SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Squarethecircle]

120 knots seems to be awful popular. JTWC has that figure as well.

Does seem to be undergoing ERC, although there are no good microwave images out yet.

What are its chances of re-intensification (as in, give me a shear map, SSTs, and whatever else you have)?

[petet]

I hope the cyclone will be intesify to category 5.But the waters are little colder in south so ...

[Squarethecircle]

It would be cool, but don't go around wishing for category fives. You'll feel guilty if one makes landfall.

[petet]

I hope "he" wont make any landfalls.I cant forget about Sidr yet...

[Coredesat]

From earlier.





And now.

[Squarethecircle]

Eye's looking a little better than on that picture. Still visible in BW IR.

[Coredesat]

Very small eye beginning to poke through. The new eye is the tiny green area near the center.

[Squarethecircle]

It's gone now, but the recent microwave looks very impressive (though only half the eye can be seen so far; pass not complete).

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 070049

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 82.3E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 160
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 15.1S/82.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.4S/83.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.5S/84.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.7S/87.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ AND CI=6.0+
HONDO HAS REACHED INTENSITY PEAK WEDNESDAY AT 1830Z AND SHOWS NOW A
LESS
DEFINED EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY , PROBABLY UNDERGOING A LIGHT
EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECASTED TO INFORCE SIGNIFICANTLY BERFORE 48
HOURS,
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR.
HONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON REMAINING ON ITS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS
TRACK
, UNDERGOING COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND
500
HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST),
THEN
MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.=

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to be around 115-120 knots. Nice little system and there is no islands, so I hope it becomes a cat5 if it can.

[petet]

Lets cross the fingers

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful Cyclone.

[Coredesat]

The system is nearly annular based on those microwave images; all it would need to do is throw off those last remaining convective bands.

[Chacor]

Strengthened further to 115 kt (10-min). If it strengthens any more it will reach Very Intense Tropical Cyclone stage.

002
WTIO30 FMEE 071223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 1200 UTC :
15.0S / 82.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.0S/83.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 16.7S/84.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.0S/85.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 19.5S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5+
HONDO HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOWS AN ANNULAR PATTERN
(YET SLIGHTLY ERODED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART) ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(CF AQUA 0757Z). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ; LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE
WELL ESTABLISHED, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RATHER
GOOD. HOWEVER TH
E SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTRO
PICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


.

[CrazyC83]

915mb - strongest storm on Earth since Dean...

[HURAKAN]

07/1430 UTC 15.0S 82.8E T7.0/7.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

Cat 5 according to Dvorak. I agree.





Impressive storm. Very compact and intense.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow. That's amazing.

It should last another few days if it's annular. JTWC holds at 120 knots, which is bizarre.

And by the way, how big is it?

Edit: I think that perhaps Wikipedia should start taking the usually more accurate pure Dvorak numbers that come out instead of the JTWC. In theory, the JTWC should be more accurate, but it's not.