ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[gatorcane]

Keep an eye on the convective burst around 11-12N. The convection will generate inflow if it persists tonight. That is where the LLC will either form under or move to. NE Caribbean is at risk of a hurricane by Friday, though it could pass just north of the Caribbean. I still don't see anything to carry it as far west as the East U.S. Coast, but I'm not ready to declare that there's no risk to the U.S. Let's see how it develops first.

Wxman thanks for your insights as usual....by the looks of this thread you would think it were destined for the United States.

FACT: it is WAY too early to say for sure.

Let's hope that Bertha is leaving enough of a weakness to carry this thing NE of the islands and out to sea.

[weatherguru18]

From San Juan NWS: (Snippet from Forecast Discussion this afternoon). Courtesy of DJJordan on KHOU.

...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 38W. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRY AND DEVELOP A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A TRACK THAT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION SEEMS
IN ALIGNMENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. EVEN SO...NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES WARRANTED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE
EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THIS WAVE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, nice research on those surface obs....I like to use this site to look at surface waves as well as the SCAT ( which comes out later).....Surface waves at about 10N-12N at around 40W have started to take on that classic look...


http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

That is also another tool to use to kind of get a idea if a LLC is developing. Not as good but it doe's show what the obs are showing.

[Sanibel]

Buoy 41026 12N-38W East wind 13Kts.


Buoy 13009 8N-38W West wind 8Kts.

[Aric Dunn]

well by chance the system is sitting right in between two buoys this evening one just the north(41026) and one just to the south (13009)
anyway the only surface data depicts a closed low as the northern buoy has a east wind and the southern has a west wind.. although not very symmetrical

41026
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

13009
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13009

[Sanibel]

The center is probably closer to 41026 because of the higher windspeed. Should be a TD soon if it isn't already.

[Aric Dunn]

well if what im seeing is what im seeing.. than the organizing low that was semi visible earlier before the sun went down and the convection fired is hard to find first of all .. but the new convection firing near 11n 40w looks to have some curved features to it and it building northward.. which would put a possible center forming near 11n 41w still hard to tell but we will have to wait and see
..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

no TD until they are for sure it has broken away from the ITCZ

[boca]

well if what im seeing is what im seeing.. than the organizing low that was semi visible earlier before the sun went down and the convection fired is hard to find first of all .. but the new convection firing near 11n 40w looks to have some curved features to it and it building northward.. which would put a possible center forming near 11n 41w still hard to tell but we will have to wait and see
..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

The info you posted on the buoys would be enough to warrant a depression forming I would think.

[Aric Dunn]

well if what im seeing is what im seeing.. than the organizing low that was semi visible earlier before the sun went down and the convection fired is hard to find first of all .. but the new convection firing near 11n 40w looks to have some curved features to it and it building northward.. which would put a possible center forming near 11n 41w still hard to tell but we will have to wait and see
..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

The info you posted on the buoys would be enough to warrant a depression forming I would think.

not while its still embedded within the ITCZ

[ftolmsteen]

IMO I still don't think this is a depression. But I do think it will be one by 11 am tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO I still don't think this is a depression. But I do think it will be one by 11 am tomorrow.

now that is possible

[HURAKAN]

[ROCK]

looks pretty darn close to a TD with that view. Also surface obs Matt showed had a west wind....As far as being detach from the ITCZ it looks to have done just that tonight.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Some rotation is already visible in the AVN.

[Brent]

That looks good...

[NDG]

IMO I still don't think this is a depression. But I do think it will be one by 11 am tomorrow.

now that is possible

That's what I am given it, 12-24 hrs to be a TD.

[Sanibel]

Shortwave IR shows southern inflow and what looks to be faster formation than is being expressed here:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shortwave IR shows southern inflow and what looks to be faster formation than is being expressed here:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I agree, we need new quickscat and 85h data.

[Jason_B]

I think we're pretty close to TD status right now if not there already, probably have Cristobal by tomorrow afternoon if this organization keeps up.