ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[deltadog03]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Good points!!! Thats why I think since we clearly have a very potent MLC that should be enough for the LLC to tuck under or reform under.

[Air Force Met]

I believe the new LLC is still developing and reforming under the strongest convection - it merely needs some time.

Recon showing another weak LLC or vortex near 18.25N 86.02W

Looking at the last hi-res loops of the day you can see it. Just another clear indication that the LLC should tuck under the CDO later this evening....and it might miss the YukPen or barely clip it if it does it in time.

[ROCK]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

trust me we take you advice and look at your data. But what we are seeing is something different I suppose. Maybe its hits the YUC but it wont be by much IMO.

Lets not forget Ernesto that was to never hit FL....or Chris which was coming to Texas before decaptitation........just some examples.....

[Sanibel]

I'll trust the reconnaissance center. The fix I gave is probably mid-level on the shortwave.

I agree with Derek. No relocation. No Yucatan miss.

[Viper54r]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

Yeah, good idea...according to you this thing was going to slam Honduras.

[HouTXmetro]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

Worth repeating.

Not that I'm challenging any of the pro-mets (I agree with with them), but I remember one storm a few years back where a MAJORITY on this board were wrong. So it's not unprecedented.

[wxman57]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Watch for the LLC to dissipate over the Yucatan and reform to the north beneath the MLC tonight. I don't know if that'll affect the track in the long run, but it could mean a little bit more north at the end. Maybe between BRO-CRP.

[Ivanhater]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

Yeah, good idea...according to you this thing was going to slam Honduras.

Whoa..Derek never said that, he mentioned the possibility, nothing more

[Rainband]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

[Ivanhater]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Watch for the LLC to dissipate over the Yucatan and reform to the north beneath the MLC tonight. I don't know if that'll affect the track in the long run, but it could mean a little bit more north at the end. Maybe between BRO-CRP.

Wxman and Ivanhater agreeing...never thought Id see the day!

[Pearl River]

Derek Ortt wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel


This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?


Worth repeating.

Please don't take this as any disrespect to the Pro Mets, but y'all haven't been 100% either, and, not all are in agreement, from everything I have read. Someone will have the opportunity to say" See, I told you so".

[mattpetre]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

Worth repeating.

Looking at the last hi-res loops of the day you can see it. Just another clear indication that the LLC should tuck under the CDO later this evening....and it might miss the YukPen or barely clip it if it does it in time. -- AFM

... worth repeating also.

[ColdFusion]

Regardless of the "hit the Yucatan", "miss the Yucatan", as wxman57 has pointed out, it wont change the final destination by much. Still likely a South TX/North MX storm thanks to the ridge in place to the north.

[Viper54r]

I believe the new LLC is still developing and reforming under the strongest convection - it merely needs some time.

Recon showing another weak LLC or vortex near 18.25N 86.02W

Looking at the last hi-res loops of the day you can see it. Just another clear indication that the LLC should tuck under the CDO later this evening....and it might miss the YukPen or barely clip it if it does it in time.

Documented

[wxman57]

Well, I have to get up at 4am so I can be at the office by 5. It's interesting that 24 hours ago many here didn't think old 94L would clear Honduras. Now the convection is skirting the northern Yucatan.

Quite a busy September day in the tropics...

[deltadog03]

I will be the first one to admit that I Am far from perfect. You h ave to remember a lot of us mets might have acess to certain products that helps us make our forecast and we try our best to provide to yall. I will also admit this girl has been one crazy storm so far, but I think most mets on here can agree that a new pronounced LLC should come either under or redevelop under that strong MLC. We will have to wait until midday tomorrow to see if that has any implications down the line.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed CF...

[mattpetre]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

This is hitting the Yucatan

why are some here so quick to ignore all of the pro mets?

I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

So when a pro met says they believe a storm is going to rapidly intensify are they too wishing for disaster? Of course not. This storm has no feelings and understands nothing of the psychology of -removed-. Wait and see, I too believe it's about to skirt just past the land of the Yucatan.

[HouTXmetro]

Very strange obs coming from recon...

001900 1839N 08605W 8417 01592 0097 +181 +166 097008 009 999 999 03

Winds out of the east at 8 kts all the way down to 18.6N...and even at 19N 85.7 they are out of the ESE.

We have a real weak LLC right now.

Watch for the LLC to dissipate over the Yucatan and reform to the north beneath the MLC tonight. I don't know if that'll affect the track in the long run, but it could mean a little bit more north at the end. Maybe between BRO-CRP.

Let's say the LLC barley clips the Yuc or completly misses it as you stated is not out of the realm of possibility. Wouldn't a stronger Dolly want to push more poleward?

[wxman57]

Oh, and one more tip before bed. Follow the convection, not the weak LLC.