ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gboudx]

I may be a nutjob (my wife would probably agree) ... and I know I'm a rank amateur ... but I need to say it would not surprise me in the least to see the track forecasts shift left and further south as we get closer to landfall. I think the GFS is on to something with the trough splitting out west and perhaps the ridge of high pressure over Texas doesn't erode as much.

Just my two pesos ...

You know Porta, when I was looking at things early this morning I was having the same thoughts. I'm still wondering if Lowell will have any impacts. It's sending moisture into Texas now and will continue. I'm starting to wonder if Ike will hit further south and track more westward into Tx before pulling north.

[Sanibel]

GFDL did what I thought it would. It went right and pulled back left a little. So it didn't go far enough east of Houston to pull the track back over Houston in its correction back left. The track is solidifying as I was criticized for saying last night. NHC should be pretty accurate from here in.

[Cape Verde]

Here on the west side of Houston (Katy, to be precise), I don't know whether to be prepared for the dirty side of the eye, the dry side, or the eye itself. It makes a big difference in terms of how I protect household items against breaches through windows.

So, I'm watching the models very closely. The storm surge folks have more to worry about than me, but I'm plenty worried. And no, I can't protect the windows in my house. I'd kill myself in the attempt.

I'll be following the thread more than posting, because I have some things I can do no matter how this storm impacts me.

[gboudx]

CV, see the Obs thread or the Jeff Lidner thread for an update about evacs and zip codes. Maybe one you live in or near.

[haml8]

Here on the west side of Houston (Katy, to be precise), I don't know whether to be prepared for the dirty side of the eye, the dry side, or the eye itself. It makes a big difference in terms of how I protect household items against breaches through windows.

So, I'm watching the models very closely. The storm surge folks have more to worry about than me, but I'm plenty worried. And no, I can't protect the windows in my house. I'd kill myself in the attempt.

I'll be following the thread more than posting, because I have some things I can do no matter how this storm impacts me.

I asked Derek (pro met on this forum) this questions last night an he responded to me.. check pages 387-390... Also Jeff Linder in the TA forrm posted some great excerpts for review

I don't know where you live in Katy, but it is guaranteed to be one of the following:

Harris County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge of 15-20 feet along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4-8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Carla along W Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100-120mph SE 1/2 of the county and 90-111mph across the rest of HC with gust to 140mph. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power damage to the entire system and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend/Wharton County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90-115mph with gust to 135mph. Extensive wind damage to homes...roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85-100mph with gust to 120mph. Heavy wind damage to homes...some complete failures


Take care, I am boarding up my windows today... I live in Cinco Ranch..

[Air Force Met]

GFDL did what I thought it would. It went right and pulled back left a little. So it didn't go far enough east of Houston to pull the track back over Houston in its correction back left. The track is solidifying as I was criticized for saying last night. NHC should be pretty accurate from here in.

Wow...NCH accurate from here on out. Speaking from the EOM side of the house...one of the worse forecasted storms in a long time for EOM officials. The CRP track really changed the mindset of the local officials and most wrote it off after that. they need a attitude adjustment after this.

Now the scramble.

So the next time you guys start talking about how great they are...I will remind you all AGAIN that they are as good as their models. That is why they went to Baffin Bay...and I (and others) stayed near Matagorda.

[deltadog03]

Great post AFM...I am not going to bash anyone or nhc for that matter, but I was suprised that they went that far...All I have been hearing from some folks is that the houston/galveston peeps are just not trying to evac.....Is that correct?

[bzukajo]

I am leaving for the airport and I am flying to Houston. I will be landing at 7:30 pm local. I just check the models and I am so glad I had my girlfriend buy water, candles, and batteries last night. I was supposed to move her to a new apartment on Saturday. I think we will try to do this tonight and tomorrow instead. We will be in the MD Anderson/Baylor housing area. They are decent structures and they do not appear to be in a flood plane, however if this storm keeps it's projected path, it would be in a very bad place for the winds. Wicked bad luck on the moving day plan...........well...for better or worse...I am off to Houston....Ja ne!

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8091100!!/

Less han 72 hrs out now but i would guess the EURO was a bit further North this morning?

[Air Force Met]

Great post AFM...I am not going to bash anyone or nhc for that matter, but I was suprised that they went that far...All I have been hearing from some folks is that the houston/galveston peeps are just not trying to evac.....Is that correct?

They are just now waking up to that need.

The CRP landfall really throw a lot of people off...and Avila's romp down to Baffin Bay was the real bad decision.

[Windy]

I am leaving for the airport and I am flying to Houston. I will be landing at 7:30 pm local. I just check the models and I am so glad I had my girlfriend buy water, candles, and batteries last night. I was supposed to move her to a new apartment on Saturday. I think we will try to do this tonight and tomorrow instead. We will be in the MD Anderson/Baylor housing area. They are decent structures and they do not appear to be in a flood plane, however if this storm keeps it's projected path, it would be in a very bad place for the winds. Wicked bad luck on the moving day plan...........well...for better or worse...I am off to Houston....Ja ne!

Good lord man, what a time to move! Wait an extra day and buy some ropes and kites and you can fly her furniture to wherever it needs to go! Seriously, though, good luck, and hope you come through this thing.

[attallaman]

Here on the west side of Houston (Katy, to be precise), I don't know whether to be prepared for the dirty side of the eye, the dry side, or the eye itself. It makes a big difference in terms of how I protect household items against breaches through windows.

So, I'm watching the models very closely. The storm surge folks have more to worry about than me, but I'm plenty worried. And no, I can't protect the windows in my house. I'd kill myself in the attempt.

I'll be following the thread more than posting, because I have some things I can do no matter how this storm impacts me.

I asked Derek (pro met on this forum) this questions last night an he responded to me.. check pages 387-390... Also Jeff Linder in the TA forrm posted some great excerpts for review

I don't know where you live in Katy, but it is guaranteed to be one of the following:

Harris County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge of 15-20 feet along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4-8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Carla along W Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100-120mph SE 1/2 of the county and 90-111mph across the rest of HC with gust to 140mph. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power damage to the entire system and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend/Wharton County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90-115mph with gust to 135mph. Extensive wind damage to homes...roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85-100mph with gust to 120mph. Heavy wind damage to homes...some complete failures


Take care, I am boarding up my windows today... I live in Cinco Ranch..

I have an aunt who lives in Pasadena, Texas, should she be concerned about Ike? What website should I go to and see the areas in and around Houston which have been ordered to evacuate later today so I heard this morning on CNN, FOX Cable and MSNBC?

[attallaman]

I am leaving for the airport and I am flying to Houston. I will be landing at 7:30 pm local. I just check the models and I am so glad I had my girlfriend buy water, candles, and batteries last night. I was supposed to move her to a new apartment on Saturday. I think we will try to do this tonight and tomorrow instead. We will be in the MD Anderson/Baylor housing area. They are decent structures and they do not appear to be in a flood plane, however if this storm keeps it's projected path, it would be in a very bad place for the winds. Wicked bad luck on the moving day plan...........well...for better or worse...I am off to Houston....Ja ne!

Good lord man, what a time to move! Wait an extra day and buy some ropes and kites and you can fly her furniture to wherever it needs to go! Seriously, though, good luck, and hope you come through this thing.

Shouldn't you be flying away from Houston?

[mattpetre]

Models thread guys (try to limit non-model related talk)... Maybe a pro or experienced am could tell me who (as in what entity) makes/controls/runs each of the different models. Are all of them on supercomputer type systems or are some simple enough to run on a PC type machine?

[Nederlander]

I have an aunt who lives in Pasadena, Texas, should she be concerned about Ike? What website should I go to and see the areas in and around Houston which have been ordered to evacuate later today so I heard this morning on CNN, FOX Cable and MSNBC?

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett called for mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas starting at noon today. Those residents are in evacuation zones A and B, specifically ZIP codes 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586 and 77598.

Source: Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

[attallaman]

I have an aunt who lives in Pasadena, Texas, should she be concerned about Ike? What website should I go to and see the areas in and around Houston which have been ordered to evacuate later today so I heard this morning on CNN, FOX Cable and MSNBC?

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett called for mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas starting at noon today. Those residents are in evacuation zones A and B, specifically ZIP codes 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586 and 77598.

Source: Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

Thanks for the info.

[Cape Verde]

Here on the west side of Houston (Katy, to be precise), I don't know whether to be prepared for the dirty side of the eye, the dry side, or the eye itself. It makes a big difference in terms of how I protect household items against breaches through windows.

So, I'm watching the models very closely. The storm surge folks have more to worry about than me, but I'm plenty worried. And no, I can't protect the windows in my house. I'd kill myself in the attempt.

I'll be following the thread more than posting, because I have some things I can do no matter how this storm impacts me.

I asked Derek (pro met on this forum) this questions last night an he responded to me.. check pages 387-390... Also Jeff Linder in the TA forrm posted some great excerpts for review

I don't know where you live in Katy, but it is guaranteed to be one of the following:

Harris County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge of 15-20 feet along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4-8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Carla along W Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100-120mph SE 1/2 of the county and 90-111mph across the rest of HC with gust to 140mph. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power damage to the entire system and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend/Wharton County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90-115mph with gust to 135mph. Extensive wind damage to homes...roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85-100mph with gust to 120mph. Heavy wind damage to homes...some complete failures


Take care, I am boarding up my windows today... I live in Cinco Ranch..

Hi, neighbor. I also live in Cinco Ranch. Ft. Bend County, but close to the Harris County line. I don't know how you're boarding up your windows. I have glass in every room on both stories, some well over 30 feet high and circular. There is no freaking way to wrestle plywood up a ladder anchored in a flower bed with large decorative rocks beneath me without making one mistake and killing myself before Ike arrives. And I couldn't do just one side of the house since nobody knows where the eye will pass relative to us.

I'm just going with plastic sheeting and duct tape for disaster recovery if and when I lose windows.

[Nederlander]

Models thread guys (try to limit non-model related talk)... Maybe a pro or experienced am could tell me who (as in what entity) makes/controls/runs each of the different models. Are all of them on supercomputer type systems or are some simple enough to run on a PC type machine?

here is some good information on the models Matt

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

[haml8]

Here on the west side of Houston (Katy, to be precise), I don't know whether to be prepared for the dirty side of the eye, the dry side, or the eye itself. It makes a big difference in terms of how I protect household items against breaches through windows.

So, I'm watching the models very closely. The storm surge folks have more to worry about than me, but I'm plenty worried. And no, I can't protect the windows in my house. I'd kill myself in the attempt.

I'll be following the thread more than posting, because I have some things I can do no matter how this storm impacts me.

I asked Derek (pro met on this forum) this questions last night an he responded to me.. check pages 387-390... Also Jeff Linder in the TA forrm posted some great excerpts for review

I don't know where you live in Katy, but it is guaranteed to be one of the following:

Harris County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge of 15-20 feet along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4-8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Carla along W Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100-120mph SE 1/2 of the county and 90-111mph across the rest of HC with gust to 140mph. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power damage to the entire system and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend/Wharton County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90-115mph with gust to 135mph. Extensive wind damage to homes...roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85-100mph with gust to 120mph. Heavy wind damage to homes...some complete failures


Take care, I am boarding up my windows today... I live in Cinco Ranch..

Hi, neighbor. I also live in Cinco Ranch. Ft. Bend County, but close to the Harris County line. I don't know how you're boarding up your windows. I have glass in every room on both stories, some well over 30 feet high and circular. There is no freaking way to wrestle plywood up a ladder anchored in a flower bed with large decorative rocks beneath me without making one mistake and killing myself before Ike arrives. And I couldn't do just one side of the house since nobody knows where the eye will pass relative to us.

I'm just going with plastic sheeting and duct tape for disaster recovery if and when I lose windows.

Big ladder, strong arms... multiple family members will be helping Also I don't have hardly any high windows on the second floor.

[mattpetre]

Models thread guys (try to limit non-model related talk)... Maybe a pro or experienced am could tell me who (as in what entity) makes/controls/runs each of the different models. Are all of them on supercomputer type systems or are some simple enough to run on a PC type machine?

here is some good information on the models Matt

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

Thank you, read through all of that and it was very interesting. I would love to see some code behind these things... are any of them publicly available? Algorithms, pseudocode, etc.?