscat.

Its possible.

EP, 06, 2008071200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 952W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

The 0z best track has been adjusted already. That normally coresponds to the 3z advisory...which has passed.

[Kerry04]

the navy now have this 06E.NONAME

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Chacor]

WTPZ21 KNHC 120444
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0500 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 96.3W AT 12/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 96.3W AT 12/0500Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.1N 97.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 100.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

60 kts forecast.

[Chacor]

798
WTPZ31 KNHC 120447
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

AT 1000 PM PDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...640 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM PDT POSITION...12.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

60kt in 72 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday I said that the TCFA was issued too early and it was true. Looking at the system today, the appears to be a well-defined LLC and curve bands of rainfall continue to develop, especially over the northern-side. Development is possible in the next 24 hours IF it can mantain a healthy area of thunderstorms co-located with the LLC.

Not bad.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system has a lot of work to catch the Eastern pacific up with the Atlatnic. This would have to be around a long time to do that.

[Chacor]

[RL3AO]

If it takes the right side of the cone it could get a little hairy for the coast, other wise its another EPac system that will die a slow (or quick) death in cool waters and/or high shear.

[Chacor]

The discussion is very late.

[RL3AO]

The discussion is very late.

Its hard to make an entire advisory package in 90 minutes. The PA and FA are basically templates.

[Chacor]

415
WTPZ41 KNHC 120520
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A 0015Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS WITHING THE DEVELOPING SPIRAL
BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND THE SHIPS SHOW THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING AS THE
CYCLONE TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 3 OF DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD...THEN HOLDING AT 60 KT THROUGH DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER
FLOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER WEST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWEST. THIS SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
GFS BAMM MID-LAYER MEAN TRAJECTORY MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0500Z 12.3N 96.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.1N 97.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 100.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[Chacor]

35 kts in ATCF so we should have Elida.

[Chacor]

776
WTPZ21 KNHC 120830
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0900 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 96.7W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 96.7W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 13.3N 98.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 96.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 120832
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 370 MILES...
600 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...12.5 N...96.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Chacor]

859
WTPZ41 KNHC 120838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT
35 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING. BOTH
DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN
48 HOURS. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS
REFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE
GFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 12.5N 96.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.3N 98.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[KWT]

Now forecasted to beocme a hurricane. That was quick, when I left here tto go asleep we had an invest now its TS Elida. Then again it did start to look good back then so thinking back its probably not all that surprising that this has happened and developed into a TS.