ATL JOSEPHINE: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

can a mod change the title of this thread to "Ex-Josephine"?

NAM at 84 hours, its starting to wrap up

[gatorcane]

CMC shows a low near Southern FL and the FL Keys at 84 hours heading West:

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS Starting to show a little bump in the road near the bahamas headed twards FL..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

GFS sends this area into the SE Bahamas under deep ridging at 500MB

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:

GFS sends this area into the SE Bahamas under deep ridging at 500MB

deep ridging over florida, no way..

[Vortex]

12Z GFS now has low in bahamas at H+66


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[gatorcane]

convection is starting to ramp up right near or over Josephine's remnant center. 850MB vorticity analysis shows vorticity here still..

GFS, NAM, and CMC could be on to something:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Lifesgud2]

Gator,

Funny thing is Trent Eric, as well as the guy from NBC said it will be atleast 10 days before anything would form in the atlantic. This does seem interesting..

[Blown Away]

GEM run similiar to Ike.
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM

[gatorcane]

GEM run similiar to Ike.
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM

It shows another 984MB storm impacting Southern Texas -- and it brushes southern FL then makes a NW turn in response to the shortwave that is pulling Ike up...then ex-Josephine bends back to the west in the Eastern GOM as a mid-lattitude high builds in across the northern GOM and Eastern seaboard...

Amazing if this verifies. One thing is for sure...we have some model support for this area albeit still nominal at this point.

[boca]

On my lunch break and playing weather catch up.It seems like this could be another area Florida would have to keep an eye on.All storms seem to take a dive WSW into Eastern Cuba and I wonder if the same synoptic setup is their for this potential ex Josephine to do the same.

[gatorcane]

quite possibly Boca -- it seems a general WNW to W motion is likely...

[Vortex]

Josey surely looking suspect this afternoon..

[otowntiger]

:uarrow:

GFS sends this area into the SE Bahamas under deep ridging at 500MB

deep ridging over florida, no way..

What is deep ridging? That sounds like an oxymoron. I'm not picking on you, I've seen it before. Wouldn't that be the same as "tall valleys" or "high troughs"?

[gatorcane]

MM5 FSU shows ex-Josephine developing and approaching the SE Bahamas:

[blp]

Interesting that they ran GFDL and HWRF 00Z on it and the HWRF was developing it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... page.shtml

GFDL kept it weak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... page.shtml

[HurricaneFreak]

Seems like the storms are rejecting Florida like Hanna that turned Northeast to SC/NC, Gustav that went south of Cuba and not north of Cuba towards Fl, then Ike that went south to cuba and not directly into fl and now Josey which may do the same thing but that model loop u posted gator was interesting cause it showed it hitting quite close to south florida like around upper keys and homestead.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM, a weak system just off the coast of SE Florida:

[Vortex]

notice how favorable the upper air pattern becomes over the bahamas at the 500mb. Regardless something will be in the bahamas later this weekend with only one way to go and thats west.

[HurricaneFreak]

Gator can u give me a link to that model loop cause im curious were this "remnant" of josey is gona go