ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[weatherguru18]

The coordinates are updated only at 5 and 11 aren't they? That's also when the cone is reconfigured. They don't do it for intermediate advisories that I'm aware of.

[PTrackerLA]

Augggggggggh! Gotta take a break. I have been analyzing every move since 4:30AM. Focusing on the LLC and MLC. Someone else take over

I am going to have a beer, set in the backyard, and clear my head. Ah I love the tropics.

LOL I know exactly how you feel! The latest visible satellite seems to indicate a possible relocation further north. Time for yard work...

[Just Joshing You]

Looks like a center is becoming clear and evident on the latest IR image.

[weatherguru18]

Augggggggggh! Gotta take a break. I have been analyzing every move since 4:30AM. Focusing on the LLC and MLC. Someone else take over

I am going to have a beer, set in the backyard, and clear my head. Ah I love the tropics.

LOL I know exactly how you feel! The latest visible satellite seems to indicate a possible relocation further north. Time for yard work...

Yeah it is. Time to hit the rec center.

[Nederlander]

I will go out on a small limb here and say that Dolly passes just north of Cozumel.. I cant see her going any further south.

[Just Joshing You]

What is the current heading that Dolly is following? If the center is located 20/83.5, then it may clear the yucatan easily.

[littlevince]

Visible loop with forecasted path

[gboudx]

What is the current heading that Dolly is following? If the center is located 20/83.5, then it may clear the yucatan easily.

From a post a few above yours, the center is at 18.6 N...84.5W.

[Just Joshing You]

It's scary how fast this is organizing.

[Nederlander]

Visible loop with forecasted path

I think your center is too far south...

[Just Joshing You]

What is the current heading that Dolly is following? If the center is located 20/83.5, then it may clear the yucatan easily.

From a post a few above yours, the center is at 18.6 N...84.5W.

That isn't the updated center. It looks like the center has jumped a bit.

[KWT]

The center is down at 18.6N according to the NHC extradited, I'd be surprised if it clear the Yucatan but it may take a fairly quick path across the Yucatan, I suspect it will be clear of land within 12-15hrs of landfall at the most IMO.

what you are seeing is the old MLC which is weakening.

[Just Joshing You]

Does anyone else see what I see on this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Look at 20.0 N 83.5W. I see something.

[hurricanefloyd5]

This could hit the EXTREM ne Y.P in mexico. I sayd this because if it's move nnw/relocating then this is what could very well happen!!!!!!!!!!

[senorpepr]

Now that there are advisories out, I've added the track to the charts

[mattpetre]

I have to admit, that although I was overly bullish on the development at one point last week; I'm getting rather nervous for the TX coast today. This storm has defied quite a few proposed demises and is now getting almost perfect conditions for development. I really wish it had completely fizzled as it looked like it was about to do when it reached the Leewards, the upper coast of SA, and even as late as yesterday. I am still a firm believer that two significant events occured that really helped this storm, 1) the ULL helped it finally gain significant convection but in my opinion 2) the wave that was 95L actually helped clear out much of the strong shear that was previously in the Caribbean that probably would have done Dolly in for good a few days ago. Most everyone agrees with point 1, but I don't find anyone else that agreed with my second theory. I am by no means and expert, but I do know that 95L experienced quite a few more adverse circumstances in the Caribbean than 94L did.

[ColdFusion]

What is the current heading that Dolly is following? If the center is located 20/83.5, then it may clear the yucatan easily.

From a post a few above yours, the center is at 18.6 N...84.5W.

That isn't the updated center. It looks like the center has jumped a bit.

Yes, it is the updated center. Just released by NHC. They've hinted at no Northerly relocation. Its extremely difficult to pick out an LLC from IR. Dont try to use that to peg a LLC.

[Jason_B]

I think SE TX and SW LA should also be keeping a close eye on Dolly, if I remember right it was Cindy in 05 that was foretasted by the models to take a similar track but the center relocated shifting the track dramatically. I'm not saying that will happen here but with all the convection more off to the NE side of the storm it's a possibility.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes, it is the updated center. Just released by NHC. They've hinted at no Northerly relocation. Its extremely difficult to pick out an LLC from IR. Dont try to use that to peg a LLC.

Well, thats the exact coordinates of the 11am advisory. I think they kept the coordinates because they are unsure of where it is now. It looks like it got sucked underneath the MLC, and now the deep convection to the west is wrapping into the system. I expect at least 50, maybe 60 mph at the next advisory.

[KWT]

The main difference there is Jason B the center now looks well defined where as with Cindy it had multiple centers and just so happened the eastern most one got going, shouldn't have that issue with Dolly.

I don't see any signs of a relocation at all, still under that deep convection.