ATL: IKE Discussion

[Javlin]

can anyone post a loop for me to see the direction of ike

should presistn 1KM loop

[KWT]

I'm not sure Sanibel ,from what the pros have said its pretty much impossible to tell on Vis imagery and you need microwave imagery to really know.

Anyway from what I've heard 80% of houses are damaged on T&C sadly...

[ronjon]

The Gulfstream IV jet did a very thorough sampling of the upper air data with a takeoff at 1:16 am and landing at 7:56 am from MacDill AFB. Most of this data will make it into the 12Z and 18Z model runs today.

[cheezyWXguy]

You can see a secondary eyewall slit over Inagua if you look closely:

I actually dont think that what this is. What you are seeing is a new blowup of thunderstorms on the northwest side that is now starting to cover the very shallow convection, which was a result of a dry air intrusion. It may very well be the start of an erc, but it doesnt look like it to me.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 9:55 AM EDT:

[jhpigott]

The latest at 9:55 AM EDT:

so much for going south of great iguna island . . .

[KWT]

I wonder whether the land interaction will be enough to weaken Ike to a cat-3. It was borderline last recon mission and that may make the difference.

[meteorologyman]

I wonder whether the land interaction will be enough to weaken Ike to a cat-3. It was borderline last recon mission and that may make the difference.

Even a little weaknes could chang the track of a storm, but it will more than likely reintensify to Cat4, before Cuba if it does weaken

[wxman57]

12Z NAM is even further north. In 18 hours a fair distance of the cuban coast.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

NAM is about the worst model to use for hurricanes. I think even CLipper beats it.

[marciacubed]

Doesn't Ike seem to be moving more West IMO he is not moving SW

[cycloneye]

The latest at 10:10 AM EDT:

[KWT]

Wxman57, would you agree on a motion over the last 2-3hrs of around 265, looks like its moving roughly at the same angle as the Grand Inagua coast.

Microwave imagery does sort of suggest there is a outer eyewall strengthening.

[deltadog03]

Hey WXMAN, hope you get a day one day..lol, but anyway, I know the nam is crap usually for tropical weather, but what about the synoptics over the conus?? I have found it too be not great, but not horrible either. NAM looks like its really trying to errode that ridge by hour 42 now.....

[Chacor]

This is based on the NHC's 6-hour interpolated official forecast (OFCI) issued at 12z (downloadable here).

This may or may not be the official forecast track at the 11am advisory.

[cycloneye]

10:15 AM EDT

[gatorcane]

west movement commencing folks.

[jlauderdal]

can anyone post a loop for me to see the direction of ike

should presistn 1KM loop

pow, dead center shot

[jlauderdal]

west movement commencing folks.

4 frames of west movement isnt enough to declare that gator, we need more

[meteorologyman]

If west movement commenced then this will be north of the 2nd Trop Fcst point, so the models could shift north

[cycloneye]

west movement commencing folks.

4 frames of west movement isnt enough to declare that gator, we need more

More than 6 hours.