ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Weatherfreak14]

Paloma is just stunning looking for a Nov storm...Makes you want to do a double take at the calendar...

It sure is a beautiful storm for this time of the year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cayman Island is going through Hell right now with the eyewall approaching.
This could be a 120 mph category 3, recon should tell us shortly.

[Derek Ortt]

not yet in eyewall

if this is "only" a 3, I only expect moderate damage. They have what is likely the bets building code in the western Hemisphere for this very reason. Impact could be similar to Gilbert though

[jinftl]

From Dr. Jeff Masters blog...just update with some new info...


Damage potential for Paloma
Grand Cayman Island is not that prone to large storm surges, since it lies in deep water, and a hurricane's surge tends to flow around the island rather than get pushed up onto shore. The main concern from Paloma is wind damage. A direct hit from a Category 2 hurricane would likely do about $100 million dollars in damage, a nasty blow for an island that just this year finished recovering from the devastating punch delivered by Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Ivan damaged or destroyed 85% of the islands buildings, and caused $1.85 billion in damage. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months after the hurricane. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 1.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 1.5 on a scale of 1 to 6. These numbers will increase later today, but Paloma should be nothing like Hurricane Ivan.

According to the insurance company AIR Worldwide: Insured residential properties are dominated by wood frame and confined masonry. Commercial properties tend to not exceed six stories and are constructed of reinforced concrete. However, after the destruction wrought by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, the Cayman Islands underwent a major rebuilding process. New construction is now superior to much of the rest of the Caribbean countries in terms of wind resistivity. As a result, depending on Paloma's track through the islands, properties may sustain only minor to moderate damage to roof shingles and non-structural elements.

[I-wall]

This should be interesting...web cams located on eastern end of Grand Cayman RIGHT on the shoreline!!

do you have a link to these cams?

[wxman57]

Paloma's small wind field still not impacting the Grand Cayman airport much as of a few minutes ago. Wind 050 at 39 gusting 49 kts.

MWCR| |072300|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|050|039|049|999|OVC|Heavy Rain

I see the HRD put out a Paloma wind field analysis map as of just 30 minutes ago. According to that analysis, MWCR should be in 55kt winds now. You can see those strongest winds on the NW side. But they cover only a very tiny area.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

[cycloneye]

This should be interesting...web cams located on eastern end of Grand Cayman RIGHT on the shoreline!!

do you have a link to these cams?

Check the web cams posted in the thread at the top of the forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103838&p=1847068#p1847068

[DESTRUCTION5]

101 kt SMFR =Cat 3

[Derek Ortt]

just took a trochoidal wobble to the SE. Should shoot about 10NM north within the hour. At that time, hurricane force gusts are expected for Cayman

this now looks like a cat 4 on satellite

[Sanibel]

Intensifying category 3 should be some evening in Cayman. They'll remember this one.


I should have taken a picture of the solid dark line of clouds on the southern horizon over the Keys. That is Paloma's edge.

[Derek Ortt]

unconfirmed reports of 77KT gusts already near Georgetown

[Sanibel]

If it veers any more right Cayman Brac will get the hard NE shoulder of the storm tomorrow morning.

November version of "fist" in core. In the next hour the NW core will slide over Cayman.

[CrazyC83]

With multiple reports on the SFMR, I'd say 100 kt right now. Might see a special advisory soon.

[EyELeSs1]

Cat 3 status confirmed by Recon now.

[EyELeSs1]

NOW

[Cainer]

Wow, very impressive sat. presentation for a borderline Cat. 2-3. I would've guessed a Cat. 4. Lucky for the Caymaners that the winds haven't completely caught up to the pressure yet.

[Sanibel]

Live reports from Cayman on StormCarib of power flickering and conditions really starting to deteriorate.

[Sanibel]

If this is a tight eye it really bombed in intensity. If it is a partially obscured bigger eye it will get more of Cayman. If the eye seen here on shortwave is a complete tight eye Paloma should clip the east end or just miss:

[cycloneye]

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
50 KM...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT...BE NEAR CAYMAN BRAC SATURDAY MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING
THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR......WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

[superfly]