ATL: IKE Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

2hr movement 299 deg. at 11.5 kts. Probably just a temporary jog. It's always more noticeable near land.

can you post the garp image please with the motion over the past 2 hours

[jusforsean]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html[/quote]

Heres my scientific method lol i put my mouse pointer in the eye before the frame starts as sort of a starting point then you can see where the eye ends up n nw w or sw it seems to help me now of course this doesnt take care of the is it a wobble argument here i did see someone post a dot chart of the actual coordantes could someone post that again that was really informative tks

[jinftl]

At this rate, Ike might stay in the white 3-day cone....but seriously...nothing yet is out of line with the forecast cone....maybe the question should be did anyone give more than passing consideration to a track on the right side of the cone taking place?

Now I see why Andros is under a watch...a right side of cone track would justify it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Does Ike have a double eyewall on recon or not crazy?

not a closed one .. there was some evidence of a outer wind maxima on the outbound in the western quad but nothing in the east quad

I think this is what is going to make ike so large in the GOM.

[Just Joshing You]

If it makes landfall before the EWRC starts, will it stop and reverse?

[cycloneye]

3:25 PM EDT:

[Vortex]

I just did a 2.5 hour with garp and got a 300 heading

[Canelaw99]

At this rate, Ike might stay in the white 3-day cone....but seriously...nothing yet is out of line with the forecast cone....maybe the question should be did anyone give more than passing consideration to a track on the right side of the cone taking place?

Now I see why Andros is under a watch...a right side of cone track would justify it.

The CBS met here in S FL came on at 2 (I think it was) and was giving a recap of the 2 possible scenarios. He said that the most likely of the 3 is either the middle of the cone, or the right side of it. The right side would obviously be the worst for the Keys and the mainland and could bring hurricane gusts to Dade County. So, will be interesting to see what happens through this afternoon/evening with Ike's path....

[KWT]

2hr movement 299 deg. at 11.5 kts. Probably just a temporary jog. It's always more noticeable near land.

WOW! WNW to NW.

Just like I said, more WNW but between WNW and NW...

As wxman57 said motion probably won't last much longer but every little big longer does make a difference for somewhere upstream in Cuba.

[Stratusxpeye]

Anyone heard anything from Mattew town? I know the Morton Salt Company’s main facility is located there and a few other thing's. Looks like the eye raked through the middle of that poor island.

[bahamaswx]

Now I see why Andros is under a watch...a right side of cone track would justify it.

I've never seen a watch issued for a single island before... usually we would issue a watch/warning for the entire northern Bahamas. A watch for Andros alone is certainly the wiser choice, but it's odd nevertheless.

[Sanibel]

Need to confirm turn with Cuban radar. Could be island slot quirk. But could also be island slot quirk that allows change of track.

[TampaFl]

Cuban radar shows more w to wnw movement:

[HURRICANELONNY]

Oh No! The wobbles are back. I think someone said it will just take longer to hit Cuba. Meaning stronger,longer. Remember you can't go down the center of the cone.

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar shows more wnw to nw movement:

Radar confirms WNW.

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

A really eye-opening scenario...not seeing this evolve yet....would be a landfall in the middle keys...it is in the cone...there is no way that mainland south florida would be prepared for that...that would mean hurricane conditions at least in south dade. all preps as far as i can tell that were being made for ike have stopped....the overall sentiment is that we are in the clear....once we were taken out of forecast cone, it was deemed over....tv mets have tried to keep the 'watchful eye' line...but prob just local storm2kers who are doing that.

ok, got the rant out...that said....not time to pull the alarm for that either

At this rate, Ike might stay in the white 3-day cone....but seriously...nothing yet is out of line with the forecast cone....maybe the question should be did anyone give more than passing consideration to a track on the right side of the cone taking place?

Now I see why Andros is under a watch...a right side of cone track would justify it.

The CBS met here in S FL came on at 2 (I think it was) and was giving a recap of the 2 possible scenarios. He said that the most likely of the 3 is either the middle of the cone, or the right side of it. The right side would obviously be the worst for the Keys and the mainland and could bring hurricane gusts to Dade County. So, will be interesting to see what happens through this afternoon/evening with Ike's path....

[Aric Dunn]

Oh No! The wobbles are back. I think someone said it will just take longer to hit Cuba. Meaning stronger,longer. Remember you can't go down the center of the cone.

if this motion does continue .. there will be plenty of clearance ... with cuba and would put the keys in hurricane force winds
and south florida in the TS

[Myersgirl]

Ike will have to head WSW to hit that next NHC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.htmlplot

[Vortex]

If your along the se coast of florida beaches step outside and look to the east and southeast and there is an amazing cloud presentation associated with what appears to be the very very outer part of Ike's circulation..Simply beautiful to look at right now!