ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Scorpion]

Looks to be rapidly deepening.. next pass should be interesting.

[mpic]

Here's what gets me. I just got up to get ready for work so turned on the tv to catch a re-broadcast of the 10 pm news that I missed. The weather lead-in at the top of the show was that TX is out of the loop now. Then when the weather segment actually came on, he said that even though it looks like an LA landfall, the high pressure system could change that in which case we would get a direct hit (HOU).

It's like these tv guys don't understand how much we listen and believe (not any more) what they report every time they are on. Geez! That's why I come here. Thanks to all the prometsa and veterans who report and keep it real.

[Texashawk]

heh - 5:02 and still no updates on Gus... bet there's some scrambling going on at NHC...

edit: now 5:05... quite interesting

[HurryKane]

heh - 5:02 and still no updates on Gus... bet there's some scrambling going on at NHC...

I was starting to think I'd lost my ability to tell time.

[superfly]

I think they were just waiting on the center fix from recon, which just occurred.

[bahamaswx]

Recon reporting 989mb!

[RL3AO]

Uh oh. Pressure down 7mb in 2 hours and the new VDM reports a partial eyewall has developed.

URNT12 KNHC 280906
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 28/08:52:00Z
B. 17 deg 51 min N
075 deg 34 min W
C. 850 mb 1336 m
D. 42 kt
E. 249 deg 9 nm
F. 351 deg 048 kt
G. 248 deg 008 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 18 C/ 1553 m
J. 23 C/ 1551 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0607A GUSTAV OB 11
MAX FL WIND 48 KT W QUAD 08:49:40 Z

[Texashawk]

Anytime the discussion starts with "AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING..." it's always a ripping read!

[Meso]

Gustav appears to be getting his act together, definitely a lot better than 12 hours ago, but that's a given.

But looking at the IR loop, he is developing (had developed) some very cold cloud tops and is growing in size too. Appears to be wrapping around better. I think within 12 hours or so (If it manages to remain off Jamaica) we may see decent intensification

[jlauderdal]

Gustav appears to be getting his act together, definitely a lot better than 12 hours ago, but that's a given.

But looking at the IR loop, he is developing (had developed) some very cold cloud tops and is growing in size too. Appears to be wrapping around better. I think within 12 hours or so (If it manages to remain off Jamaica) we may see decent intensification

it dropped 10mb, thats not decent intensification

[Texashawk]

Gustav appears to be getting his act together, definitely a lot better than 12 hours ago, but that's a given.

But looking at the IR loop, he is developing (had developed) some very cold cloud tops and is growing in size too. Appears to be wrapping around better. I think within 12 hours or so (If it manages to remain off Jamaica) we may see decent intensification

it dropped 10mb, thats not decent intensification

I forget, what is the 'official' definition of EI?

[jlauderdal]

Gustav appears to be getting his act together, definitely a lot better than 12 hours ago, but that's a given.

But looking at the IR loop, he is developing (had developed) some very cold cloud tops and is growing in size too. Appears to be wrapping around better. I think within 12 hours or so (If it manages to remain off Jamaica) we may see decent intensification

it dropped 10mb, thats not decent intensification

I forget, what is the 'official' definition of EI?

i can help if you let me know what EI is?

[Texashawk]

it dropped 10mb, thats not decent intensification

I forget, what is the 'official' definition of EI?

i can help if you let me know what EI is?

EI = Explosive Intensification

[zaqxsw75050]

2.5 mb/hr for 12 hr = EI (correction, not 2.5 mb/ 12 hr...)

Very cold cloud top

[Texashawk]

2.5 mb/ 12 hr = EI

hmm... then by this standard. Gus is bombing like a hydrogen warhead

[Aquawind]

Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

nope, it doesnt qualify for EI, it does qualify for decent intensification though

EI it would have been 15-20 mb

[jlauderdal]

Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

aqua, you forgot about decent intensification per the nhc handbook, cmon

[Derek Ortt]

2.5 mb/ 12 hr = EI

Very cold cloud top

3mb/hr is EI

[Texashawk]

2.5 mb/ 12 hr = EI

Very cold cloud top

3mb/hr is EI

so technically, we *may* be seeing EI with Gus? The cloud tops look incredible and the system seems to have grown 30% overnight.