Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[KWT]

Yep certainly does look like that, I also suspect when all is said and done this storm will be in the top 10 deadliest cyclones ever.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24482304/di ... 7/rpage/1/

this looks a lot like Holly Beach did after Rita

[Sanibel]

It all depends on the storm. Different storms have different fetch's (I call the inflow winds "draw" as in southern winds being drawn into the storm). If they had hurricane hunters taking data they would have more precise information on the southern inflow's size and shape. The reason the southern fetch is worse than other directions is because the ocean to the south of the storm tends to have the worst tropical humidity and latent heat content giving it a little more power. So combine this tendency with a prolonged track NE across the delta and you have a worst possible track scenario. Probably the Outer Banks are close enough to cooler Appalachian airmasses that the full effect doesn't happen. The Irrawaddy Delta, however, is surrounded on all sides by densely humid flat tropics and water saturated land.

I think the results are telling us that. There's no doubt about surge in this part of the world.


When I say right angle turning storms I mean storms that turn 90 degrees right and turn into the shoulder of surge already piled on that side and pile it even further. A storm heading on a straight track into the coast is perpendicular.

[P.K.]

The Times has some quotes from the IMD saying when they passed information to Burma.

India says it warned Burma about cyclone
Times Online

Indian meteorologists say that they gave authorities in neighbouring Burma 48 hours warning before a cyclone slammed into the country, killing as many as 60,000 people.

The comments from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) came after allegations from Laura Bush, the US First Lady, that Burma's military junta failed to warn its citizens of the impending storm.

“Forty-eight hours before (tropical cyclone) Nargis struck, we indicated its point of crossing (landfall), its severity and all related issues to Myanmarese agencies,” B.P. Yadav, an IMD spokesman, said.

The department is mandated by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation to track cyclones in the region. “Our job is to give warnings and in advance, and we take pride in saying that we gave warnings much, much in advance and there was enough time to take precautionary measures such as evacuation,” Mr Yadav added.

He said that starting in late April, the weather department was issuing regular advisories to Burma and other South and Southeast Asian countries that the cyclone was brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

“Way back on April 26, we told them a cyclone was coming,” Mr Yadav said, referring to general warnings of a growing storm.The IMD’s 41st and final advisory about the status of the storm was issued on Saturday, just after the cyclone hit land.

Mrs Bush yesterday accused Myanmar’s military regime of failing to take action to protect the remote part of the impoverished country from the storm. “Although they were aware of the threat, Burma’s state-run media failed to issue a timely warning to citizens in the storm’s path,” she said.

The IMD, which also alerted the World Meteorological Organisation, declined to comment on Mrs Bush’s allegations.

The official death toll from the cyclone stands at 22,000 with a further 41,000 people listed as missing. Most of the victims were killed in the Irrawaddy river delta, a remote but densely populated region of malarial swampland that is hard to reach at the best of times, experts say.

International aid agencies, which are still waiting for permission to enter the country four days after the storm, said delivering aid to such a remote region was posing a major challenge.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3881429.ece

[KWT]

If thats true then thats really shocking P.K, I hope other such regimes in that part of the world will take a lesson from this system, if you don't warn people that such a system is coming then of course there is going to be huge deaths its really quite shocking that the people in power could know such a system was coming but ignore to act upon the information.

[Sanibel]

Looks like we really got caught off guard here and a historic cyclone came in and did major devastation and death on Saturday. I checked in after not looking for a while and found Nargis making landfall. This landfall area looks like a situation similar to Bhola. The area has been tropically active.

[HURAKAN]

I did this graphic on May 1st showing the potential for storm surge. Probably it was historical.

[KWT]

Well Derek did say that it looked like it was becoming a powerful cyclone, I believe he said he thinks it was a high end cat-4 maybe even as cat-5...hurakan's image of it sort of does suggest it probably was, what a tiny eye and the convection is amazing how deep it was.

[dizzyfish]

I just can't seem to wrap my brain around why you wouldn't tell your own people of possible impending doom.

All those lives lost - it makes me want to cry.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Surge is the most dangerous part of a hurricane- I think surge killed many.

[KWT]

I think what Derek said in the main thread also had a part to play. People who tried to escape the surge and went up higher in their homes probably got hit by the extreme winds which probably gusted to at least 150-160mph I'd guess if not higher!

[KWT]

Exactly its madness, I think the fact that they are actually requesting for outside help sort of shows they have big time under-estimated just what a power these systems contain, its such a tragic story.

I guess its the single biggest human life-loss since boxing day 04?

[Derek Ortt]

warning for a category 1 cyclone is a lot different than warning for a cat 4 or 5. IMD are the last people who should be saying anything, unless they were saying somethig totally different than they were in the RSMC bulletins

[KWT]

Yeah true Derek though I suppose even warning for a cat-1/2 would still be better then what they probably actually got which likely was nothing!

[Derek Ortt]

from what I could gather (and of course, I may be wrong) was that they were expecting something like a cat 1 based upon the wind forecasts for Yangoon.

IMD probably should not ahve said anything as they just made themselves look even more incompetent as they have admitted to underwarning Myanmar

[MiamiensisWx]

Please keep in mind that it was a combination of poverty, extremely low-lying villages along the surge prone delta, and the shallow offshore shelf; the last factor is similar to the Gulf Coast. Burma (Myanmar) is an extremely poor country with substandard construction, so it only takes TS winds to inflict very extensive damage. Many weaker and large tropical cyclones have caused high death tolls in this region. In other words, although it is horrendous to mention, 1,000+ deaths is a regular occurrence during many TC landfalls along the Bay of Bengal fringing countries.

Very depressing...

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/stor ... 52,00.html

the official toll may be increased to 30,000 according to this article. Also, there are fears that the final toll may reach 250,000. Hopefully this is not the case

[Derek Ortt]

Also remember that Myanmar's rulers never issued warnings of the storm's impending landfall so millions of people who might have evacuated a similar storm in another country were unaware of the danger

Most of the responsibility falls on the junta, but remember that even if they had issued a timely warning and ordered an evacuation of the coast.....if Myanmar's military rulers ordered YOU to leave your home and get on a transport headed inland....what would you have done? Except for the lucky few with black-market sattelite connections who could have seen the (surprisingly adequate) forecasts coming from India's IMD....anybody in their right mind would have taken their chances with the cyclone given the choice, I imagine.

Calling a cat 4/5 cyclone a cat 2 is not providing adequate warning at all. It was stated in the active storms thread that IMD was warning the government of Myanmar of this cyclone (a quote from IMD). Seems as if Myanmar took precautions for a cat 1, and they got a 4/5. If this is the case, the responsibility then lies primarily with IMD for spreading BOGUS information

[KWT]

that truely would be horrific Derek honestly this is a true disaster of cataclyismic scale, not often would I use that word but if the fears are true then I think thats a fair statement.

Just heard that an estimated 40% of the dead are children...

[Hello32020]

Hopefully, the limited aid their government has accepted so far can be quickly distributed so those still alive and possibly homeless won't suffer further.