ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Cape Verde]

Visible loop with forecasted path

Boy, it sure is hard for the naked eye to put the LLC center south of that burst of convection.

[ronjon]

A couple of observations from VIS SAT. The first is that the ULL located over the Yucatan is really weakening and moving off to the W-SW. Second, there is a really broad low level circulation - any "re-locating of the center" will just be where the LLC tightens up - it appears to me that the center is trying to consolidate a little further north and east, say near 19N-84W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[ROCK]

A couple of observations from VIS SAT. The first is that the ULL located over the Yucatan is really weakening and moving off to the W-SW. Second, there is a really broad low level circulation - any "re-locating of the center" will just be where the LLC tightens up - it appears to me that the center is trying to consolidate a little further north and east, say near 19N-84W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

I am in total agreement. RECONs fix earlier was a good fix for that time 18.6... however the LLC is still trying to stack, being pulled into the old MLC we saw earlier. N and E.....

[hurricanefloyd5]

It looks like it is tucking that LLC into the center of itself. Like being sucked in or something. Run this loop and you can see what appears to be the LLC getting sucked up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

does anyone else see this...its getting sucked into the middle and almost is trying to form an eye like feature.

Eye thing Eye see something like that but it's not!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ROCK]

no eye.... .early stages of developement....

[jhamps10]

A couple of observations from VIS SAT. The first is that the ULL located over the Yucatan is really weakening and moving off to the W-SW. Second, there is a really broad low level circulation - any "re-locating of the center" will just be where the LLC tightens up - it appears to me that the center is trying to consolidate a little further north and east, say near 19N-84W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

yeah I am seeing the same thing, although I would possibly take it a bit north of 19, say 19.2 or 19.3...

and that is NOT an eye forming....

[KWT]

It probably looks like its getting sucked up because the old MLC is now clear as day again whilst earlier it was covered by convection. If I had to place it its probably close to where ronjon said, its clear there is some curveature around that region maybe a little north of 19N. Does seem like the center is trying to stack up with that MLC and getting taken a little further north.

[littlevince]

Boy, it sure is hard for the naked eye to put the LLC center south of that burst of convection.

Well, I checked everything again with the overlay, and I think everything is correct, this is the official path.
I apologise if there is an mistake but I think not.

[Cape Verde]

If the LLC is where it was thought to be at 11 a.m., then this storm has a NE/2 and nothing at all on the SW/2.

And without shear or dry air to possibly explain that, how could this be? How can you have only half of a tropical storm unless it's getting ripped apart, and if anything, this seems to be intensifying?

[ROCK]

19N 84W looks like a good bet right now....

[Nederlander]

[Skyhawk]

Recon currently occurring. Plane just passed through center at 18 deg 41 min N 84 deg 45 min W.

[KWT]

I think thats pretty close to where the center currently is Nederlander, there is some cyclonic turning near that, if that does turn out to be close to the center at the moment then we may see the track needing to be adjusted a little to the north for the 24hrs forecast anyway, also would make it skirt the Ne Yucatan and wouldn't spend much time over land.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think that is where the center really is right now!!!!!!!!!!

[TheRingo]

That's good except now I think it's even more northwards track. Might even miss land altogether.

[dwg71]

recon has it near 18.8 and 84.9 or so...seems to be right on NHC track.

[Cape Verde]

That's the only place that makes visual and logical sense to me.

[Innotech]

I see that too. Its notr an eye but the LLC is definitely moving up underneath the MLC convection now. A few frames earlier you could see the actual LLC spinning up before convection quickly conceleaed it. This feature has since move a tad northward.

[vbhoutex]

Recon currently occurring. Plane just passed through center at 18 deg 41 min N 84 deg 45 min W.

Is this your estimation or is it official? If it is official please provide a link even if it is to somewhere else on this site.

[KWT]

Current estimated direction according tothe NHC is 305 over the last 6hrs which puts it pretty close to NW, if that really is where the center is its not impossible for it to head through the Yucatan channel, we will have to wait and see, the higher angle maybe because the center was being pulled towards the MLC over the last few hours.