ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[jinftl]

Maybe it is really a shield against getting winds over 80 mph?

MGC were protected by the Tampa Bay shield which has been protecting us this 2008 season. Go to the Keys and you'll probably have sunshine.

So far in 2008 Only...the tampa bay shield has been protecting us.
But the shield is very weak- it gets broken often by Hurricane
Conditions:
2004- Hurricane Jeanne, 78 mph in Tampa Bay
2005- Hurricane Wilma, 76 mph Florida Highway Patrol Skyway
2006- Severe Frontal Low/Derecho on November 15th, 2006, severe weather
reports for the nation show a blue square indicative of 65 kt = 75 mph + winds
offshore Tampa Bay
2007- Hurricane Olga's remnant circulation after it decreased to a depression
intensified rapidly with the aid of a cold front, and in December hit the
Tampa Bay area bringing 78 mph recorded winds to Clearwater Beach.

Therefore, 4 years in a row hurricane conditions have been experienced in the Tampa Bay Area.

Hopefully 91L will NOT break the shield.

[fci]

Threads I've started for possible snow in Kansas and near Boston this week go unread. Seems almost unfair, but a 40 mph, badly sheared, tropical/sub-tropical storm headed for Florida (not an official forecast, since I'm neither official or professional) would generate dozens of pages of comments.

I hope it snows in Florida this winter, at least as far South in the interior as Orlando. Imagine the thread that'll be, if well forecasted.

I'd speculate that 91L is on its way to becoming a TD. IMO, 91L looks more organized than TD 16 was. 91L has convection near its circulation center while TD 16 didn't. Hopefully this will go west, as I'm headed to the Florida Keys later this week and I don't want my parade rained on....MGC

Unofficially, and from an amateur, passage over the Yucatan will weaken strengthening when conditions are generally favorable, then incredible shear over the Gulf will limit it greatly.

May rain on your parade, but I don't, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, see how this could be more than a TS for Florida if the GFS is anywhere near close to correct.

My heart goes out to you Ed for the ignoring of your scintillating threads on possible Kansas and Boston snow.
A threat in the tropics for Florida, even for a weak TS will trump those historic threads just about every time!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Maybe it is really a shield against getting winds over 80 mph?

MGC were protected by the Tampa Bay shield which has been protecting us this 2008 season. Go to the Keys and you'll probably have sunshine.

So far in 2008 Only...the tampa bay shield has been protecting us.
But the shield is very weak- it gets broken often by Hurricane
Conditions:
2004- Hurricane Jeanne, 78 mph in Tampa Bay
2005- Hurricane Wilma, 76 mph Florida Highway Patrol Skyway
2006- Severe Frontal Low/Derecho on November 15th, 2006, severe weather
reports for the nation show a blue square indicative of 65 kt = 75 mph + winds
offshore Tampa Bay
2007- Hurricane Olga's remnant circulation after it decreased to a depression
intensified rapidly with the aid of a cold front, and in December hit the
Tampa Bay area bringing 78 mph recorded winds to Clearwater Beach.

Therefore, 4 years in a row hurricane conditions have been experienced in the Tampa Bay Area.

Hopefully 91L will NOT break the shield.

True. Thank goodness we had nothing above 78 mph. My house is close
to the water...

[jinftl]

True....if a Walmart turns the portable fans on all at once in an aisle in florida, we would probably find model support for that being classified as a depression and grounds for considering evacuations. Nutty for sure....but sure is better than under-reacting ultimately.

My heart goes out to you Ed for the ignoring of your scintillating threads on possible Kansas and Boston snow.
A threat in the tropics for Florida, even for a weak TS will trump those historic threads just about every time!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 192348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A day or two is enough time to get a tropical storm.
But since the heaviest convection is further east of land,
wouldn't the center relocate further offshore under the deep convection,
keeping 91L over water for 3 days before getting pulled into the Gulf
via the Yucatan Channel?

I am a storm-chaser, and I am ready to rock and roll...keep on rollin', baby...
(apologies in advance for any insensitivities towards storm victims; no
insensitivity is intended )

[MGC]

Even if 91L does not develope, there is still a large area of rain/convection that may linger over the Yucatan for several day. There looks to be a pretty strong trough that is coming down into the GOM that should lift this junk out to the NE. Last year down in Key West it rained so hard that Duval Street was ankle deep in water. It is hard to do the Duval crawl when you can nearly swim down Duval. Guess I had better bring my rain gear just in case.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 0z:

AL, 91, 2008102000, , BEST, 0, 175N, 870W, 25, 1009

Tomorrow's DMAX should help this system.

[Sanibel]

That second wave-like feature to the east could add energy.

[BZSTORM]

I'm picking up that the general consenus is that this system will go over the Yucatan rather than Belize. Is it currently only Bam models showing Belize as landfall in 12hrs?
Right now Belize can not take any other major rainfall the South was flooded badly last week with dep 16, where I live on Placencia peninsula the road was impassable for 2 days. Now the west is suffering with major flooding - all dams are spilling over, the Guatemala border has been closed except to Belizeans returning to Belize. Benque on the border is currently cut off and areas of cayo district are cut off and family have had to rescued. As of 6.30pm the bridge which connects the west (Belmopan & Cayo) to the North and East is closed to all vehicular traffic as its under a foot of water. This system is going to drop enough water on us as it is, we certainly don't need it to develop into a depression or storm and making landfall here. It's estimated that at least 50% of the crops which were due to be harvested in next few weeks are trashed.
Like I always say you don't need a hurricane to make a disaster, slow moving depressions and storms can dump allot of rain and create major flooding. Dep 16 apparently killed a total of 4 people in Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico. No ones died here yet but allot have lost their homes & contents to flood waters.

[jinftl]

Fantasy Fest with ankle deep water....just think of it as a prop from mother nature...then again, are you sure the liquid in the streets wasn't rum or vodka??? Been to Key West during Fantasy Fest...such a fun time. That is one place where it can in fact rain on your parade....and you still will have a great time!

The Conchs (locals) are a truly hearty and colorful bunch....they are probably the most frequently evacuated community in the U.S. given how long it takes to get people out of the Keys on the one road that stretches for 100+ miles. Very little room for error with a community of small, flat island chains stretching into the ocean.

Prelim weekend forecast for Key West...gotta love the 6 or 7 degree spread in temperature between day and night....not unusal for the island city.

NWS Forecast for: Key West FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Key West, FL
Last Update: 8:23 pm EDT Oct 19, 2008

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 85.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 84.

Even if 91L does not develope, there is still a large area of rain/convection that may linger over the Yucatan for several day. There looks to be a pretty strong trough that is coming down into the GOM that should lift this junk out to the NE. Last year down in Key West it rained so hard that Duval Street was ankle deep in water. It is hard to do the Duval crawl when you can nearly swim down Duval. Guess I had better bring my rain gear just in case.....MGC

[CaneMaster]

Hello Eveyone! New to the boards here been watching for some time waiting for my account to be activated, however.... back to topic.

I think the trough will eventually pull it north east, however the shear being as strong as it is will quite possibly blow off any high convection building up, although I've seen my share of storms believed to be disrupted by shear... I can be wrong.... lol so far here va beach it's gettin' chilly

Essentially I'd think this system will develop further into a possible ts if it stays south long enough, but that is just my un-professional amateur opinion...

[CaneMaster]

Regarding the supposed Tampa bay shield this year, I wouldn't rely on that thought too much.... They say Va Beach is supposed to be pretty clear of canes and that no eye has passed directly over us but I do know there's Willoughby spit that was formed by a powerful cane way back... 800 acres of sand just doesn't pop up from anything small regardless of an eye track or not wind fields can get quite large.... Regardless of where you are if there is a possibility it will happen eventually......

[MiamiensisWx]

The Tampa Bay "shield" does not exist... the only factor that may reduce the risk to Tampa is (as usual) its location and the inward incline of the coastline...

[JonathanBelles]

I'm kind of hoping for something small to give us some rain and excitement. We can get all the rain we can get going into the dry season.

[CaneMaster]

I'm kind of hoping for something small to give us some rain and excitement. We can get all the rain we can get going into the dry season.

I know all about the dry spouts, we've been pretty dry this year as well, I hoped for more activity but we only ended up with hannah and an un-named storm that was a bit stronger than hannah here

I know the shield doesn't exist i was just saying i wouldn't rely on the thought, but I think 91L will definitely bring something if the models stay on path....

[Blown Away]

I see the broad circulation consolidating near 17.5N/86.5W, a little farther E of the Best Track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[boca]

Looking at the sat pic it looks like the low is at 15n and 85w about 100 miles inland in Honduras.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg