ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Brent]

Hello Fay

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013,

Finally!

[rockyman]

even more important than "Hello, Fay" is "Hello, official 5 day forecast track"

[cycloneye]

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

[gatorcane]

so will we finally see an official advisory at 5pmEST????

[CrazyC83]

Hello Fay

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013,

Finally!

It's a lot more than 35 kt...

[txag2005]

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

Is this just a forecast or evidence this thing is getting upgraded?

[Dean4Storms]

Those of us who contended that the LLC was between DR and PR were evidently correct.

There never was a LLC off to the north moving WNW as some claimed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is where Best Track places the center...



The NHC will probably agree with this general location in their initial advisory.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

See a tropical storm just formed over land I believe it formed a few hours ago, as there has been westly winds on the southern coast of DR for about as long.

[Brent]

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

Is this just a forecast or evidence this thing is getting upgraded?

That pretty much guarantees an upgrade at 5pm ET, it's as close to official as you get without it. Comes straight from the NHC.

[Ptarmigan]

I remember reading Jeff Master's blog saying that computer models had 92L becoming a major hurricane. Looks like Faye has formed.

[Air Force Met]

Hello Fay

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013,

Yep...and it sure as heck isn't sitting on the north coast...or off the north coast of the DR.

Where's Aric?

[fwbbreeze]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

FAY

[jinftl]

As a wave, this feature has generated news here in south florida....if we have a named system and south florida is in the 'cone' at 5pm, this is really going to take off as a news item down here.....the onslaught will begin in less than an hour

[tolakram]

06.NONAME is on the NRL but not listed as active. It is FAY, just show all storms if you need to browse to it. FYI you can't link to NRL pages, they are temporary.

[Praxus]

Woot Fay, finally. Now we can get some more reliable models.

[weatherwoman]

Looks like JB won't get his NC hit yet, that's ok. What a monster of a mess this system is. I really do hope that the drought stricken south gets some rain out of this at least.

JB is not changing his idea yet he is not ready to do that!

[txag2005]

When is the first set of models due after this unofficial upgrade? I'm hoping we'll get a better sense of where this thing is going as pretty much everyone from the west GOM to the Carolinas on here is curious.

[jinftl]

right, now models can be initialized with an actual center having been located

Woot Fay, finally. Now we can get some more reliable models.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If I were to issue the watches and warnings:

Hurricane Watch - Southeastern and Central Bahamas

Tropical Storm Warning - Central and western Puerto Rico, all of Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos

Tropical Storm Watch - Jamaica, Cuba east of 78°W