Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Category 5]

IMD warned 90 kts. A Burmese man on the BBC says they were warned for 40-45 mph winds. This has nothing to do with the IMD, as proven.

That makes me ill.

[zaqxsw75050]

i just wondering, could the forecast track have the do with the wind speed they warned? because i remember JTWC and IMD call for turn to the northeast and landfall much further north but that obviously never happened.

[StormspinnerD2]

IMD warned 90 kts. A Burmese man on the BBC says they were warned for 40-45 mph winds. This has nothing to do with the IMD, as proven.

In this case, I would say the Myanmar Meteorological Department (and by extension, the junta) is at fault. IMD told them to expect 90 kt winds; MMD actually warned for less than half that. I imagine it's fairly difficult for 35 kt winds to cause tidal surges of 4-5 m that far inland.

[Derek Ortt]

IMD never said 90KT until about 6 hours before landfall. You cannot evacuate the delta in 6 hours. Before that, they were saying 75-80KT. Using a standard inland decay model would have yielded 40-45 mph for Rangoon (yes, I know a standard inland decay model is not applicable due to the swampy coastline).

That and the track forecast from all models was quite poor also likely contributed to the underwarning.

[Derek Ortt]

IMD never said 90KT until about 6 hours before landfall. You cannot evacuate the delta in 6 hours. Before that, they were saying 75-80KT. Using a standard inland decay model would have yielded 40-45 mph for Rangoon (yes, I know a standard inland decay model is not applicable due to the swampy coastline).

That and the track forecast from all models was quite poor also likely contributed to the underwarning. NOBODY saw this hitting the Delta until about 12-18 hours before landfall. The lack of transportation makes it impossible to do a massive evacuation in that amount of time.

What this argues for is the need for the G-IV synoptic surveillance flights in this region to better the track forecasts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is very tragic.

[HURAKAN]

I think this disaster was a combination of bad forecasting, a very poor country, very intense cyclone, slow movement, greatest impact in the most populated part of the country. We can't point the finger at one factor and say that was the problem. Even if IDM had made a perfect forecast, the government of Myanmar wouldn't have been able to evacuate millions of people that were in harms way. Moreover, most people in poor countries that doesn't have the support of the government in case of disaster find it very hard to leave the very little that they own and evacuate.

[MiamiensisWx]

I honestly think another factor is a possible concentric eyewall structure and outer wind maxima at landfall. Remember that the unfortunately high death tolls in this region often occur when a large tropical cyclone affects the low-lying delta regions. It does not take a particularly intense tropical cyclone or very strong winds to cause extreme damage and deaths, although I despise the junta (and the whole miasma of detrimental politics in Burma) for spreading extreme misinformation. Additionally, I believe the offshore depths feature a shelf that is relatively similar to the Gulf Coast. As mentioned by CaribPR in another thread, this factor combines with the poverty and removal of coastal vegetation (i.e. protective mangroves) for human uses. The country is so poor and restricted that the people often tend to exploit the scarce resources at hand, which were likely already depleted by the government or other sources. Additionally, many of the mangroves have been already destroyed by the 2004 tsunami, and they are only gradually recovering in some areas at the time of this cyclone, and the recovery is dependent on whether the remaining intact areas are removed by people. The fact that Burma's primary rice crops and associated small villages are found along the delta contributes to significant humanitarian issues after a storm's passage.

In my view, although I often disagree quite strongly with the IMD, I don't think they deserve the entire blame in this case because of the aforementioned reasons above and within other posts. Their biggest mistake was the fact that they likely initially underestimated the cyclone's intensity very early in the somber "game". The cyclone likely "maxed out" several hours prior to landfall, though it maintained its intensity nearly to the time of landfall. In other words, it is correct that the TC was initially severely underforecast by the IMD, but we can't blame them for the blockage of information (regardless of the IMD's timing) by the junta and political messes in Burma.

I hate to make this statement, but when I watched the TC make landfall, I knew we were going to see numerous deaths, although I did not dare to guess the total. Any death is tragic. I only hoped that it would be as low as possible for the region. Tragedies will continue to happen in these Bay of Bengal fringing countries until warnings are effectively released by the regional governments; more substantial construction is utilized; and people are allowed the freedom to take personal responsibility and preparedness into their hands like many people after Katrina. If these repressive regimes and groups continue unabated, it does far more harm than good, and it effectively forces people to rely on the abusive government. In essence, they are never afforded the opportunity for personal responsibility.

[MiamiensisWx]

See my post for my thorough thoughts on the situation.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1705873#p1705873

It's a combination of multiple factors, many of which have not been mentioned with the exception of CaribPR's post and others.

Here is the post for brevity:

"I honestly think another factor is a possible concentric eyewall structure and outer wind maxima at landfall. Remember that the unfortunately high death tolls in this region often occur when a large tropical cyclone affects the low-lying delta regions. It does not take a particularly intense tropical cyclone or very strong winds to cause extreme damage and deaths, although I despise the junta (and the whole miasma of detrimental politics in Burma) for spreading extreme misinformation. Additionally, I believe the offshore depths feature a shelf that is relatively similar to the Gulf Coast. As mentioned by CaribPR in another thread, this factor combines with the poverty and removal of coastal vegetation (i.e. protective mangroves) for human uses. The country is so poor and restricted that the people often tend to exploit the scarce resources at hand, which were likely already depleted by the government or other sources. Additionally, many of the mangroves have been already destroyed by the 2004 tsunami, and they are only gradually recovering in some areas at the time of this cyclone, and the recovery is dependent on whether the remaining intact areas are removed by people. The fact that Burma's primary rice crops and associated small villages are found along the delta contributes to significant humanitarian issues after a storm's passage.

In my view, although I often disagree quite strongly with the IMD, I don't think they deserve the entire blame in this case because of the aforementioned reasons above and within other posts. Their biggest mistake was the fact that they likely initially underestimated the cyclone's intensity very early in the somber "game". The cyclone likely "maxed out" several hours prior to landfall, though it maintained its intensity nearly to the time of landfall. In other words, it is correct that the TC was initially severely underforecast by the IMD, but we can't blame them for the blockage of information (regardless of the IMD's timing) by the junta and political messes in Burma.

I hate to make this statement, but when I watched the TC make landfall, I knew we were going to see numerous deaths, although I did not dare to guess the total. Any death is tragic. I only hoped that it would be as low as possible for the region. Tragedies will continue to happen in these Bay of Bengal fringing countries until warnings are effectively released by the regional governments; more substantial construction is utilized; and people are allowed the freedom to take personal responsibility and preparedness into their hands like many people after Katrina. If these repressive regimes and groups continue unabated, it does far more harm than good, and it effectively forces people to rely on the abusive government. In essence, they are never afforded the opportunity for personal responsibility."

[Chacor]

Relief aid either offered or already taken:

# US: US$3.25 million

# European Union: US$3 million.

# Canada: C$2 million

# Norway: 10 million krone

# Germany: 500,000 euros for German aid groups to provide shelter, drinking water, household utensils and mosquito nets.

# Indonesia: US$1 million.

# China: US$1 million in cash and relief supplies.

# Thailand: US$100,000 and airlifts of more than US$400,000 worth of food, water, medical supplies.

# Japan: 28 million yen (S$370,000), including tents, electric power generators and other emergency goods.

# Singapore: US$200,000 in an assistance package that includes medical supplies, drinking water, water-purifying tablets, tents, groundsheets, blankets, sleeping bags and emergency food.

# South Korea: Emergency aid materials worth US$100,000.

# India: Dispatched two naval ships loaded with relief supplies such as food items, tents, blankets, clothing, medicine and meals.

# Bangladesh: Medicine and clothes.

[Windspeed]

Estimated total population living within flood-affected areas, Myanmar, using flood analysis with MODIS Terra & Aqua Data recorded 5 May 2008; and LandScan 2005:

06_05_08_Unosat _Myanmar.pdf

[Chacor]

BOGALAY, Myanmar (CNN) -- Homeless children watched Tuesday as solemn men unceremoniously dropped dead bodies into the river of this southern Myanmar township.

CNN's Dan Rivers was the first Western journalist to visit Bogalay and see the devastation.

The funeral-like procession to the river was one of the many disturbing images of the destruction left by Myanmar's deadly cyclone.

The cyclone's devastation could be seen everywhere in Bogalay. The estimated 240 km/hr (150mph) winds spared only four of the 369 homes in a village here.

The nationwide death toll was estimated by state run media and opposition sources at more than 22,000.

Almost half of the total death toll could have come from Bogalay, according to an estimate by China's state run news agency Xinhua. Many of the survivors have been left with nothing.

They sat in roofless homes, parasols their only protection from the rain that continued to fall.

One family who sat in the remains of their home -- shreds of the roof and walls littered the floor -- said they only had enough food to last a couple of days. We could see their meager supply of eggs and rice.

New supplies will be hard to come by after the storm destroyed the area's mills, leaving only about a five-day supply of usable rice, locals said. Water pumps were also ruined, and fuel is scarce.

Monasteries were being used as temporary shelters for hundreds of people left homeless. At one there were about 600 people sleeping where they could.

Many had lost someone they loved. Some sat with bleak, numb stares as small piles of food were guarded by young apprentice monks.

The monks said they have food for two days. After that, they say, they have no answer.

Another monastery was called an operating theater, but there were no medical supplies. One man sat with open wounds, blood running down his back.

Members of the military could be seen all over Bogalay on Tuesday, some trying to cut through fallen trees.

International aid groups are waiting for the Myanmar government's approval to enter the country.

But the worry here in Bogalay, south of the former capital Yangon, was how relief workers would be able to cross the difficult tropical terrain to reach victims.

The journey to the town is very difficult -- crisscrossed by rivers and lush patches of trees. It is punctuated by few roads, many which are clogged by debris.

International disaster experts have warned that a lack of water and food could lead to a health-related crisis; they want aid to get in as fast as possible.

Also, there is concern that areas to the south of Bogalay could have suffered even more because they are low delta lands that were hit first.

Meanwhile, Bogalay's survivors wait and try to put the pieces of their lives back together.

http://us.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/05 ... index.html

[HurricaneBill]

Some photostreams on Flickr:

Yangon - Nargis Cyclone

Cyclone Nargis

[Ixolib]

...The same thing would have happened had Katrina not been severely sheared at the time of landfall

Doubtful. Structures at and to the east of Katrina's landfall were (are) significantly stronger than those on the Myanmar delta. But surge will ALWAYS kill more and destroy more than wind, regardless of where landfall takes place.

Comparing a landfalling major on a US coastline with that of a landfallilng major on a third-world coastline is apples and oranges.

[Derek Ortt]

I meant to the west in New Orleans

Winds would have been in the cat 2/3 instead of upper TS/lower cat 1. The residents would not have been able to take shelter in their attacs as the roofs would have blown off

[angelwing]

Just seen this come thru:

Breaking News (CNN)The death toll in Myanmar may reach 100,000 according to a U.S. diplomat.

[Windspeed]

Cyclone death toll jumps to 100,000
The death toll from the cyclone that ravaged Myanmar may exceed 100,000, the U.S. Charge D'Affaires in Yangon said today. "The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths," Shari Villarosa said.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/05/07/myanmar.aidcyclone/index.html

[Duddy]

Over 100,000 dead in the delta region alone.

Wouldn't this be the deadliest cyclone in recorded history?

[Duddy]

What they are basically seeing when they get to each village/town is that everyone is dead.

[RL3AO]

Over 100,000 dead in the delta region alone.

Wouldn't this be the deadliest cyclone in recorded history?

No. The Bhola Cyclone in 1970 killed up to 500,000. 100,000 would put it number 8 on the list.