ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Duddy]

I have a question for those of you who know more about this than I do:

Without waiting for the next advisory....does it still look like this is going just south of Galveston? I dont know how to check all the models so i'm hoping someone can help me out. Thanks!

Looks to me like GFDL has it at 140mph at Matagorda Bay and HWRF has 130mph at Corpus Christi. The links to both of these models are posted further up the page. Just keep watching this page (and search back a few pages) and all the model links should be posted.

That's like the end of the world here.

[Nederlander]

Looks to me like GFDL has it at 140mph at Matagorda Bay and HWRF has 130mph at Corpus Christi. The links to both of these models are posted further up the page. Just keep watching this page (and search back a few pages) and all the model links should be posted.

GFDL isnt Matagorda Bay... its just SW of Galveston Bay near San Luis Pass....

[dwg71]

well i assume that the 48hr to 72hour positions are a recurve that passes through Central Texas coast.. Maybe south of Matagorda without a more hi res model, cant tell

[Nexus]

Looks to me like GFDL has it at 140mph at Matagorda Bay and HWRF has 130mph at Corpus Christi. The links to both of these models are posted further up the page. Just keep watching this page (and search back a few pages) and all the model links should be posted.

GFDL isnt Matagorda Bay... its just SW of Galveston Bay near San Luis Pass....

Yes, and 3 runs in a row now with GFDL just SW of Galv.

[Pebbles]

I have a question for those of you who know more about this than I do:

Without waiting for the next advisory....does it still look like this is going just south of Galveston? I dont know how to check all the models so i'm hoping someone can help me out. Thanks!

I-wall, because your newer around here and don't know which of the people around here truely are well informed and who aren't... I really want to point out the Tropical Analysis portion of our forums. This is where our pro-mets and more proven amatures post their thoughts.

This is the area you really want to be reading for info. Unfortunately, the discussion and model threads can get comments flying from very novice weather hobbiests and would hate for you to get misinformation from less reliable sources. Plus they are just plain hard to keep up with sometimes.

I would also like to point out AirForceMet's posts... he has gone into great lengths to discuss what he thinks the models are and will do in the future.

viewforum.php?f=29

[superfly]

Thoughts on the EURO? A west movement near corpus then goes due north left of Galveston...?

It's likely a curve with landfall near Matagorda...need someone with hi-res access to confirm.

[Duddy]

Thoughts on the EURO? A west movement near corpus then goes due north left of Galveston...?

It's likely a curve with landfall near Matagorda...need someone with hi-res access to confirm.

If you use your "hurricane curve eye", you can kinda see landfall near Matagorda.

I think.

[bob rulz]

Looks to me like GFDL has it at 140mph at Matagorda Bay and HWRF has 130mph at Corpus Christi. The links to both of these models are posted further up the page. Just keep watching this page (and search back a few pages) and all the model links should be posted.

GFDL isnt Matagorda Bay... its just SW of Galveston Bay near San Luis Pass....

Haha, sorry, not too familiar with the geography of the area.

[Nimbus]

Recon is finding dropping pressures again this morning and the convection is expanding as can be seen after the satellite eclipse.

Water vapor loop shows a little light shear over the northwestern quadrant of the outflow but the way Ike is deepening it does not look like it will be a factor.

It is interesting that the NO GAPS was the rightmost model this morning with the GFDL still putting Galveston under the bad side of the storm.

Short of a big slowdown stall scenario the Houston/Galveston area really looks like they are going to get hurt. This is not looking like a situation where you can just ride it out, clean up the yard afterward and run your generator for a week till the power comes back.

Ike is pumping up his high pressure dome so shear should not be much of a factor soon. These big storms have been known to stall and move off in different directions but with the current ridging that small possibility would happen too late in the forecast to be much help. We are running out of time for the evacuation decisions.

[dwg71]

nimbus pressure has been steady around 947 for a few hours..

dropped to 946 and most recent pass was 9473

[dwg71]

gfs has landfall between 48-54 hours at matagorda bay...

identical placement between 06z 54 hour and 00z 60hour.

[dwg71]

ukmet 6z only goes out 48 hours but its enough for a matagorda bay landfall

[Portastorm]

Anyone seen the 0z GFS run closely? It cuts off that low from the trough and the trough is not as deep coming through the Plains. Explains why the GFS thinks Ike stays more west-northwest through Texas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFDL shifts south to freeport area.

[cheezyWXguy]

nimbus pressure has been steady around 947 for a few hours..

dropped to 946 and most recent pass was 9473

as to be expected during an erc..

[Serenity]

amateur question here with the models ... I understand everything about the tracking/forecasting with landfall (pressure, wind speed) but I was curious how can you tell the "size" of the storm. For instance, latest advisory suggests shrinking wind field but I can't see anything really evident in the models I've seen this morning.

TIA.

[Portastorm]

I may be a nutjob (my wife would probably agree) ... and I know I'm a rank amateur ... but I need to say it would not surprise me in the least to see the track forecasts shift left and further south as we get closer to landfall. I think the GFS is on to something with the trough splitting out west and perhaps the ridge of high pressure over Texas doesn't erode as much.

Just my two pesos ...

[dwg71]

06 GFDL shifts south to freeport area.

more like palacious..

[A1A]

Other than the NHC, I believe the more reliable players here are the GFDL, AVNO (GFI?), and the HWRF. At this point, what are the merits? The HWRF is sure an outlier at this point.

[dwg71]

hwrf just south of matagorda bay and much weaker..73kts prior to landfall

dont we wish..