ATL: IKE Discussion

[tolakram]

Nice do it yourself loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-75&map=latlon&zoom=1&info=ir&quality=90&type=Animation&numframes=16&width=1200&height=800&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=white

[KWT]

Looks like Ike has now lifted onto a due west track, maybe even a degree or two above west looking at the sat.loops recently.

Any wobble from now on will make a big difference as to eventual track over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Yes,I wonder why they haved not departed yet.

[Sabanic]

Looks like Ike has now lifted onto a due west track, maybe even a degree or two above west looking at the sat.loops recently.

Any wobble from now on will make a big difference as to eventual track over Cuba.

Sure looks that way.

What is this now? 4 straight weeks we have been tracking?? Crazy!

[jinftl]

Cuba can soon get the ball rolling to help this whole situation out....a long trek over cuba's spine might hopefully so disrupt the inner core and dynamics of ike that he will re-emerge in the water as a torn up mess....maybe if he is that weak he will be even less likely to be influenced by dynamics from the north that could turn him more into the gulf. so in this hypothetical, a disorganized mess emerges off cuba, heads west as he is weak and moved more by ridge....ends up in yucatan, rains himself out.

[jinftl]

exactly....consider this...the first hurricane watch for the u.s. just went up at 11am...you would think we would be in damage assessment and post-analysis review by the way it feels. One week from now he still might not have put this thread out of its misery.

if you want a breathe...go to josephine discussion thread....very pleasant, easygoing discussion...and she may be regenerating!

Looks like Ike has now lifted onto a due west track, maybe even a degree or two above west looking at the sat.loops recently.

Any wobble from now on will make a big difference as to eventual track over Cuba.

Sure looks that way.

What is this now? 4 straight weeks we have been tracking?? Crazy!

[KWT]

jinftl, if only it worked that way but in this situation there is enough of a weakness that even if this does become a mess it should still get decently into the gukf.

As I said before look at the Galveston hurricane, exited Cuba as a TS, peaked in the gulf as a 150mph hurricane, so to think this can't strengthen to a major again, even if it is ruined by Cuba, would be a very foolish move!

[Sabanic]

Similar track as far as Cuba is concerned, and at exactly the same time of year.

Although conditions were initially very favorable for significant intensification, Frederic began to experience the outflow of Hurricane David (which had greatly intensified in the same area just days before). Subsequently, Frederic began a weakening trend early on September 2, when it weakened back to tropical storm status: this weakening trend would continue for several days as the storm followed in David's wake. Frederic passed over Puerto Rico and approached the Dominican Republic, then suddenly turned northwest during the afternoon of September 5 (just as David had done before): it passed just west of Santo Domingo on September 6. Further weakening caused Frederic to drop below tropical storm strength later on the 6th just north of Haiti.[1]

Continuing westward, Frederic crossed southeastern Cuba before paralleling the island's southern coast for the next four days. During this period, Frederic eventually escaped the unfavorable conditions left behind by David and regained tropical storm strength 100 miles (160 km) east of Cuba's Isle of Pines at about 0000 (GMT) on September 9. A turn towards the northwest followed, and Frederic became a hurricane once more near 1200 (GMT) on September 10, as it moved away from the western tip of Cuba. Frederic achieved this despite its center of circulation remaining close to land, probably because of sea surface temperatures of 29-30C and favorable upper-level conditions due to the presence of a large anticyclone at 200mb over the storm.[1][2]


Evacuations along the Gulf Coast.Frederic continued to intensify as it moved into the Gulf Of Mexico, reaching peak intensity on 1200 (GMT) on September 12: at this time, Frederic had maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 km/h) and a central pressure of 943 mb (HPa), making a Category 4 hurricane.[2][3]

Frederic weakened slightly before it made landfall on Dauphin Island, Alabama at 0300 (GMT) on September 13. Sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph, making Frederic a strong Category 3 hurricane at the time. The central pressure at the time was 946 mb. Landfall on the mainland occurred about an hour later near the Mississippi state line

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

AF307 left St Croix enroute to Ike a few minutes ago.

URNT15 KNHC 071606
AF307 0909A IKE HDOB 01 20080907

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103035&start=260

[jinftl]

such a lovely image though wasn't it...that and the memory of the good old days when storms approaching florida got turned out to sea by troughs....not pushed wsw by mutant highs!

back to the man of the day...week...month..

jinftl, if only it worked that way but in this situation there is enough of a weakness that even if this does become a mess it should still get decently into the gukf.

As I said before look at the Galveston hurricane, exited Cuba as a TS, peaked in the gulf as a 150mph hurricane, so to think this can't strengthen to a major again, even if it is ruined by Cuba, would be a very foolish move!

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS appears to be Texas bound!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[KWT]

Very impressive Hurakan though the western eyewall does seem to be a little on the weak side, though I suppose going over Great Inagua may have slightly delayed any strengthening that may be trying to occur.

I think Ike will be a very interesting storm in the gulf that will keep us all onm our toes, just how high can it go from when it bottoms out over Cuba possibly as a TS?

[gtalum]

..just how high can it go from when it bottoms out over Cuba possibly as a TS?

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 at the same time of year went from a TS just off Cuba to ~150 MPH in the Gulf. That's not to say Ike will do that, but clearly the potential is there in the hot waters of the Gulf if there is no shear.


This is not a professional forecast. Do not even consider it to be remotely accurate.

[jinftl]

reasonable enough...just not sure if ike will be heading with such a north component when he exits cuba...the current ridge is almost mutant in its hold and the nhc seems to buy the scenario where the trough doesn't pick ike up. i would think a more west motion than fred would be on tap...at least as he exits cuba and journeys out.

Similar track as far as Cuba is concerned, and at exactly the same time of year.

Although conditions were initially very favorable for significant intensification, Frederic began to experience the outflow of Hurricane David (which had greatly intensified in the same area just days before). Subsequently, Frederic began a weakening trend early on September 2, when it weakened back to tropical storm status: this weakening trend would continue for several days as the storm followed in David's wake. Frederic passed over Puerto Rico and approached the Dominican Republic, then suddenly turned northwest during the afternoon of September 5 (just as David had done before): it passed just west of Santo Domingo on September 6. Further weakening caused Frederic to drop below tropical storm strength later on the 6th just north of Haiti.[1]

Continuing westward, Frederic crossed southeastern Cuba before paralleling the island's southern coast for the next four days. During this period, Frederic eventually escaped the unfavorable conditions left behind by David and regained tropical storm strength 100 miles (160 km) east of Cuba's Isle of Pines at about 0000 (GMT) on September 9. A turn towards the northwest followed, and Frederic became a hurricane once more near 1200 (GMT) on September 10, as it moved away from the western tip of Cuba. Frederic achieved this despite its center of circulation remaining close to land, probably because of sea surface temperatures of 29-30C and favorable upper-level conditions due to the presence of a large anticyclone at 200mb over the storm.[1][2]


Evacuations along the Gulf Coast.Frederic continued to intensify as it moved into the Gulf Of Mexico, reaching peak intensity on 1200 (GMT) on September 12: at this time, Frederic had maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 km/h) and a central pressure of 943 mb (HPa), making a Category 4 hurricane.[2][3]

Frederic weakened slightly before it made landfall on Dauphin Island, Alabama at 0300 (GMT) on September 13. Sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph, making Frederic a strong Category 3 hurricane at the time. The central pressure at the time was 946 mb. Landfall on the mainland occurred about an hour later near the Mississippi state line

[Nexus]

Outflow seems to be improving on the north side, and Ike's southern eye wall is still hugging 21N, like it has for 15 hours now - aside from a few wobbles:

[ConvergenceZone]

Very impressive Hurakan though the western eyewall does seem to be a little on the weak side, though I suppose going over Great Inagua may have slightly delayed any strengthening that may be trying to occur.

I think Ike will be a very interesting storm in the gulf that will keep us all onm our toes, just how high can it go from when it bottoms out over Cuba possibly as a TS?

KWT, I think you may have nailed this one...Yesterday I wasn't convinced that it would go inland, but looks like you are right, I don't see this skimming the coastline at all, and yes, if it DOES remain over Cuba for 36+ hours, you are looking at a tropical storm or lower for sure. I don't see how there's just no way it can traverse that amount of land for almost 2 days and still remain a hurricane...We've seen wind speeds drop in canes quite quickly sometimes after every other advisory when they are going over land. The key is, will it still have an LLC once it emerges Cuba? or will it just be a convective mess which would make it much more tough to get itself back together. I agree with WXMAN that the NHC is going the route of caution due to the hurricane warnings out, so they probably making it stronger then it's going to be....We'll see what's left of it....

[jinftl]

And there is a slim to none chance tha the 144 hour model runs being bantered back and forth take into account that ike may emerge as a weak tropical storm. that could change everything as far as future plans....track, strength, timing.

Very impressive Hurakan though the western eyewall does seem to be a little on the weak side, though I suppose going over Great Inagua may have slightly delayed any strengthening that may be trying to occur.

I think Ike will be a very interesting storm in the gulf that will keep us all onm our toes, just how high can it go from when it bottoms out over Cuba possibly as a TS?

KWT, I think you may have nailed this one...Yesterday I wasn't convinced that it would go inland, but looks like you are right, I don't see this skimming the coastline at all, and yes, if it DOES remain over Cuba for 36+ hours, you are looking at a tropical storm or lower for sure. I don't see how there's just no way it can traverse that amount of land for almost 2 days and still remain a hurricane...We've seen wind speeds drop in canes quite quickly sometimes after every other advisory when they are going over land. The key is, will it still have an LLC once it emerges Cuba? or will it just be a convective mess which would make it much more tough to get itself back together. I agree with WXMAN that the NHC is going the route of caution due to the hurricane warnings out, so they probably making it stronger then it's going to be....We'll see what's left of it....

[KWT]

This will certainly keep a LLC, the land is fairly flat far the odd 300ft peak here and there over Cuba CZ. The thing to watch for is a 24hrs reorganisation off Cuba then some deepening probably rapid.

Still looks like its on course for it to go inland pretty close to Banes, probably to the ENE of thier location.

motion looks pretty much due west now.

[KWT]

I think Ike will be a very interesting storm in the gulf that will keep us all onm our toes,

You are very far in Great Britain so your toes will not be kept .

hehe well yeah ok good point, my virtual toes!

Look for a little bit of reorganisation now the eye is exiting from Grand Inagua again, probably not much but maybe a slight strengthening of the western eyewall again.