ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

So the 4pm takes it a little further south...

that's good to hear.
I guess my cousin who lives in South Padre will be coming up to Houston.

In the discussion they don't seem to know where exactly Dolly is going to go. There are still too many unknowns. What a perplexing system.

models have been saying northern mexico for quite sometime now, seems to be straight forward.

[Innotech]

Another thing to consider with DOlly and her musical chairs LLC is that when she goes over the Yucatan, she may actually try to relocate her center to the North once inland. Storms have done this in the past, not always passing directly through the Yucatan on a fixed heading.

[gboudx]

LoL. Even then, some will still not believe it and put the LLC somewhere else.

[funster]

So the 4pm takes it a little further south...

that's good to hear.
I guess my cousin who lives in South Padre will be coming up to Houston.

In the discussion they don't seem to know where exactly Dolly is going to go. There are still too many unknowns. What a perplexing system.

models have been saying northern mexico for quite sometime now, seems to be straight forward.

So the NHC must be concerned the models are missing something?

[zaqxsw75050]

Not really....

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END. IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.

[ColdFusion]

models have been saying northern mexico for quite sometime now, seems to be straight forward.

wow, you have more confidence in the 5 day models than even the NHC.

[KWT]

dwg71, the models are close to S.Texas as well ,indeed some are actually just into southern Texas so its hardly as simple as you make out, there is good agreement on track but 30 40 miles difference means either Texas or Mexico gets hit by a possible hurricane. Even if NHC is right S.Texas would probably need a TS warning at least, probably hurricane warning if that forecast came off.

[Seadootoo]

So the 4pm takes it a little further south...

that's good to hear.
I guess my cousin who lives in South Padre will be coming up to Houston.

In the discussion they don't seem to know where exactly Dolly is going to go. There are still too many unknowns. What a perplexing system.

models have been saying northern mexico for quite sometime now, seems to be straight forward.

IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.

[zaqxsw75050]

LoL. Even then, some will still not believe it and put the LLC somewhere else.

It was pretty obvious where the LLC is, no question about it. The problem is will it relocate/reform to the NE.

[ColdFusion]

Last few frames of the visable - very easy to be fooled by that MLC, sure looks like the center of this mess.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[TexWx]

Funny thing is, I've tried to go against the NHC (because I didn't think they were right), in my head so many times.

I'm tired of getting worked...

[Praxus]

Interactions with land create complexities that make it harder to forecast for of course, and this system has been hard to call since day 1... so even though the NHC track seems reasonable, the system is still something of a wild card. Especially with intensity.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be like a center is indeed trying to relocate more NE as members have been suggesting. If that is true, the track will surely need to shift to the right with significant implications as to not only the strength (since Dolly may be over the Yucatan for less time) but for where it final target is in the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

So the NHC must be concerned the models are missing something?

you're reading way too much into their discussions

it is too soon to say due to the margin of error. A 50 mile difference in track means the USA or Mexico. It is too soon to say which country and what city will be impacted

But the general heading is straight forward

[Aric Dunn]

when recon gets back there in an hour or so , i think they are going to find a different looking system ..

[TexWx]

Plus I have a newborn, so I'm definitely trying to "wishcast," away...

"A 50 mile difference in track means the USA or Mexico."

Heck, a 100 feet.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Am I mistaken or when the outerbands move northward then that means the storm will follow??Am I right???????

[KWT]

We may have something of a power struggle developing with a new LLC maybe trying to form under that MLC, there was no hints of that on recon but if the currnet LLC is starting to weaken it would give such a thing to occur.

[ROCK]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov

Click and animate 15 frames......if this is not relowing I will run down the street in my thong but I am only 195lb and 10% body fat...so Ed I got you beat....


Seriously look beyond the high clouds, you can see hint of lower level clouds swirling around the center.....

[ColdFusion]

Last few frames of the visable - very easy to be fooled by that MLC, sure looks like the center of this mess.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

Well so far it only *looks* like a duck. No quack yet.