ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[msbee]

more St maarten web cams
these are all from pelican resort which is on the south west side of st. maarten

http://www.pelicanresort.com/webcam.asp
http://www.royalcreative.com/webcam/camarapelican3.jpg
http://www.royalcreative.com/webcam/camarapelican4.jpg
http://www.royalcreative.com/webcam/camarapelican2.jpg
http://www.royalcreative.com/webcam/camarapelican1.jpg

[caribepr]

It looks like Omar is moving NNE not NE on the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It looks like PR might get more weather than they bargained for.

Do you agree with that, Luis?

[HURAKAN]

11 AM: 85 mph

Repeating the 1100 am AST position...15.2 N...67.2 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85 mph.
Minimum central pressure...982 mb.

[Sanibel]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


We're lucky that giant ULL and HIGH have suppressed a monsoon trough in the Caribbean that hatched two systems the stronger of which is a wrongway storm going away from Florida.

The center is right on NHC track just east of St Croix. This is a fortunate track because the worst should transit the Anegada Passage, an island-less gap between the Leewards and Virgins. St Croix should get a good west side hit.

Anguilla and St Martin should take the brunt of this if it stays on NHC track.

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

Shift Left!


Thanks for the disclaimer because the official track is now more left and over the Virgins. I was right about the eyehole being left before.

Hey you in the Virgins. Take this seriously and go to storm preparations.

Hard side on St Croix now.


bvigal: Get ready! Intensifying category 2 right over the top of you now!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

The movements from now on will be very important in terms of Puerto Rico getting more tropical storm force winds or even hurricane winds in the form of gusts.From 5 AM to the 11 AM advisory the direction changed from 50 degrees to 45 degrees.

[baitism]

All that try air headed towards Omar should keep Puerto Rico from getting enormous amounts of rainfall.

[Sanibel]

The eye is apparent on Puerto Rican long range radar. Movement is on new track towards Virgins.


Think I see a moderate "fist" on visible.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The eye is apparent on Puerto Rican long range radar. Movement is on new track towards Virgins.


Think I see a moderate "fist" on visible.

[Gustywind]

St Marteen is on red alert at 11 am, for more info go to : viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103576&hilit=&start=140

[Sanibel]

Possible dry air wedge on south quadrant.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 14:24 GMT le 15 octobre 2008 — Last Comment: 16:19 GMT le 15 octobre 2008
Virgin Islands brace for Hurricane Omar

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:21 AM EDT on October 15, 2008

Hurricane Omar is on the move, headed for an encounter with the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles late tonight and early Thursday morning. Omar is passing very close to Buoy 42059, which measured sustained winds of 58 mph gusting to 72, and 17 foot waves, at 8:50 am EDT. The storm continues to pound the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have been observed over the past three days in these islands, and Netherlands Antilles radar shows that more rain is on the way from Omar's southern spiral band. Rain will be ending early this evening in the ABC Islands, and no significant flooding or damage is likely there.

The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 7:30 am EDT found that the pressure has remained nearly constant since yesterday afternoon, 984 mb. The 35-mile diameter eyewall had a gap in it on the south side, and it is apparent that Omar is still struggling with wind shear. Shear was analyzed at 20 knots this morning, which is on the high side of where hurricanes are still able to intensify. Satellite loops show that low level spiral bands and upper level outflow are not present on Omar's west side, due to strong upper level winds from the west creating wind shear on that side of the storm. Outflow and spiral banding are impressive on the other three sides of the storm. A hint of an eye is apparent on visible satellite images. The eye of Omar is now visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico, and this will be a good way to track the storm until the next Hurricane Hunter flight arrives at 2 pm EDT this afternoon.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Omar.

The forecast for Omar
The models are tightly clustered along a path that would take Omar through the Virgin Islands late tonight. However, the east coast of Puerto Rico and the islands farther east, such as St. Martin/St. Maartin and Anguilla, are still in the cone of uncertainty, and could get a direct hit. Our main intensity models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS--all forecast that Omar will be a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75-85 mph as it passes through the islands. Wind shear is expected to be in the moderate to high range, 15-25 knots, over the next two days, which should allow some modest intensification. I give Omar a 30% chance of reaching Category 2 strength before landfall early Thursday morning, and a 10% chance of being a major Category 3 hurricane.

Omar's storm surge
Wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from Omar. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. Since Omar is expected to be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane, maximum storm surge heights of 1-2 feet are expected in the Virgin Islands. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structures due to high battering waves.

[tolakram]

What looks to be a big outflow boundary is flying off the NW quadrant and convection is warming markedly.

Can an expert comment on what might be happening at the moment?

[fci]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


We're lucky that giant ULL and HIGH have suppressed a monsoon trough in the Caribbean that hatched two systems the stronger of which is a wrongway storm going away from Florida.

The center is right on NHC track just east of St Croix. This is a fortunate track because the worst should transit the Anegada Passage, an island-less gap between the Leewards and Virgins. St Croix should get a good west side hit.

Anguilla and St Martin should take the brunt of this if it stays on NHC track.

Latest "How close can it get" has the center only 12 miles from St Johns (EJW), 84 miles from St Maarten (msbee), 40 from Culebra (MJ) and 82.5 from Luis in San Juan.

Good luck to all of you, hope it blows through quickly.
Our prayers are with you all.

[Sanibel]

Double eyewall on radar.

[HURAKAN]

[caribepr]

5.7 from bvigal as well...I think she 'wins' for now. I'm sure there are other lurkers in the danger zone also. None of these islands are that far apart, really. It's going to be a long night. Thank you, fci. It's going to be a long night.

Just got the gennie hooked up and ready to roar. Good thing Kelli and Dale are going to be gone a couple more weeks, I've torn this place up!

[FireBird]

Well said fci.
I hope my fellow islanders and S2K members will have already put the necessary arrangements in place. We are happy to hear from you as to your experiences, but please keep safety first. Take good care.

[Sanibel]

Hazy look to CDO. Watch out for -possible- intensification.


And fci please quote me accurately because I corrected over bvi over and hour and a half ago.