ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

221330 1930N 08544W 6169 04198 0069 +050 +011 300007 007 010 000 00
221400 1929N 08543W 6168 04198 0067 +050 +011 315006 007 012 000 00
221430 1927N 08541W 6168 04199 0067 +050 +016 324006 006 014 000 00
221500 1925N 08539W 6168 04197 0067 +049 +018 316005 005 013 000 00
221530 1923N 08537W 6167 04199 0069 +049 +013 303005 005 009 000 00
221600 1922N 08536W 6169 04196 0068 +050 +011 292006 006 009 000 00
221630 1920N 08534W 6169 04195 0067 +049 +017 296007 007 009 000 00
221700 1918N 08532W 6170 04195 0069 +050 +010 296007 007 007 000 00

Lowest pressure so far: 1006.7 mb

[CycloneNL]

big storm

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The ridge over the northern Gulf should keep this system
on a path towards Texas. As Tropical Storm Dolly moves around
the periphery of the ridge, it will take the NHC path.

[Ed Mahmoud]

big storm

Nice picture, but what is the source?

[stevetampa33614]

What do you guys think.

I think it is moving west towards the Yucatan. Sometimes the outflow/shearing
of systems can confuse people about the direction.

True but I have been tracking storms forever. I know what the Center looks like and the center is curling, into the center

Now at 19.5 and 84. You can see it on IR shift.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html


Edit none of this affects the path that much. Not saying this thing is hitting anywhere but Texas, this will effect the intensity forecasts somewhat and im sure we wont see any weaking over the Yucatan, because its going to miss most of it.

[KWT]

What do you guys think.

That looks pretty close to me, I would probably have it a little further S/SW but that does look close IMO.

Tampa bay god, well recon has been fixing a WNW track that they has been suggestion of a slightly more northerly track to around 300-305 recently which agrees with the NHC forecast as you say.

Also yep that suggests a very big system...

[Javlin]

hard to argue the NW or WNW track of the NHC now that I have glanced at the CIMSS steering currents

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[CycloneNL]

big storm

Nice picture, but what is the source?

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

i look always on this site for storm tracks and NHC of course

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What do you guys think.

I think it is moving west towards the Yucatan. Sometimes the outflow/shearing
of systems can confuse people about the direction.

True but I have been tracking storms forever. I know what the Center looks like and the center is curling, into the center

Now at 19.5 and 84. You can see it on IR shift.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html


Edit none of this affects the path that much. Not saying this thing is hitting anywhere but Texas, this will effect the intensity forecasts somewhat and im sure we wont see any weaking over the Yucatan, because its going to miss most of it.

Oh sorry I didn't mean to imply that the shear was confusing you...
I took a look at it and I think that for me the Convection did move
north but the Center? I don't know where the center is going-
So I'll take Derek Ortt's Word for it when he said it could
go into the Yucatan

[amosmoses]

hard to argue the NW or WNW track of the NHC now that I have glanced at the CIMSS steering currents

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

just judging from that, wouldnt it send the storm west/southwest?

[Cape Verde]

Well, who can't be a little alarmed about THAT?

[Yankeegirl]

so i know we are all depending on this ridge building over texas, so what if it doesn't? how and when are we going to know that the ridge is or isn't building? I do see that the rain chances are up here on wednesday to 50%. To me it looks like the path as of now is going into Mexico and heading west, so how does that up the rain chances for us? Just a few questions.....

[Wx_Warrior]

Big rain maker and gusty winds for the popular Cozumel and Yucatan later this evening.

[KWT]

Yep Wx_Warrior, Yucatan has TS warnings and its quite possible we could see 50mph wind gusts near the center of the system by the coast, also as you say a big rain maker, though it is moving through quickly.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, not flooding rains but they will get TS stuff here during the evening hours. Talking to a couple of pro mets, they CAUTIOUSLY agree with models, which say south Texas.

[TTheriot1975]

Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf? If it does weaken...will that change the direction of the storm? In my experience with Rita...that is what led her here...she was forcasted for Brownsville...and the track just kept shifting to the east....what about now? Any chance?

[Steve]

Speaking of resources, don't forget the internet's own Skeet-O-Byte.

Models:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... &m=04&av=4

Better official track graphics:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... &m=04&av=2

[funster]

Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf? If it does weaken...will that change the direction of the storm? In my experience with Rita...that is what led her here...she was forcasted for Brownsville...and the track just kept shifting to the east....what about now? Any chance?

The strength of the ridge is still one of the questions that can't completely be answered yet. I think that's why the cone is so wide at the end.

[Wx_Warrior]

This is not Rita.

[Ed Mahmoud]

hard to argue the NW or WNW track of the NHC now that I have glanced at the CIMSS steering currents

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

just judging from that, wouldnt it send the storm west/southwest?

I would like to point out to the poster from South of Thibodaux, Louisiana that the presence of Dolly is altering the apparent steering currents. That is why tropical models need a bogussing scheme to properly predict track. May even involve Heidelberg.


NHC web page has a discussion of how models for TC's don't confuse themselves with the TC. I'm off to look.

Edit to add- good question for the ask a met forum. Why doesn't the Northeast flow on the East side of a cyclone steer it Southwest?