ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[loro-rojo]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

[jlauderdal]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

they also are calling for a shift to the right of the models, .

[Ed Mahmoud]

My eyeball of Punta Cana radar is some kind of circulation is landfalling now.

[weatherguru18]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

Completely, utterly unacceptable.

They retracted that statement about 15 minutes ago.

[Derek Ortt]

Arthur was a storm in the Caribbean. Advisories just did not begin until it was over land

[lonelymike]

I know WX57 said he didn't think this would get west of 85 because of the winds blowing west in the atmosphere Any other pro mets have any thoughts on that?

[MiamiensisWx]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

[Stormcenter]

I do have a question, how is it likely to form over the DR?

Not likely in my opinion but NHC seems to think it's getting better organized.


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

[Blown Away]

Does anybody really think 92L will survive almost 600 miles oover Hispanola and Cuba?

Yes, it's progged to turn north.

Have you seen most of the recent models, rate through the heart of Hispanola and then in Cuba for a day or so. I noticed at the 2pm NHC Outlook they extended the 48 hour development circle much more to the N, maybe because the system has expanded.

[img][URL=http://imageshack.us]

[GreenSky]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

Wow, talk about hype! Does Fox News Channel own those channels?

92L is going to be moving through the spine of the DR, and it is moving slower so it looks like it will be decimated in due time...maybe just a tropical wave or weak depression for South Florida if it even gets there.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

they retracked that report!!!!!!!!!

[fci]

It appears the MLC is going to cross the entire island of Hispaniola...that could spell the death of this system.

I second what was just said about Fox. I just heard them call it a depression and that "Fay" could impact the U.S. Then he went on to say..."and right on Fay's heels is another developing storm."

Not particularly responsible journalism
I will avoid further comment to preclude me from getting "political" at all.

Suffice it to say that I do not go to that outlet for my news.

[jlauderdal]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

which channels are telling people to prepare for a hurricane?

[senorpepr]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

How is that? Maybe I'm missing something, but I've yet to see any sort of west wind.

[capepoint]

I have no real scientific data. I just feel that with the wierd weather we have been having, and looking at the runs, that it will be picked up and dragged nw to n to ne along the coast. I just cant see it going into GOM. I think it will get sucked up north somewhat like Donna (or was it Hazel?) I know that the runs have shifted today, but the better ones have been showing the EC turn for a while. Will have to see some continuity in more runs, and something showing why it goes GOM, before I will change my mind. Historicly most storms that are on the N side of the islands or over the islands go N and E along Fla. GOM storms usually go S of the islands. Note I said USUALLY. In this case I hope I'm wrong and it does the UNUSUAL or better yet, just remains a wave and brings a good drought-buster to some lucky area. I have been through too many of these things to wish-cast a storm to come near me, but my gut says we got trouble brewing with this one (and/or maybe one following it)

[Category 5]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

Completely, utterly unacceptable.

They retracted that statement about 15 minutes ago.

Such gross errors are inexcuseable. Just my two cents.

[CrazyC83]

Well the chances are slim of it becoming a major and impacting SFLA (not enough time over water) but if it stays in the Atlantic over the Gulf Stream or if it goes into the warm GOM it will have the time and anything is possible.

Thanks, but anyone offer more evidence than warm waters? I'm not irriated; I'm merely a curious and informed south FL resident. Thanks!

I don't expect a major hurricane out of this but here is an example of just how fast systems can ramp up in the FL straits:

TS to CAT 5 in about 4 days or so.

Actually, it probably only took about 30 hours for that to go from a tropical storm to a monster Cat 5 - the pressure dropped from about 980 to 892 in 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

If the NHC has not upgraded this system by now, do you really think they will as it is moving into Hispanola and could likely be gone after passing through? What lat/long is the LLC?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

Wow, talk about hype! Does Fox News Channel own those channels?

92L is going to be moving through the spine of the DR, and it is moving slower so it looks like it will be decimated in due time...maybe just a tropical wave or weak depression for South Florida if it even gets there.

While it is possible that it moves across the entire spine of the DR, it is definitely not set in stone. I wouldn't assume that this will not try and jump north at some point.

[GreenSky]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

If the NHC has not upgraded this system by now, do you really think they will as it is moving into Hispanola and could likely be gone after passing through? What lat/long is the LLC?

All I can say is that if 92L was in GOM, the NHC would have upgraded this thing like 2 days ago