ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[LAwxrgal]

Well, I have to get up at 4am so I can be at the office by 5. It's interesting that 24 hours ago many here didn't think old 94L would clear Honduras. Now the convection is skirting the northern Yucatan.

Quite a busy September day in the tropics...

Um, Wxman, it's not September. I might have to wake you up when September gets here at this rate.

[Pearl River]

wxman57 wrote:

Well, I have to get up at 4am so I can be at the office by 5. It's interesting that 24 hours ago many here didn't think old 94L would clear Honduras. Now the convection is skirting the northern Yucatan.

Quite a busy September day in the tropics...

Aw man, I missed the Olympics.

[mattpetre]

Well, I have to get up at 4am so I can be at the office by 5. It's interesting that 24 hours ago many here didn't think old 94L would clear Honduras. Now the convection is skirting the northern Yucatan.

Quite a busy September day in the tropics...

Many of us, including myself; thought this storm was dying more than once. It just goes to show us all that ego definately has no bearing on a storms outcome and sometimes even knowledge (that which we currently have at least) is just not enough to know.

[wxman57]

Let's say the LLC barley clips the Yuc or completly misses it as you stated is not out of the realm of possibility. Wouldn't a stronger Dolly want to push more poleward?

Check my post of the mean wind flow aloft a page or two back. There is a strong ridge to the north, so a center repositioning won't change much. It'll just start from a little farther north a position. May even track more westerly for a bit.

[Nederlander]

no disrespect to the pro mets here either... but nobody should get their panties in a wad just because someone doesnt agree with you... I have a valid opinion just like everyone else on here... and thats all it is, an opinion... logically, being a pro at this, you will probably be able to forecast or as i like to call it (guess) better than me most of the time... but mets can be wrong, and usually are when it comes to forecasting tropical systems...

[Air Force Met]

I believe the new LLC is still developing and reforming under the strongest convection - it merely needs some time.

Recon showing another weak LLC or vortex near 18.25N 86.02W

Looking at the last hi-res loops of the day you can see it. Just another clear indication that the LLC should tuck under the CDO later this evening....and it might miss the YukPen or barely clip it if it does it in time.

Documented

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

[Steve]

>>I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

I used to be in that number. I go way back to Camille but I enjoyed Cindy and Dennis in 2005. Then disaster struck. You get a new appreciation when you are throwing out you life's history to the side of the curb. If you're lucky like I was, you might have had a few things to salvage. If you were like Frank P [tm] in Biloxi, you were lucky to find a kitchen floor tile within a few blocks of your home. So let people get excited, let them cheer "Bring it on!!!!" Once it is on, they will know.



Steve

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

its on the west side of buoy 42056...nice south wind now.

[jeff]

State of Texas activation will begin at 800am Monday AM.

H-72 was at 700pm
H-36 at 700am Tuesday
H-0 is set for 700pm Wed.

Evacaution and fuel teams being preped Monday for S TX.

All 34 agencies in state Hurricane Response Plan will fully activate at 800am Tuesday.

We are going to be cutting it very close if mass evac is needed for the valley. Requires at least 1300 busses for special needs.

Lots of desicions coming on Monday. That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

20/2345 UTC 20.2N 84.7W T2.5/2.5 DOLLY -- Atlantic Ocean

20/2345 UTC 34.9N 75.4W T2.5/2.5 CRISTOBAL -- Atlantic Ocean

Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

[srainhoutx]

Chris, Derek. DD, and AFM et al... thanks for your input.

[Nederlander]

>>I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

I used to be in that number. I go way back to Camille but I enjoyed Cindy and Dennis in 2005. Then disaster struck. You get a new appreciation when you are throwing out you life's history to the side of the curb. If you're lucky like I was, you might have had a few things to salvage. If you were like Frank P [tm] in Biloxi, you were lucky to find a kitchen floor tile within a few blocks of your home. So let people get excited, let them cheer "Bring it on!!!!" Once it is on, they will know.



Steve

I would hate to think that people are wishing this thing to become a monster disaster... I went through Rita, and that sucked big time.. so why accuse people of wishing for this?

[Steve]

>>20.2N 84.7W Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Regardless of the impact on the final destination, that's a significant deviation IMHO.

Steve

[mattpetre]

Recon showing another weak LLC or vortex near 18.25N 86.02W

Looking at the last hi-res loops of the day you can see it. Just another clear indication that the LLC should tuck under the CDO later this evening....and it might miss the YukPen or barely clip it if it does it in time.[/quote]
Documented[/quote]

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."[/quote]

None of us like to be quoted... pro and am alike. It's just too much to live up to. BTW, I agree with wxman57 that the convection is the key until Dolly has a pronounced center. I do however disagree about the track change. I see the northerly shift of convection possibly enhancing a future weakness in the ridge and this system could be a risk all the way from NO to Brownsville in my unproffesional opinion.

* This is an opinion of an amateur S2K poster who is wrong 99% of the time.

[ColdFusion]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

20/2345 UTC 20.2N 84.7W T2.5/2.5 DOLLY -- Atlantic Ocean

20/2345 UTC 34.9N 75.4W T2.5/2.5 CRISTOBAL -- Atlantic Ocean

Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Now that IS interesting dixiebreeze, good find.

[cycloneye]

State of Texas activation will begin at 800am Monday AM.

H-72 was at 700pm
H-36 at 700am Tuesday
H-0 is set for 700pm Wed.

Evacaution and fuel teams being preped Monday for S TX.

All 34 agencies in state Hurricane Response Plan will fully activate at 800am Tuesday.

We are going to be cutting it very close if mass evac is needed for the valley. Requires at least 1300 busses for special needs.

Lots of desicions coming on Monday. That is without any track changes...I think NHC is too far south.

Jeff,any information that you may gather about preparations,evacuations etc you can post them at the thread at the top of the furum dedicated to NE Mexico /South Texas.

[stevetampa33614]

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

[/quote][/quote]


I called this move pages ago

[Pearl River]

Steve wrote

>>I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

I used to be in that number. I go way back to Camille but I enjoyed Cindy and Dennis in 2005. Then disaster struck. You get a new appreciation when you are throwing out you life's history to the side of the curb. If you're lucky like I was, you might have had a few things to salvage. If you were like Frank P [tm] in Biloxi, you were lucky to find a kitchen floor tile within a few blocks of your home. So let people get excited, let them cheer "Bring it on!!!!" Once it is on, they will know.



Steve

Well said Steve. My dad in Slidell lost a lot too, from 4ft of water in his house, 3 miles from Lake Pontchartrain. Several original WWII documents that he will never have again. Where ever she may go, our prayers will be there with you.

[Innotech]

Ive been saying this storm has a tendency to relocate its circulation northward, and it has done so from South America all the way to the tip of the Yucatan. Considering the data reporting a weakening LLC, a strong MLC and convection displaced northeast of the true center, I come to the conclusion that it is relocating its center. This is not a wishcast, nor am I saying Im right, but it makes logical sense that a storm in this situation would do this.
Sometimes I think Pro Mets get caught up in the data and dont take the simpler approach that many of us take. It is entirely possible thast some of us see things the mets overlooked, merely because we arent focused on tons of data., We have a perspective as observers, and pro mets are good, but never perfect. I think any logical opinions regarding this storm should be considered. Its sort of similar to asking a kindergartener some simple question that they can answer immediately, but that stumps college age students. Its all about perspective and observation. Dont overlook even the simplest details, and follow your gut instinct.

[Air Force Met]

That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.

I think they are a little too far south myself. The best hope is it goes b/w CRP and BRO into Kennedy county (short of falling apart...but I don't see that happening).