ATL: IKE Discussion

[shorty121]

Is NOAA49 doing recon? I'm watching it on flightaware and it's definately flying around Ike now.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[Carrie]

Looking at this map showing the Cuban topography, and seeing some of the models, I have a question.

If Ike misses the mountainous terrain on the Southeastern tip and cruises along the more flattened plains area before emerging from the island nation, will it still be enough to weaken it as much as some were contemplating that it would earlier today? Some folks seemed to indicate that Ike may be disrupted all of the way down to a TS and I know that I saw at least one post that claimed a possible TD even.

I know that land interaction interferes with these storms but, I'm just wondering how much weakening would occur if Ike missed the higher elevations that could possibly be in his path.

Thanks for any input.

~Nikki~

**AMATEUR HERE** It depends greatly how long he is over the land, flat or not. If it is at like an angle NE to SW, over a short distance, the impact would be less than if it crossed at an angle SE to NW, over a LONG distance.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Thank you, Physicx07

I am guessing that that would translate to Ike being able to resume his major category strength quite quickly once moving into some of the warmest waters in the Gulf that are just to the Northwest end of Cuba, correct?

~Nikki~

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Thank you, Carrie

I understand your point. I was just curious as to whether even that scenario would knock him down to TS or even TD size as was thought earlier today.

I'm hoping against all hope that something beats old Ike down before he possibly enters the Gulf!

Thanks to you all for entertaining my concerns!

~Nikki~

[attallaman]

I was reading comments in the Ike model thread which seem to indicate that Ike now might pose a threat to parts of TX or TX/MX. Is the threat to the CGOM region less tonight than it was yesterday? If it looks like Ike is TX bound is there anything in the upper atmosphere that could cause Ike to threaten the CGOM region again in the next few days? I certainly hope not.

[jinftl]

As we saw with Gustav when he didn't regain anything near his pre-cuba landfall strength while traversing 88 degree water to louisiana...it will depend on how much disruption to the storms core takes place over land...if there is any shear present. No lack of warm water for sure....i guess you could say that is necessary, but not sufficient for strengthening. That said, it would seem a more likely scenario than not.

It is what happens...where Ike goes...how strong he is...in the short term that really should be an interesting thing to watch...how much of cuba does he interact with and what does that do to him.

So much can happen between now and the Gulf...it is grueling, but it could be 5+ days till we know with confidence. Plus alot of harm could be done in the interim wherever he decides to go next. Turks & Caicos got brutalized tonight.

Thank you, Physicx07

I am guessing that that would translate to Ike being able to resume his major category strength quite quickly once moving into some of the warmest waters in the Gulf that are just to the Northwest end of Cuba, correct?

~Nikki~

[jinftl]

The NHC isn't even sure whether Ike will move over or just off of Cuba..tomorrow. It is torture i know, but to raise or lower threat for a landfall at a specific...which actually extends beyond the 5 day cone right now..so we are talking a margin of error of hundreds of miles...is pointless.

It is something to watch..models will flop flip....many times....in the coming days. I was in the center of the cone less than 48 hours ago in south florida. not in the cone now. see how fast things can change!

I was reading comments in the Ike model thread which seem to indicate that Ike now might pose a threat to parts of TX or TX/MX. Is the threat to the CGOM region less tonight than it was yesterday? If it looks like Ike is TX bound is there anything in the upper atmosphere that could cause Ike to threaten the CGOM region again in the next few days? I certainly hope not.

[Tom8]

Maybe Ike will bonce and will cheange the course

[attallaman]

Maybe Ike will bonce and will cheange the course

Maybe Ike will do what?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Lowest Pressure Location (Pass #1): 2108N 07136W (Lowest Pressure: 944.8mb)
Lowest Pressure Location (Pass #2): 2108N 07157W (Lowest Pressure: 946.0mb)

Hurricane Ike Highest winds:

NorthEast: 120kts
NorthWest: 117kts
SouthWest: 094kts
SouthEast: 105kts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NorthEast:
NorthWest:
SouthWest:
SouthEast:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Field Profile (60kts +):

NorthEast:
NorthWest: 116.75 Miles from center
SouthWest: 39.33 Miles from center
SouthEast: 44.06miles from center

[jinftl]

Real-time conditions out of reporting station in Turks & Caicos...winds sustained at 58mph, gusting to 70mph!


http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

[Tom8]

Maybe Ike will do what?

will make bound

[attallaman]

Maybe Ike will do what?

will make bound

Will make bound? Would you care to explain what you mean?

[Tom8]

Maybe Ike will do what?

will make bound

Will make bound? Would you care to explain what you mean?

will cheange the cource
will make the curve

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

[quote="jinftl"]As we saw with Gustav when he didn't regain anything near his pre-cuba landfall strength while traversing 88 degree water to louisiana...it will depend on how much disruption to the storms core takes place over land...if there is any shear present. No lack of warm water for sure....i guess you could say that is necessary, but not sufficient for strengthening. That said, it would seem a more likely scenario than not.

It is what happens...where Ike goes...how strong he is...in the short term that really should be an interesting thing to watch...how much of cuba does he interact with and what does that do to him.

So much can happen between now and the Gulf...it is grueling, but it could be 5+ days till we know with confidence. Plus alot of harm could be done in the interim wherever he decides to go next. Turks & Caicos got brutalized tonight.[quote]



You are absloutely right. I guess that I was getting a little ahead of the game and questioning the "what if's" about something that is up to 5 days in the future. My apologies.

My thoughts and prayers have been and will continue to be with anyone and everyone who has been and will be in the path of this horrendous storm.

Thanks,
~Nikki~

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

Theres nothing in recon that would suggest a ERC yet. Theres no 2nd wind maxima, there is no mention of concentric eyewalls, or anything like that that would tell me its going through a ERC or will be starting one with in the next few hours

Edit: lol never mind you mean rapid weakening not eyewall replacement. Thats what you get for reading to quickly!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

Theres nothing in recon that would suggest a ERC yet. Theres no 2nd wind maxima, there is no mention of concentric eyewalls, or anything like that that would tell me its going through a ERC or will be starting one with in the next few hours

I changed it to RWC=Rapid weaking cycle, it is the opposite of RIC. Sorry...

This is because the northeast quad had 8 knots lower winds, and the pressure appears based on EXTR to be 3-4 millibars lower. Of course it is not offical.

[Texashawk]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

Theres nothing in recon that would suggest a ERC yet. Theres no 2nd wind maxima, there is no mention of concentric eyewalls, or anything like that that would tell me its going through a ERC or will be starting one with in the next few hours

I changed it to RWC=Rapid weaking cycle, it is the opposite of RIC. Sorry...

This is because the northeast quad had 8 knots lower winds, and the pressure appears based on EXTR to be 3-4 millibars lower. Of course it is not offical.

Lost a lot of its cold cloud tops in the last few hours. Interesting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

Theres nothing in recon that would suggest a ERC yet. Theres no 2nd wind maxima, there is no mention of concentric eyewalls, or anything like that that would tell me its going through a ERC or will be starting one with in the next few hours

I changed it to RWC=Rapid weaking cycle, it is the opposite of RIC. Sorry...

This is because the northeast quad had 8 knots lower winds, and the pressure appears based on EXTR to be 3-4 millibars higher. Of course it is not offical.