ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

This is a little premature, since neither of these systems has been named yet, but how unusual is it to see two named storms within the confines of the Carribbean Sea at the same time?

[HURAKAN]

Next name: Paloma, if TD 15 becomes Omar first.

[boca]

Other than Fay we have the Tampa Bay protective bubble over Florida right now and hopefully 99L will go into Central America with that building high over the east coast.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible

A sight to remember. Two well-organized systems in the Caribbean at the same time.

[AJC3]

As far as Florida is concerned, the forecast mid level pattern does not favor anything in the western Caribbean getting sent toward Florida. Even as the the strong deep layer ridge weakens and flattens out in about 4 days...the trough is amplifying so far eastward (along the eastern U.S. coast/western ATLC) that the mid level steering flow become west and then NW...not SW.

Things could change, but I doubt it, since the globals have been consistent with the evolution of this pattern. Hence, one of two things would need to happen for there to be any Florida threat.

1) The mid-late week trough would need to amplify much farther west...on the order of 5-10 degrees, or...

2) Whatever forms in the Caribbean would need to move with a pretty good northward component of motion so that it gets to a position somewhere in the vicinity of 24-27N/85W (i.e. due west of the Keys or SW FL).

(and all the speculation above assumes that the system will not weaken/dissipate over central America or the Yucatan area of Mexico).

[Sanibel]

Could be heading inland.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

AN YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT A 1100 MILES
WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NO
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF NANA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

[Weatherboy1]

Agreed -- This one looks like it'll get buried in Central America over the next couple of days. Always an outside chance it gets far enough north to become an east coast/Atlantic runner, but so far, that seems less likely to me.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking it is just going to loop around east of Belize.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...HAS FORMED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N82W OR ABOUT 90 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. THIS LOW IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OR MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVERS FROM FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE
EVIDENT TO THE N AND SE ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

[HURAKAN]

13/1745 UTC 14.2N 82.0W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[ROCK]

Well, this is one that Florida certainly has to watch.
I like when wxman57 has an initial forecast that does not include Florida.
Usually makes me take a deep breath and relax.

But, given climatology, it is one to be very mindful of.
I like that it is so far south right now and can easily scoot west and be gone from concern for us.

Tis the season to watch carefully, at least for another 2-3 weeks...

Whow knows.... maybe since Ed has proclaimed season over for Texas, it might go there...

The Pleasure Pier and recently spontaneously repositioned no longer 22 miles East of GLS data buoys both show SSTs now below the magic 26.5º. Even if 99L defied all climatology ( October 16, 1989 saw a landfalling Cat 1, so 10/16 is my unofficial no worries day, plus it is my Knights of Columbus social meeting night), it would be passing cool water on its way to my patch of the mid-latitudes.

still some juice out there for something significant.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC BEST TRACK:

AL, 99, 2008101318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 820W, 25, 1006, DB

[MiamiensisWx]

Except for Fay which caused alot of flooding damage in my area, Florida has been pretty lucky this year. IMO, this will be another system that will go against climatology and avoid SFL.

If it moves WNW into Mexico or Central America, it's not "going against climatology." Florida/eastern GOM is one of three primary avenues for October Caribbean TCs.

See official data:

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png

Note that Florida is only one of three principal avenues, based on past historical track data. Do you utilize "fake climatology" or real climatology?

Can we interject some sane research in our posts? I'm not insulting your credentials, but it is a stretch when someone states that Florida is "favored" more than other regions in October. There is an equal distribution among the three avenues, according to real climatology.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL992008  10/13/08  18 UTC   *

SHEAR (KTS)        7    12    11    12     9     7     4     4     8     2     4    12     7
SST (C)         29.6  29.6  29.7  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.3  28.9  28.5  28.4  28.3  28.5             


Very scary stuff. Classic October set-up for the WCAR.

[HURAKAN]

Just came to my mind.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro bucking the trend of a Belieze/Yucatan LF - headed for GOM off the NE tip of the Yuc on this run.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008101312!!!step/

[Blown Away]

Except for Fay which caused alot of flooding damage in my area, Florida has been pretty lucky this year. IMO, this will be another system that will go against climatology and avoid SFL.

If it moves WNW into Mexico or Central America, it's not "going against climatology." Florida/eastern GOM is one of three primary avenues for October Caribbean TCs.
See official data:
http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png
Note that Florida is only one of three principal avenues, based on past historical track data. Do you utilize "fake climatology" or real climatology?
Can we interject some sane research in our posts? I'm not insulting your credentials, but it is a stretch when someone states that Florida is "favored" more than other regions in October. There is an equal distribution among the three avenues, according to real climatology.

On this date and time climatology does not agree w/ a sharp left turn into CA. The comment was not meant to be scientific fact, I should have been more specific, Ike did not follow climatology and spared SFL and it seems 99L is not following climatology on this date and time.

[Sanibel]

Hang on we could still be offshore. Mid swirl near 14.3N-81.8W

Could be a gear change here towards formation. Tonight's burst will tell.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021745.GIF

According to the loop, this is not going inland anytime soon. DMAX should do its job tonight and we should have RECON tomorrow.