ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Squarethecircle]

That's one for July, one for August, one for September, one for October, and one for November.

[KWT]

Very impressive hurricane for the time of year, certainly does look like a major hurricane right now and recon confirms that is the case.

[O Town]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok thats an unbelievable animation right there O....

[Sanibel]

Big wobble right on visible. (Wobbles count at this point) This could be a Cayman Brac storm rather than Grand Cayman. We'll see if it straightens back out.

(Depending on where surface eye is compared to satellite)

[Derek Ortt]

the wobble wont matter with the strongest winds in the NW eyewall

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking good. I would think it has a shot at cat4 strength.

[caribepr]

Looking good. I would think it has a shot at cat4 strength.

Aw, Matt, why do you say that stuff...especially after looking at that graphic...that is an island with PEOPLE on it. Sheesh, after all this time, I thought...oh never mind.

[EyELeSs1]

07/2345 UTC 18.8N 81.0W T6.0/6.0 PALOMA

an increase of 1.5 in 6hrs

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2008 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 18:46:51 N Lon : 81:02:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.1 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Just Joshing You]

Anyone post the AHI of Paloma yet?

[cycloneye]

07/2345 UTC 18.8N 81.0W T6.0/6.0 PALOMA -- Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe up to 110 knots with pressure nearing 948-952. Strengthing fast now.

[El Nino]

07/2345 UTC 18.8N 81.0W T6.0/6.0 PALOMA -- Atlantic

Please don't tell me it will be a cat4 now. At this rythm, I wake me up tomorrow with a cat5 monster !

[CrazyC83]

07/2345 UTC 18.8N 81.0W T6.0/6.0 PALOMA -- Atlantic

Please don't tell me it will be a cat4 now. At this rythm, I wake me up tomorrow with a cat5 monster !

A Cat 5 in November would be historic.

[Just Joshing You]

There's probably no way we'll ever know unless they estimate. There won't be a plane in the storm at max intensity, right?

[sevenleft]

There's probably no way we'll ever know unless they estimate. There won't be a plane in the storm at max intensity, right?

There will be an aircraft in the storm at 1AM ET, 5 hours from now.

[Derek Ortt]

I think we have a definitive change in track

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think we have a definitive change in track

18Z GFDL takes it to E Cuba rather than Central..This could be the start...

[jinftl]

why were those solutions junk again (48 hours ago)?

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk