ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Category 5]

Remember how much damage a Category 2 storm can do in the Virgin Islands (Marilyn). I hope everyone down there is ready for this one.

[msbee]

MJ
bvigal wins??
what? the booby prize?
you are too funny
oh well, we got to keep laughing, right?.
all my preparations are done. call me crazy but at this point I am NOT boarding up.
but the day is still young yet.
the island is shut down and shelters will be open.
now we wait and watch

[caribepr]

MJ
bvigal wins??
what? the booby prize?
you are too funny
oh well, we got to keep laughing, right?.
all my preparations are done. call me crazy but at this point I am NOT boarding up.
but the day is still young yet.
the island is shut down and shelters will be open.
now we wait and watch

I'll call you crazy...the rain just started here and I can't even see the boats at the closest in part of the bay (usually, from this hill, I could see STT if a mountain wasn't in the way). It went from nothing to white out in two minutes. Just lettin' you know, darlin'.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/Events/2008 ... /index.php

[msbee]

MJ
bvigal wins??
what? the booby prize?
you are too funny
oh well, we got to keep laughing, right?.
all my preparations are done. call me crazy but at this point I am NOT boarding up.
but the day is still young yet.
the island is shut down and shelters will be open.
now we wait and watch

I'll call you crazy...the rain just started here and I can't even see the boats at the closest in part of the bay (usually, from this hill, I could see STT if a mountain wasn't in the way). It went from nothing to white out in two minutes. Just lettin' you know, darlin'.

yea, I get it..I get it!

[fci]

MJ
bvigal wins??
what? the booby prize?
you are too funny
oh well, we got to keep laughing, right?.
all my preparations are done. call me crazy but at this point I am NOT boarding up.
but the day is still young yet.
the island is shut down and shelters will be open.
now we wait and watch

I'll call you crazy...the rain just started here and I can't even see the boats at the closest in part of the bay (usually, from this hill, I could see STT if a mountain wasn't in the way). It went from nothing to white out in two minutes. Just lettin' you know, darlin'.

yea, I get it..I get it!

msbee:
I am one who does not board up unless I really feel it necessary.
Trust me, we had Ernesto come through here as a TS but they predicted it might be a Hurricance and my neighbors boarded up. I laughed as I did not

Having said that, if I were going to be 84 miles to the ESE of a Possible Cat 2 I would be boarding up.
NW of it, probably not since it is traditionally the weaker side.
But where you are?
I join MJ in agreeing you are a bit crazy here.

Good luck and I hope you don't regret your decision.

[TheEuropean]

Now deepening again:

Pressure 973.6 extrapolated, Winds: 86 kt FL, 62 kt SFMR

[HURAKAN]

RECON reports an extrapolated central pressure of 974 mb and winds at flying level of 86 knots.

86 knots * .90 = 77.4 knots

Not much intensification so far but the drop in pressure indicates that the winds should catch up soon.

[caribepr]

MJ
bvigal wins??
what? the booby prize?
you are too funny
oh well, we got to keep laughing, right?.
all my preparations are done. call me crazy but at this point I am NOT boarding up.
but the day is still young yet.
the island is shut down and shelters will be open.
now we wait and watch

I'll call you crazy...the rain just started here and I can't even see the boats at the closest in part of the bay (usually, from this hill, I could see STT if a mountain wasn't in the way). It went from nothing to white out in two minutes. Just lettin' you know, darlin'.

yea, I get it..I get it!

Feel the love!

[CrazyC83]

Winds likely still 75 kt, although the pressure took another drop.

[HURAKAN]

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.3 N...66.6 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85
mph. Minimum central pressure...978 mb.

[carolina_73]

URNT12 KNHC 151754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152008
A. 15/17:35:50Z
B. 15 deg 29 min N
066 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2905 m
D. 61 kt
E. 002 deg 10 nm
F. 138 deg 063 kt
G. 029 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 11 C/ 3047 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0415A OMAR OB 03
MAX FL OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 17:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL POORLY DEFINED
some good news

[HURAKAN]

[BreinLa]

Hey you guys Be Safe!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Looking at it on radar/satellite loops, it looks as though the track needs to be adjusted farther east. Probably east of St. Croix. Hurricane force winds still extend only a very short distance from the center (15nm), and the hurricane force winds remain spotty. Take a look at the latest HRD wind field analysis graphic (should be a new one soon). Even though NHC was carrying hurricane force winds all around the center at this time, there was only a tiny pocket of hurricane force winds just east of the center according to the HRD analysis.

Remember when Omar passed just about right over that buoy - no sustained hurricane force winds were measured. Bottom line is this is a tiny hurricane with an asymmetric wind field. Don't assume if it comes within 10 or 20 miles of a location that the location will actually see sustained hurricane-force winds.

[cycloneye]

Agree 57 with your assesment about the track.Good for me,but bad for our friends eastward.

[wxman57]

To put Omar's tiny wind field into better perspective, here's the zoomed out view of the 1330Z HRD wind analysis. Note that the size of Omar's hurricane-force wind area was roughly the same size as the small island of St. Croix. True, the wind field is constantly changing and the hurricane force winds will likely be a bit more extensive in another 12 hours, but a small deviation in the track will have major implications in terms of the potential wind at a location. This isn't an Ivan, Katrina, Rita, or Ike - not by a long shot.

[Gustywind]

Agree 57 with your assesment about the track.Good for me,but bad for our friends eastward.

Absolutely , not good news for Msbee and the others Leewards
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hope it's just a wobble...and no more...

[wxman57]

Agree 57 with your assesment about the track.Good for me,but bad for our friends eastward.

Absolutely , not good news for Msbee and the others Leewards
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hope it's just a wobble...and no more...

Actually, if it passes just east of St. Croix then hurricane force sustained winds may miss all the islands.

[wxman57]

New 1630Z HRD Omar wind field analysis just posted:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

Note that as of 1630Z, just under 3 hours ago, the area of hurricane-force winds had shrunk even from the 1330Z analysis. Just a tiny spec of 65kt winds west of the center. No hurricane force winds east of the center now, just a 55kt contour.