TC Bertha

[senorpepr]

With Bertha more than 750nm away from Bermuda, I've dropped the zoomed-in Bermuda chart.

Here's an animated GIF of those Bermuda surface plots as Bertha passed by...

[cpdaman]

okay she is now 13 degrees to the west of the large deep layered trough/low to her east and getting closer

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

NOW is it possible that when this low pushed her southeast (like forecast to do within 12-36 hours) that she could be driven far enough down to be out of the influence of the westerlies and perhaps be guided westward by a building ridge

[cycloneye]

Another record in the books made by Bertha:

WTNT32 KNHC 152034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY...

BERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC
HISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER. THIS
ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM
STORM #2.

[KWT]

Wow yet another record falls to Bertha, a very impressive storm for July and just makes you wonder what the rest of the Cape Verde season has in store for us.

[Brent]

Another record in the books made by Bertha:

WTNT32 KNHC 152034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY...

BERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC
HISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER. THIS
ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM
STORM #2.

Very impressive.

[HURAKAN]

It stood for 92 years, quite an impressive trophy for Bertha to have.

[KWT]

Yep so we have the most easterly forming TS, hurricane and also major hurricane, longest lasting TS and also 2nd highest ACE in July...am I missing any!

[HURAKAN]

Unless there is a dramatic storm or weather event in the next half of July, I think Bertha has under the wings the title of "Storm of the Month."

KWT, you forgot the most rapid intensification from hurricane to major hurricane.

[HarlequinBoy]

Go Bertha!!! What a nice *fish you are.


*I say fish because of minimal effects to Bermuda.

[Noles2006]

Easy, now, Hurakan... there's still half a month to go...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks close to being a hurricane again. I hope it gets that one last promotion before it starts to fizzle over the colder waters of the open Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

Easy, now, Hurakan... there's still half a month to go...

That's why I specified. There are still too many days left in July.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a hurricane, but there is no way to confirm this.

[KWT]

The eye is getting ragged again, I think its chances for becoming a hurricane again are decreasing somewhat based on that image, I think 60kts is probably about right looking at it now.

Edit- hurakans image doesn't look quite so bad but it is clouding up still.

[ekal]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2008 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 36:28:24 N Lon : 62:12:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 999.3mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -3.7mb

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -45.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 36:40:11 N Lon: 62:12:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

I wonder why the Dvorak method is not estimating Bertha's intensity well.

[KWT]

Its interesting ekal, it clearly can't be right given the current strcutrue it has, can't see why it has only 2.7 when there is a clear eye sutrcture with Bertha...

[kpost]

[Extremeweatherguy]

[cycloneye]

No hurricane at the latest best track data:

AL, 02, 2008071600, , BEST, 0, 367N, 618W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 75, 90, 75, 75,