ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ronjon]

Cuban RAD seems to show a circulation around 20N-85W - although it could be at mid-levels at this distance from the site.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[Air Force Met]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

[Wx_Warrior]

Different storm, different entrance into the GOM, different dynamics. No comparison.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, I was being sarcastic with the 99% REMARK, LOL. Anyways, I wish there was some way we could view night time vis. Depending on IR at night sucks.

[ColdFusion]

Different storm, different entrance into the GOM, different dynamics. No comparison.

It doesnt change the fact that the ridge is in place.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

I believe the new LLC is still developing and reforming under the strongest convection - it merely needs some time.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

I believe the new LLC is still developing and reforming under the strongest convection - it merely needs some time.

[Derek Ortt]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

I think thats the mid level shear getting to Dolly (not a center relocation as some are hypothesizing)

I wouldn't expect this mid level shear last for more than a few hours. However, until then, we have an Erin structured TS

[Sanibel]

19.7N-84.7W


Should clip a corner of Yucatan and weaken slightly before rebounding in Gulf.


Yucatan crossers can be squirrely after they enter the GOM.

East winds are probably strong July tropical flow in Caribbean.

[Steve]

>>Mid Texas coast is my best guess right now...

Interesting. I've been out of town and wasn't paying any attention until I woke up today. I liked the Tamps-lower Texas ideas if the earlier llc had held and the speeed continued at 17+/-. Currently moving NW (305+/-ish, true NW being 317.5 I think) around 13. Doesn't seem out there, that's for sure.

>>I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

The mass of convection off to the NE might miss it. I don't know if the center will or not. Looked like it was headed for Cozumel prior to the switch from the visibles to the ir.

of course.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Could the shear be weakening Dolly back to an open wave?

[Ivanhater]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Yeah AFM...I was trying to post earlier when I saw the SW winds from recon where the center was supposed to be, but then of course the server went down..lol...This is a classic example of a center relocation which should happen tonight, especially with the strong MLC and the convection moving towards it...

[Derek Ortt]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

[ROCK]

>>Mid Texas coast is my best guess right now...

Interesting. I've been out of town and wasn't paying any attention until I woke up today. I liked the Tamps-lower Texas ideas if the earlier llc had held and the speeed continued at 17+/-. Currently moving NW (305+/-ish, true NW being 317.5 I think) around 13. Doesn't seem out there, that's for sure.

>>I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

The mass of convection off to the NE might miss it. I don't know if the center will or not. Looked like it was headed for Cozumel prior to the switch from the visibles to the ir.

of course.

Steve

I agree with you Steve....this time... Weak LLC not as tight, reformation towards deepest convection. Makes sense to me....

[fci]

Shouldn't 94L be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by now?
What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane?

I was wondering this too. But then I realized its just not going to have enough time and its still fighting off a ULL. At the most a Cat 2 or strong Cat 1. Thats it. The energy just isnt there to blow this up into a Cat 4. If Im wrong ill post Goatse and ban myself from this forum.

Don't ban yourself just get rid of that annoying avatar!

In fact, even if you are right, you should get rid of the annoying avatar!

[Steve]

>>19.7N-84.7W

Vortex data or what? It was listed as 19.3/85.5 on the 8pm advisory. If that's the case, the center is relocated a degree point 2 further east and 4/10ths of a degree further north.

Steve

[njweather]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Hmm, so is the center relocating, as some have suggested, or is the mid level shear taking its toll on the system? A relocating center will undoubtedly change NHC's cone...

I imagine the 11pm discussion will address this!

[ColdFusion]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

Worth repeating.

[curtadams]

Looks like the ULL is pretty much gone. Dolly has filled it in. Impressive.

I'll do my part to protect TX by saying the current convective outburst is very strong and should strengthen her to a hurricane rapidly. Given my recent track record, that should keep her nice and weak.

HouTxMetro: IR2 used to be pretty good as night visible but the false color changes have made is almost worthless (low clouds used to be white on black - now they're light medium gray on medium light gray ) But - you can still see the old colors on the area loops, so try out the Gulf of Mexico loop.

[artist]

Im in Houston, I'll be praying for our fellow Texans to the South.

what you are forgetting is the cone is still 5 days out. Having been through more than I ever wanted, it is best to be prepared even if you are just outside the cone, particularly 5 days out. You don't want to go looking for water, batteries, gas, etc. when it is only 3 days away even. You will have a hard time getting it. And if you need plywood rather than having shutters, you definately will be hard pressed to get enough or even any at all. I have a neighbor that each time here in south Florida plays the russian roulette game as they don't have shutters and can never get enough for their windows. It is much better to b esafe than sorry. I know. The first one that hit us we weren't prepared even though we thought we were. There was no gas to be found for days, no electricity for a couple of weeks. No food but what we had and we had to drink sodas as we had not gotten nearly enough water and with the heat, you need water or gatorade. We didn't even have a grill so we couldn't cook other than with my husbands blow torch! Made very interesting eggs and toast though!
Just plan now for the just in case. Extra gas, water, food, etc. All things that you can use up anyway if you don't get hit.