ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CrazyC83]

Extremely difficult intensity forecast here. A slight change in the track could make the difference between Fay not becoming a hurricane and becoming a very intense and extremely dangerous hurricane.

[txag2005]

I'm interested to see the next couple rounds of model runs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have edited the NHC map to include 2am times in between each 2pm Dot. Here is what it looks like...



It looks like this will be coming ashore sometime between 2am and 2pm on Tuesday if this track actually plays out, but the outer effects could begin as early as Monday morning or afternoon.

[gatorcane]

I see Fay trying to lift more north now......center now skirting the ENE tip of DR.

Here's a quick loading loop:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[AJC3]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102380&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Incredible. On August 7 I said that Fay would form on August 15 on the Western Atlantic Ocean. Fay formed in the Caribbean but very close to the WAO. Woohoo!!!

Actually, Sandy, I don't think it can be considered that it formed in either the ATLC or the CARIB. On the other hand, maybe it can be considered both.

Either way, nice guestimate.

[CrazyC83]

I have edited the NHC map to include 2am times in between each 2pm Dot. Here is what it looks like...



It looks like this will be coming ashore sometime between 2am and 2pm on Tuesday if this track actually plays out, but the outer effects could begin as early as Monday morning or afternoon.

The last time there was such a forecasting nightmare was Hurricane Charley, and this has some of the same dynamics - although in this case a right turn (slight) would be a good thing to keep Fay over land more. But not too much that it misses Florida in which case it would be able to tap in the Gulf Stream and explode. Likewise, missing Florida to the west - even a slight left turn - or missing Cuba (needs more of a left turn) would also be really bad.

[DESTRUCTION5]

AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

[Normandy]

Don't know if it is moving WNW, hard to tell...It could be an illusion of the convection building northward, or it could be moving WNW. Despite that, the circulation is rather robust and well defined, and has inflow from all sides pretty much right now. Its actually doing better than i expected for being over such a mountainous landmass. It should be noted that if this storm does happen to clear the Northern DR coast before reaching Haiti, this will likely be a HUGE problem as it might not interact with Cuba as much.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102380&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Incredible. On August 7 I said that Fay would form on August 15 on the Western Atlantic Ocean. Fay formed in the Caribbean but very close to the WAO. Woohoo!!!

Actually, Sandy, I don't think it can be considered that it formed in either the ATLC or the CARIB.

But Hispaniola is in the Caribbean!

[JPmia]

"Complicating matters is the possibility of land
interaction causing erratic motion and reformation of the center."

I think this is an important part of the discussion...any center reformations because of land interaction could change things all over again. Lots to watch this weekend!

Btw, Broward Emergency Mgmt. is getting geared up.

[Trader Ron]

Four day's is a lifetime. I'm sure the models will change.

[Aric Dunn]

we need to watch for this

"COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA."

[storms in NC]

I see Fay trying to lift more north now......center now skirting the ENE tip of DR.

Here's a quick loading loop:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

How many times do you think the models will change? With this being the first one out too. I don't think it has ever done what the first run said. I could be wrong to.

[AdamFirst]

I could've sworn that I saw a west-northwest wobble on the visible and infrared satellite loops...I don't know, I tend to see things sometimes

[cpdaman]

we need to watch for this

"COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA."

yup but her center is still about 80 miles or so EAST of the high mountain ranges, and she should start tap dancing North or South very soon, and gator cane i really don't see a north movement on that loop, not yet anyhow.

[gatorcane]

I see Fay trying to lift more north now......center now skirting the ENE tip of DR.

Here's a quick loading loop:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

How many times do you think the models will change? With this being the first one out too. I don't think it has ever done what the first run said. I could be wrong to.

I think the cone should shift around quite a bit...and intensity forecast is going to be very difficult...

[Dean4Storms]

I would suspect that any center reformation would occur on the south side of DR where deeper convection is seen and better deep tropical inflow can occur.

[txwatcher91]

Visible, radar, and IR APPEAR to indicate it is moving WNW. IF this is the case, then that would allow much more time over water.

[txag2005]

I imagine we should have a better idea of how Fay will be moving across DR/Haiti for the 11 PM EST advisory. It will be interesting to see if there is any shift in the track at that point.

[gatorcane]

Visible, radar, and IR APPEAR to indicate it is moving WNW. IF this is the case, then that would allow much more time over water.

Well I'm glad I'm not the only one see a more WNW movement (or wobble?)

Fay's time to dance in my opinion....as very tall mountains near