ATL: IKE Discussion

[BigB0882]

After tracking Gustav for what seemed like a month and a half, I don't know if I have the energy to follow this one! I have no choice, I was/am so thankful I had all my gasoline and groceries 2/3 days before anyone else even thought of it. I will do the same for Ike if I have to. I am hoping Cuba eats it to shreds.

[tallywx]

Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (David, Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)

[wxman57]

Looks like Ike has now lifted onto a due west track, maybe even a degree or two above west looking at the sat.loops recently.

Any wobble from now on will make a big difference as to eventual track over Cuba.

3hr motion from 1345Z-1645Z toward 263 deg at 11.9 kts.

[cpdaman]

I'm starting to think the eye is clearing out somewhat on the Sat.imagery at the moment as the eye emerges onto some pretty favorable waters, this will be Ike's best chance to restrengthen for the next 2 days probably.

i agree , ike is getting into a spot where he will have the most open waters that he shall see in days

the one thing i question is wether the land interaction with cuba while nearing the base of the high will allow a more of a stair stepping wnw motion along the coast for awhile (starting when he gets to 75 W or so, could have implications for key west (the amount of land interaction)

although a continuation of a due west motion for two days could take him out to the NW caribean just west of central cuba i.e 21.5 /78.5

[curtadams]

Yep indeed though there is a chance that its inner core will be a real mess by the time it leaves land and if thats the case it will probably take a good 24hrs at least I'd guess to sort itself out but when it does sort itself out conditions look good enough for strengthening back towards major status I's imagine.

Unfortunately the models have it dawdling over the GOM. The 6Z GFS has Ike out over the gulf almost 4 days.

[haml8]

When Ike hits Cuba, that will weaken it (hello capatin obvious ... but that will also change the steering layer right? In the past I heard that a stronger storm MIGHT be prone to plow more west so is is safe to assume that a weaker storm may go more east once it weakens and that will eventually change things... Just talking out loud here...

[wxman57]

Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)

It'll take quite a while for Ike to regain strength once it's wind field expands (like Wilma's did). But Ike will have 3-4 days over the Gulf to regain strength, more time than most hurricanes would.

[tigergirl]

After tracking Gustav for what seemed like a month and a half, I don't know if I have the energy to follow this one! I have no choice, I was/am so thankful I had all my gasoline and groceries 2/3 days before anyone else even thought of it. I will do the same for Ike if I have to. I am hoping Cuba eats it to shreds.

I agree!!! We returned home Friday night. However, I'm still packed and ready to go if needed!

[ak8s]

I'm not going for gloom and doom here, but I have a question about New Orleans. Have the water levels returned to normal around the levees or will even a minimal hurricane/TS cause the water to go over them? I guess my question is how long does it take for the water to receed from a previous tropical event? I'm not from there so I really have no idea.

[KWT]

3hr motion from 1345Z-1645Z toward 263 deg at 11.9 kts.

Longer term motion is still south of west then thats fair enough thanks!

As you say its going to have plenty of time to redevelop its inner core though its very much got time on its side, I'd imagine you'd be looking at least at 24hrs to regain any inner core then another 12-24hrs to wind itself back up into a state where it could really strengthen I suppose?

[cape_escape]

I saw something on TWC that showed a possibility of Ike recurving before fl. Could it turn more east after it comes off Cuba, is there anything in troughs that would prevent Ike from continuing its west track?

I think the high pressure dome that has pushed Ike to where it is has proven itself. The models were fairly accurate in the last Gulf hurricane, so if this does bend back towards west Florida my guess is it would be at least 175 miles offshore. Slow movers often have the synoptic change over them. But no chance of a curve east of Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

No possibility of another Charley scenerio?

What kind of weather could we expect here if it stays 175 miles off our coast you think?

[Sanibel]

They always say weaker systems get steered at the lower level. So if a stronger system is attracted to a trough at the upper levels a weaker system should miss that and go more west not east.

[Frank2]

What kind of weather could we expect here if it stays 175 miles off our coast you think?

Probably about the same as when Gustav went by - cloudy and breezy with passing light to moderate showers - not bad, considering...

It's a full 5 degrees south of South (or Southwest) Florida at this time, so, if it stays even 3 or 4 degrees south of us as it goes by, that's pretty far away...

Frank

[cape_escape]

Probably about the same as when Gustav went by - cloudy and breezy with passing light to moderate showers - not bad, considering...

That I can handle Thank you Frank2!

[Sabanic]

Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (David, Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)

Frederic 1979

[KWT]

The other thing that the models and wxman57 has been mentioning is the is the fact that Ike will loosen up and expand quite a lot, this will likely end up as a pretty chunky hurricane and thus a large area will need to watch the system.

Whilst it'll take a while to regain its strength, with Ike likely being a big hurricane when it does regain its strength somewhat its going to be even more dangerous I fear.

I highly doubt Frederic 1979 had much of an inner core, as wxman57 system stated Wilma did get pretty beaten up over the Yucatan.

[Frank2]

Incidentially, not all hurricanes that enter the Gulf of Mexico are a sure thing when it comes to making landfall - Hurricane Henri (1979) taught everyone a good lesson when it comes to never saying never:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Henri_1979_track.png

[mpic]

What determines how far out from the eye the rains/winds are still felt? Reason I ask is regarding the question about how long it takes for the water to go back to normal in NOLA. Even if the eye doesn't go there, wondering how much rain they can expect in relation to LF. More reason to watch the cone?

[Sanibel]

No possibility of another Charley scenerio?

What kind of weather could we expect here if it stays 175 miles off our coast you think?

I doubt, with this model consensus, that Ike will turn towards SW Florida. Ike is sort of like Katrina where the original track kept getting pushed west by an ever-expanding High over the Gulf. Or maybe even Rita if the High holds strong enough. Best to wait until it re-emerges from Cuba.

If we get a 175 mile pass to the SW it should be like Dennis that passed at the same distance. Maybe 30-45mph winds at the beach. Ike has a good east rainy side so we should get some rains too.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KWT]

Looking at the current motion looks like a fairly major town is going to get hit by the eyewall, Banes Cuba has around 81,000 and if they have'nt got out of there are going to probably get hit by Ike's eyewall...don't even want to think about that!