ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[stevetampa33614]

Speaking of resources, don't forget the internet's own Skeet-O-Byte.

Models:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... &m=04&av=4

Better official track graphics:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... &m=04&av=2

ah yes skeetobyte. My opinion is the models are initializing the center way further south than they should be. Imo, intensity forecasts will be up in the air.


good day all.

edit please dont compare this to Rita, Dennis, or Emily not even close. Leave that for the noobs at flhurricane who see cat.9's out of cirrus clouds

[KatDaddy]

And we dont know how weak the ridge may or may not be in 2 days.

[Nederlander]

from my viewpoint, it looks like she is going to have to travel due west in the gulf to make a n.mexico hit... i dont know how strong this ridge is going to be, but so far it doesnt look like dolly has been steered that way

[Steve]

>>Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf?

The NHC discussion specificially addressed this point. Go to official sources for official information:

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY REACHES THE GULF

What did they tell you? It's not a question of whether or not it is supposed to, jsut that models show it weakening. There are already some upper clouds streaming into LA from the SW, so it's already not that strong even if they are riding up and over. Don't freak. Read the NHC Discussions.

Steve

[Nederlander]

I think the question is, if its already weakening and is forecast to continue, then why are the models tracking so far south?? shouldnt it move more north if that ridge weakens?

[funster]

I think the question is, if its already weakening and is forecast to continue, then why are the models tracking so far south?? shouldnt it move more north if that ridge weakens?

That's been puzzling me as well.

[vaffie]

Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf? If it does weaken...will that change the direction of the storm? In my experience with Rita...that is what led her here...she was forcasted for Brownsville...and the track just kept shifting to the east....what about now? Any chance?

No one has answered it because no one can answer it yet. Below is what the NHC says at the end of their forecast discussion. Yes, it could happen. It could shift to the north inch by inch--especially if it becomes a really strong hurricane and pushes to the right. I wish we knew. I could at least focus on something else for a few minutes.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END. IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.

[HouTXmetro]

>>Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf?

The NHC discussion specificially addressed this point. Go to official sources for official information:

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY REACHES THE GULF

What did they tell you? It's not a question of whether or not it is supposed to, jsut that models show it weakening. There are already some upper clouds streaming into LA from the SW, so it's already not that strong even if they are riding up and over. Don't freak. Read the NHC Discussions.

Steve

Maybe the remnant ULL is ushering the high clouds towards LA.

[stevetampa33614]

I think the question is, if its already weakening and is forecast to continue, then why are the models tracking so far south?? shouldnt it move more north if that ridge weakens?

The models have incorrectly initialized the storms CoC too far south IMO.

but its still no gonna effect LA-Florida. This is going to be a texas/Mexico thing.

[Cape Verde]

>>Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf?

The NHC discussion specificially addressed this point. Go to official sources for official information:

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY REACHES THE GULF

What did they tell you? It's not a question of whether or not it is supposed to, jsut that models show it weakening. There are already some upper clouds streaming into LA from the SW, so it's already not that strong even if they are riding up and over. Don't freak. Read the NHC Discussions.

Steve

That seems a bit harsh. Wouldn't the amount of weakening be critical? Especially when the the NHC forecast predicts a slowing of forward movement?

I think if all we need is the NHC center pronouncements every few hours, then this forum has less reason to exist.

[cpdaman]

different pockets of 1006 mb readings throughout a variety of latitudes

at 20.6 N 86.3 1 reading at 1006.2

at 19.9 N / 85.2 2 readings at 1006.7

at 19.4 N / 85.6 4 reading at 1006.7

[canegrl04]

Bottom line is :It is known where intial landfall will be,but once it gets into the GOM,path and strength uncertain

[Javlin]

hard to argue the NW or WNW track of the NHC now that I have glanced at the CIMSS steering currents

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

just judging from that, wouldnt it send the storm west/southwest?

Trust me kinda confused me also for what those maps show and what looks to happening are two different things at the moment.I guess I was not clear enough but those maps lend themselve to the WNW motion the NHC is issuing not exactly my beliefs at the moment just probably one of the tools the NHC is using I would think along with much more.

[wxman57]

Shouldn't 94L be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by now?

Quite busy day - at the office from 5am-5pm. No days off when there's a storm. I think the NHC's NW track looks a bit off. Center may reform a bit north with more westerly motion tonight/Monday morning followed by NW Turn. Landfall area looks ok. What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane? If the upper winds are as the GFS is forecasting, look for a period of rapid intensification in the SW Gulf Monday evening/Tuesday.

Ok, dinner time. Had to schedule a bathroom break on my Outlook calendar earlier today. I'll have more help tomorrow with my other team members rested.

[TTheriot1975]

Thank you CapeVerde...I thought the intent of this board was to talk and ask question...not get slammed every time you to ask one.

[KWT]

Quire messy cpdaman if thats the case, may have something of a circulation battle going on there if thats the case but will wait to see which fits best withthe data that come sin...almost certainly above 19N now, I'd guess the 19.5 estimate someone made earlier is fairly close but it all depends on what pocket of lower pressure you believe is the center, also it could be anywhere in that large convective blob IMO.

[Steve]

>>Maybe the remnant ULL is ushering the high clouds towards LA.

There are a bunch of features at play which you can view on a long water vapor loop - in the Atlantic, Caribbean, CONUS southwest and west of the system.

>>That seems a bit harsh.

Re-read what he posted the way it was posted "OR" "NOT" like someone is stamping their feet because no immediately addressed the question. Well nobody knows. It's all there in black in white by the NHC.

[Recurve]

If this system filled in the south side...large windfield possible. The convection over Cuba and Honduras is feeling the effects now, the inflow is stretching and outflow looks good.




From http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shouldn't 94L be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by now?

Quite busy day - at the office from 5am-5pm. No days off when there's a storm. I think the NHC's NW track looks a bit off. Center may reform a bit north with more westerly motion tonight/Monday morning followed by NW Turn. Landfall area looks ok. What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane? If the upper winds are as the GFS is forecasting, look for a period of rapid intensification in the SW Gulf Monday evening/Tuesday.

Ok, dinner time. Had to schedule a bathroom break on my Outlook calendar earlier today. I'll have more help tomorrow with my other team members rested.

If you also predict 90 knots just South of BRO you'll also match Joe Bastardi, just like Derek.

[Ivanhater]

>>Maybe the remnant ULL is ushering the high clouds towards LA.

There are a bunch of features at play which you can view on a long water vapor loop - in the Atlantic, Caribbean, CONUS southwest and west of the system.

>>That seems a bit harsh.

Re-read what he posted the way it was posted "OR" "NOT" like someone is stamping their feet because no immediately addressed the question. Well nobody knows. It's all there in black in white by the NHC.

Its going to be a looong season Steve