ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Tampa_God]

The tracks are making this a North Mexico storm, but the way the storm is moving and the slowness of the ULL, I see this affecting the southern part of Texas.

[Nederlander]

Just from me watching it very closely the past couple days, that ULL moved pretty swiftly west, which may have helped Dolly move to a more Northward track. Just my eyes, but I do think the ULL helped Dolly move North. On a side note, I am also from the Beaumont/Port Arthur Area, and I remember Rita quite vividly.. although it didnt form in the caribbean, the track pointed toward south texas early on, then mid texas, and finally made landfall in Sabine Pass. So I am watching this very closely, especially if that ridge weakens and Dolly strengthens rapidly.. as it looks like she is trying to do as we speak... I think the cone will be moved more northward in the coming hours. Not sure how much though. Guessing game until she gets over the yucatan

[vaffie]

it looks like the llc and the mlc might be merging/consolidating right now, resulting in a northerly relocation of the center.

[HURAKAN]

The tracks are making this a North Mexico storm, but the way the storm is moving and the slowness of the ULL, I see this affecting the southern part of Texas.

It's too early to say anything like that. Especially when you leave open the option of a weakness in the ridge as Dolly nears the WGOM.

[KWT]

Its certainly possible Tampa_God and the cone of uncertainty wll be over Texas as well as Mexico so both places need to watch this system pretty closely.

FWIW I see amotion of around 300 stil lat the moment about what its been doing for the last 24hrs as well, looks like NE Yucatan at greatest risk of heavy rains and also of some pretty high winds, how high depends on how much strengthening occurs in the next 12hrs.

Vaffie, thats possible lets see what the recon fixed show in terms of movement.

[Nederlander]

it looks like the llc and the mlc might be merging/consolidating right now, resulting in a northerly relocation of the center.

I agree. I see exactly what you are talking about on the latest visi loop

[RL3AO]

Visible image with the advisory position and 12-hr and 24-hr forecasts from the NHC.

[KatDaddy]

Augggggggggh! Gotta take a break. I have been analyzing every move since 4:30AM. Focusing on the LLC and MLC. Someone else take over

I am going to have a beer, set in the backyard, and clear my head. Ah I love the tropics.

[Cape Verde]

I have a friend in Lumberton, and her story was similar.

It was hell.

It wasn't the flooding or storm surge or anything like that. Lumberton isn't on the coast. It was being trapped without power forever with inaccessible roads. No help, no nothing.

After the hurricane passes, it quickly gets hot with no way to cool off.

[Innotech]

just got back from a day at the rifle range to find TS Dolly. I was bullish on this storm from the beginning, because like I said, she looked like a fighter and survived the eastern caribbean shear and kept going. she survived the ULLs onslaught, and I knew in my gut that she was riding the ULL and TUTT northward and wouldnt hit Honduras. The only problem is, the gut feeling I originally had also said she would be a Cat 3 into middle Texas, so I really hope that part ends up wrong.

[Bertha08]

The tracks are making this a North Mexico storm, but the way the storm is moving and the slowness of the ULL, I see this affecting the southern part of Texas.

It's too early to say anything like that. Especially when you leave open the option of a weakness in the ridge as Dolly nears the WGOM.

So I know this will make me sound like a weather weenie, buuut where is this weakness located?

[sphelps8681]

We dealt with that for a week. Finally left and went to Dallas. Which was about the only place going North with power. Came back a week later still no power. We were without power for almost 2 months.

It's not worth staying for.

[weatherguru18]

just got back from a day at the rifle range to find TS Dolly. I was bullish on this storm from the beginning, because like I said, she looked like a fighter and survived the eastern caribbean shear and kept going. she survived the ULLs onslaught, and I knew in my gut that she was riding the ULL and TUTT northward and wouldnt hit Honduras. The only problem is, the gut feeling I originally had also said she would be a Cat 3 into middle Texas, so I really hope that part ends up wrong.

Not that it would be "good" or "better" per se, but I think we want this to hit in Kennedy County. That's where Brett ended up and it is very sparcly populated.

[Cape Verde]

Not that it would be "good" or "better" per se, but I think we want this to hit in Kennedy County. That's where Brett ended up and it is very sparcly populated.

Nooooo!! My favorite hunting lodge is there!

[HarlequinBoy]

Not that it would be "good" or "better" per se, but I think we want this to hit in Kennedy County. That's where Brett ended up and it is very sparcly populated.

Nooooo!! My favorite hunting lodge is there!

But it's the least populated county on the United States coastline, I believe.

[mvtrucking]

WTNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

....DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[gregnami]

When do they update the track models?

[ColdFusion]

WTNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

....DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

No northern relocation there.

[Nederlander]

I am really curious why so many forecasters are expecting slow strengthening of Dolly. Everything that I see suggests that intensifaction is favorable in the Gulf, unless they are seeing something I am not. Also, I am still yet to see a more WNW turn. On this track, especially if the center is indeed moving northward, Dolly may just barely clip the Yucatan. Any thoughts?

[Jagno]

The poster who said that they would ride any size storm in a closet...................I trust that you are alone with no children because this is what we call "reckless endangerment" and there is absolutely no excuse for it when you have so many knowledgeable folks here that will tell you ahead of the media to GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE for your own safety. Oh wait, did I mention that my closet was on the next block following Rita. I'm not trying to be mean but PLEASE consider the consequences of your actions on those around you, those that love and depend on you. Even if you waited and left with the masses it's still worth every single life you spared. Rant off!

I just left Wal Mart here in SW Louisiana and I got 4 out of the only remaining 18 cases of bottled water left. No one here, after living through Rita, seems to be taking this system for granted; regardless of where the cone is. The fact that they aren't being complacent makes me feel good.