ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2008092118, , BEST, 0, 179N, 673W, 30, 1009, TD,

Depression @ 11?

That was from 2 PM.

[MGC]

I hope everyone down in the islands stay safe during this big rain event.....MGC

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best track has position at the NW coast of Puerto Rico.

AL, 93, 2008092200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 675W, 30, 1010,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


However,ssd dvorak has a different position South of Puerto Rico.

21/2345 UTC 17.8N 65.7W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


The question is which of those positions is the right one?

Nobody has answered about which of these two positions is the correct one,although 57 said dvorak is assuming.I ask as I am in the middle of it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I spy with my amateur eye, a -80º pixel...

[Dean4Storms]

I cannot help but think that the deep convection south of PR will consolidate the low and form the LLC overnight. This ball of concentrated convection has been the missing factor to this point for 93L and I bet sets it off overnight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Radar suggests possibility of multiple centers, with one obvious one just South of Ponce.




I think this'll probably become something, but exactly where the primary center forms, is a mystery.

[caribepr]

Ed, I DO know what you mean, but from our perspective, it already is something. We're out of the lull and back in the torrential rain; this system is very big when you consider our distance from San Juan and that we're getting slammed again big time as they are as well, and that we're still only at the top of the system as it goes north...or close to it.

You big islanders' be safe!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Of course, bound to be uncertainty when where center forms is uncertain, but GOMEX, and even SFL, seem somewhat unlikely...





I'd hazard a guess options range between North Florida to Nova Scotia, with Bermuda and the sleeping w/ Lucca Brazzi options open as well. Unofficially.


Edit to add- responding (without quoting) a post that seems to have disappeared...

[canetracker]

93L sure looks to be moving slowly and refiring convection over PR / adjacent islands and according to the flash flood warning:

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PRZ001&warncounty=PRC127&firewxzone=PRZ001&local_place1=San+Juan+PR&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning

Hope all stay safe on the islands and hopefully it will move out fast.

[jinftl]

The difference in these 2 possible centers would have big implications as far as current intensity (more likely a td if center more east and closer to convection center) and the model runs....which were initialized closer to the 'best track' center. A center 100 miles east could have huge model implications.....presumably raising the threat to bermuda and lowering it to the u.s.....granted, the threat level this far out is by definition 'low'.

The impacts on the current whether in the islands would be impacted by a center further east and possibly developing.

00:00 UTC Best track has position at the NW coast of Puerto Rico.

AL, 93, 2008092200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 675W, 30, 1010,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


However,ssd dvorak has a different position South of Puerto Rico.

21/2345 UTC 17.8N 65.7W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


The question is which of those positions is the right one?

[Sanibel]

Computer problems. Managing through Internet Explorer.

This is GFDL track of 48 hours ago. GFDL is performing in stars this year.

[canetracker]

Is this a center of circulation, SE of PR, trying to pop up on radar?

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO
RICO INDICATE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON SOME
PARTS OF THE ISLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[jinftl]

NHC putting system near Mona Passage which would be off the west coast of PR.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO
RICO INDICATE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON SOME
PARTS OF THE ISLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[Fego]

Already two death related with 93L, according to goverment officer.

[ROCK]

Of course, bound to be uncertainty when where center forms is uncertain, but GOMEX, and even SFL, seem somewhat unlikely...





I'd hazard a guess options range between North Florida to Nova Scotia, with Bermuda and the sleeping w/ Lucca Brazzi options open as well. Unofficially.


Edit to add- responding (without quoting) a post that seems to have disappeared...

thanks for jinxing SFL, Ed.. ......

[cycloneye]

When I see the radar,it looks like plenty of twisting South of Puerto Rico,instead in the north side of the island as the best track position showed.But anywhere any center that may try to organize,the effects has been and will continue to be the same,and that is excesive amounts of rain that haved caused already many rivers to go over their banks,two deaths haved occcured,many cars stucked on high water,over 5,000 without power and dams opening its gates.So there is anything to assume about positions as the important thing is occuring right now regardless of any center position.

[Driftin]

no rain at the moment here in San Juan. There are reports of 15 inches of rain in the SE of the island and two deaths due to rising waters. Hope it doesnt get any worse.

[canetracker]

Unfortunately, 93L does not appear to be moving much at all on radar http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif or on the floater http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html.

[CrazyC83]

Already two death related with 93L, according to goverment officer.

They don't count as deaths related to the season if this doesn't develop, correct? (Still tragic either way though )