ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Very interesting, wonder if both regions have a shot at forming then wxman57. There is a thread for that little area you mention, its pretty small right now though on the grand scale of things but its been interesting to watch:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102681

If anything forms there then it'll odds on be a fish.

[bvigal]

WHXX04 KWBC 221123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 39.0 290./15.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[meteorologyman]

Boy it will be fun if both 94L and 95L threaten land somewhere in the lower 48 at the same time, since one may take northern path over the other (sarcasticaly speaking).

I wonder if 2 storms ever it the lower 48 at the same time.

[KWT]

I think 95L is gone from site now the NRL?

[cycloneye]

554
ABNT20 KNHC 221152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[bob rulz]

Boy it will be fun if both 94L and 95L threaten land somewhere in the lower 48 at the same time, since one may take northern path over the other (sarcasticaly speaking).

I wonder if 2 storms ever it the lower 48 at the same time.

Well I don't think any have ever hit at the EXACT same time, but I remember there's been some that were very close. Charley hit southwest Florida just 24 hours after Bonnie hit the Florida panhandle in 2004. EDIT: Nvm, my bad.

[cycloneye]

We were looking at the wrong area,its up in latitud.Code Orange.Maybe 96L will be tagged for the southern area.

[KWT]

95L floater up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

Its interesting because the models and best track was tracking the southern system but now it seems like they've almost changed thier minds!

[RL3AO]

We were looking at the wrong area,its up in latitud.Code Orange.Maybe 96L will be tagged for the southern area.

No we weren't. The ATCF file was tracking the system at 11N. I guess the NHC saw wxman57s post and changed the area to watch.

[KWT]

Ah well at least at this latitude its highly likely to be a fish given the way the upper high is meant to break down somewhat.

Looks pretty decent and concentrated at the moment and has been producing convection quite a lot recently, still tiny compared to the other two regions further south but as I said these can slip under the radar sometimes.

[RL3AO]

I wonder if 2 storms ever it the lower 48 at the same time.

Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley made landfall in Florida 22 hours apart.

[cycloneye]

22/1145 UTC 17.3N 39.4W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

Yep Dvorak also relocating further north though I think any circulation has to be near 18N , I just wonder what the T numbers would be for the big convective blob further south would be?

[Clipper96]

Floater up: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

....given this latitude, highly likely to be fish....

95 is currently northeast of 2003 Isabel's start point, but will cross that hurricane's initially NW track on a W heading at about 18N/35W: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Given two Invests, one a small northern system with circ over cool water under low shear and the other a huge near-ITCZ complex over bath water, I'll pick the small one every time for development chances.

[tanguy97]

why the navy dont mention 95L ?

[KWT]

Sure Isabel did manage to mak landfall but then again there wasn't models prediciting a weakness opening up and the Bermuda high to withdraw back eastwards again with that system you mention Clipper, where as at 18N even a moderate weakness would induce some decent latitude gains.

[RL3AO]

why the navy dont mention 95L ?

I guess the site isn't updating. The NRL isn't official anyway.


And welcome to s2k.

[Weathermaster]

I think there is a confusion in the NHC, 95L should be the one south. This is the one who looks better organized and is the one mentioned by the NWS in PR that could affect us next Tuesday thru Wednesday. The blob already at 18 latitude is moving northwest and impossible to affect PR by that time. Just wait and see how they will change again during the day..

[Clipper96]

RAMSDIS has both 94 and 95 in the same floater: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Judging from current motion and speed, 95 will still be at or under 20N by 55W, implying an east coast threat next week. (I know there could be ridge weaknesses down the road; I don't think I'm off base in hinting this is a bad year for long-range model-verification, however.)

The Storm2K image needs 95's position fixed.

[KWT]

Indeed clipper it seems to be moving pretty close to west, maybe a tiny bit north of west its hard to say. However I think if this does develo pthen it'll tap into the deeper steering currents which by the time this gets to 65-70W will be very condusive for recurve, notivce the ECM even takes a moderate system deep in the Caribbean and picks it up, thats how strong the weakness is progged to be by 120hrs...